Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

 

“Maryland’s leader in public opinion polling”

 

 

 

Maryland Poll

 

President Bush Job Approval

Presidential Contest

Governor O’Malley Job Approval

Slots Constitutional Amendment

 

September 2008

 

Contact: Laslo Boyd    443-812-4883

 

 

www.gonzalesresearch.com

Methodology

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science.  He began his career as an analyst with Mason-Dixon Opinion Research and is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc. 

 

Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland since the mid 1980’s.  Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

 

Laslo V. Boyd is a partner of Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

 

Hilary Duff Gonzales is Director of Sales and Marketing for Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies.  Mrs. Gonzales has over 20 years experience promoting the state of Maryland, particularly in the tour and travel industry.

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from August 29th through September 5th, 2008.  A total of 833 registered voters in Maryland who indicated that they are likely to vote in November’s general election were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin of error (MOE), according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or race.

 

 

 

 

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         409   (49%)

 

White        609   (73%)

 

Eastern Shore/S Md  103      (12%)

Female      424   (51%)

Black        201   (24%)

Baltimore City             85      (10%)

 

Other/Ref   23 

Baltimore Suburbs     289      (35%)

 

 

Washington Subs      256      (31%)

 

 

Western Maryland    100      (12%)

Party Registration

 

 

Democrat         474   (57%)

 

 

Republican       264   (32%)

 

 

Independent       95   (11%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings are as follows:

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md

 

Baltimore City

Baltimore Suburbs

Washington Suburbs

Western Maryland

 

Calvert Co.

 

Baltimore City

 

Anne Arundel Co.

 

Montgomery Co.

 

Allegany Co.

Caroline Co.

 

Baltimore Co.

 Prince George’s Co.

Carroll Co.

Cecil Co.

 

Harford Co.

 

Frederick Co.

Charles Co.

 

Howard Co.

 

Garrett Co.

Dorchester Co.

 

 

 

Washington Co.

Kent Co.

 

 

 

 

Queen Anne’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Somerset Co.

 

 

 

 

St. Mary’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Talbot Co.

 

 

 

 

Wicomico Co.

 

 

 

 

Worcester Co.

 

 

 

 

 

Summary

 

President Bush Job Approval

 

President George Bush’s job approval rating has hit an all-time low in Maryland.  Statewide, only 23% approve of the President’s performance in office, while 69% disapprove of the job he is doing.  

 

By party, 58% of Republicans approve of the job Bush is doing and 28% disapprove; 5% of Democrats approve of the job Bush is doing and 90% disapprove; and among registered independents, only 11% approve of the job the Presidents is doing and 79% disapprove.

 

 

Bush Job Rating

Approve

Disapprove

No answer

 

 

 

 

 

September 2008

 

23%

 

69%

 

8%

March 2008

27%

64%

9%

January 2008

28%

64%

8%

January 2007

25%

68%

7%

August 2006

36%

59%

5%

April 2006

29%

67%

4%

October 2005

33%

63%

4%

October 2004

44%

53%

3%

August 2004

43%

51%

6%

June 2004

39%

54%

7%

March 2004

45%

47%

8%

February 2004

41%

53%

6%

December 2003

47%

46%

7%

August 2003

43%

48%

9%

April 2003

62%

31%

7%

September 2002

63%

28%

9%

January 2002

74%

16%

10%

May 2001

48%

34%

18%

February 2001

47%

34%

19%

 

 

It is little wonder both parties’ campaigns are trying aggressively to capture the mantel of “change” for the November election.

 

Presidential Contest

 

Among Maryland voters, 57% have a favorable opinion of Democratic nominee Barack Obama and 28% have an unfavorable opinion, while 41% have a favorable opinion of Republican nominee John McCain and 33% have an unfavorable opinion of him. 

 

Fifty-one percent have a favorable opinion of Democratic VP nominee Joe Biden and 20% have an unfavorable opinion; 35% have a favorable opinion of Republican VP nominee Sarah Palin and 24% have an unfavorable opinion of her.

 

Statewide, 52% said they would vote for Obama “if the election were held today,” while 38% said they would vote for McCain, and 10% were undecided.  

 

Eighty percent of Democrats support Obama and 87% of Republicans back McCain.  Among independents, 42% support Obama, 35% support McCain and 23% are undecided

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Most Important Issue facing State

 

The economy is far and away the number one concern for Marylanders.  Statewide, 42% said the economy is the most important issue facing the state, followed by 12% who said it was taxes, 10% who said it was education, and 8% who said health care. 

 

A look at the growth of the economy as the most important issue since the beginning of the year:

 

 

 

 

 

Governor O’Malley Job Approval

 

Governor Martin O’Malley’s overall job approval rating among Maryland voters has rebounded since earlier in the year.

 

Statewide, 45% say they approve of the job O’Malley is doing as governor (up 8 points from March), while 35% disapprove (down 13 points from March), and 20% gave no response.

 

O’Malley’s improvement is attributable to better numbers among Democrats and independents in the state.  Among Republicans, two-thirds still disapprove of the job he’s doing as governor.

A comparison by party between March and now:

 

                                         September 2008                       March 2008

                                    Approve   Disapprove              Approve   Disapprove 

 

Democrats                       59%            19%                      48%            35%

 

Republicans                     19%            65%                      17%            69%

 

Independents                   46%            33%                      39%            51%

 

 

Although O'Malley's disapproval level is higher than an incumbent might want, he has started to recover from the "negative bounce" in public support that followed the November 2007 Special Session.

 

 

O’Malley Job Approval

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

 

No opinion

 

September 2008

 

45%

 

35%

 

20%

March 2008

37%

48%

15%

January 2008

39%

49%

12%

October 2007

46%

31%

23%

March 2007

52%

21%

27%

 

 

 

 

Slots Amendment

 

Statewide, 49% say they would vote for the constitutional amendment to authorize slot machines in the state “if the election were held today,” while 43% say they would vote against it, and 8% were undecided.

 

Men (53%) are more likely than women (45%) to support slots.  Republicans are the only party bloc at this point in which a majority says they’ll vote for the amendment.

 

A majority of independents (52%) and voters from the Washington suburbs (50%) already say they will vote against the amendment

 

A look by region:

 

 

 

Support for a slots amendment has actually dropped 5 points since January (prior to the ballot wording), when 54% said they would vote to allow slot machines in the state.

 

Slots Amendment

FOR

AGAINST

Undecided

September 2008

49%

43%

8%

January 2008

54%

38%

8%

 

The public campaigns for and against slots have not yet been high-profile, but some of the shifts in support among particular groups suggests that grass roots efforts are already underway and having some impact.

 

 

Bay Bridge

 

In the aftermath of the fatal accident on the Chesapeake Bay Bridge and the subsequent safety inspections and repair work, we asked survey respondents how concerned they are. 

 

Among Marylanders, 78% see the issues surrounding the Bay Bridge as a problem: 40% say they’re a “big problem” and 38% say they’re “somewhat of a problem.”  Only 15% say they’re “not much of a problem” (12%) or “not at all a problem” (3%).

 

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

 

Approve

 

22%

Disapprove

69%

No Answer

8%

 

 

 

Party – George Bush job performance - approve or disapprove?

 

 

Party

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

 

5%

 

90%

 

5%

Republican

59%

28%

13%

Independent

11%

79%

10%

 

Gender – George Bush job performance - approve or disapprove?

 

 

Gender

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

26%

 

66%

 

8%

Women

20%

72%

8%

 

Race – George Bush job performance - approve or disapprove?

 

 

Race

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

 

White

 

30%

 

61%

 

9%

African-American

 

1%

 

93%

 

6%

Name Recognition

 

 

 

I am going to read you the names of several individuals.  After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person.  If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

 

The first (next) name is _________________.  Do you recognize that name?

 

(IF YES)  Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that person?

 

                                                                                                                      Don’t

                    Favorable        Unfavorable        Neutral          Recognize

 

 

Barack Obama                         57%                   28%                 15%                 -

 

Joe Biden                                 51%                   20%                 23%               6%

 

John McCain                            41%                   33%                 26%                 -

 

Sarah Palin                               35%                   24%                 19%               22%

QUESTION:    If the November general election for president were held today for whom would you vote: John McCain, the Republican or Barack Obama, the Democrat?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

 

Obama

 

52%

McCain

38%

Undecided

10%

 

 

Party – Presidential election?

 

 

Party

 

Obama

 

McCain

 

Undecided

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

 

80%

 

11%

 

9%

Republican

6%

87%

7%

Independent

42%

35%

23%

 

Gender – Presidential election?

 

 

Gender

 

Obama

 

McCain

 

Undecided

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

47%

 

44%

 

9%

Women

57%

32%

11%

 

Race – Presidential election?

 

 

Race

 

Obama

 

McCain

 

Undecided

 

 

 

 

 

White

 

39%

 

50%

 

11%

African- American

 

91%

 

1%

 

8%

QUESTION:    What do you think is the most important issue facing the state of Maryland today?

 

 

Economy                                              42%

Taxes                                                   12%    

Education                                             11%    

Health care                                             8%    

Cost of gasoline                                      6%

Transportation/Roads                             3%    

Crime                                                     3%    

Terrorism/security                                   3%    

Environment and pollution                       3%

Affordable housing                                  2%    

Abortion/moral issues                             2%    

Slot machines                                         2%    

Illegal immigration                                   1%    

No answer                                             2%

 

QUESTION:    Do you approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

 

Approve

 

45%

Disapprove

35%

No answer

20%

 

 

 

Party - Martin O’Malley job performance - approve or disapprove?

 

 

Party

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

 

59%

 

19%

 

22%

Republican

19%

65%

16%

Independent

46%

33%

21%

 

Gender – Martin O’Malley job performance - approve or disapprove?

 

 

Gender

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

41%

 

43%

 

16%

Women

49%

27%

24%

 

Race – Martin O’Malley job performance - approve or disapprove?

 

 

Race

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

 

White

 

43%

 

40%

 

17%

African- American

 

51%

 

20%

 

29%

QUESTION:    On this November’s general election ballot there will be a Constitutional Amendment to legalize slot machines in Maryland.  The Amendment is titled “Authorizing Video Lottery Terminals (Slot Machines) to Fund Education.”

 

It authorizes the State to issue up to five video lottery licenses for the purpose of raising revenue for education of children in public schools, prekindergarten through grade 12, public school construction and improvements, and construction of capital projects at community colleges and higher education institutions. No more than a total number of 15,000 video lottery terminals may be authorized in the State, and only one license may be issued for each specified location in Anne Arundel, Cecil, Worcester, and Allegany Counties, and Baltimore City. Any additional forms or expansion of commercial gaming in Maryland is prohibited, unless approved by a voter referendum.

 

If the election were held today, would you vote For allowing slot machines in Maryland or Against allowing slot machines in Maryland?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

 

For

 

49%

 

Against

 

43%

 

Undecided

 

8%

 

 

 

Party – Slots Amendment vote?

 

 

Party

 

For

 

Against

 

Undecided

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

 

48%

 

44%

 

7%

 

Republican

 

53%

 

38%

 

9%

 

Independent

 

38%

 

52%

 

10%

 

 

Gender – Slots Amendment vote?

 

 

Gender

 

For

 

Against

 

Undecided

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

53%

 

42%

 

5%

 

Women

 

45%

 

44%

 

11%

 

 

 

Race – Slots Amendment vote?

 

 

Race

 

For

 

Against

 

Undecided

 

 

 

 

 

White

 

51%

 

42%

 

7%

African- American

 

43%

 

46%

 

11%

 

 

 

Region - Slots Amendment vote?

 

 

Region

 

For

 

Against

 

Undecided

 

 

 

 

Eastern SH/

Southern Md

 

55%

 

41%

 

4%

Baltimore

City

 

48%

 

43%

 

9%

Baltimore

Suburbs

 

49%

 

41%

 

10%

Washington

Suburbs

 

42%

 

50%

 

8%

Western

Maryland

 

61%

 

35%

 

4%

 

QUESTION:    Would you say the issues surrounding the Bay Bridge are a big problem, somewhat of a problem, not that much of a problem, or not a problem at all?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

 

Big problem

 

40%

Somewhat of a problem

38%

Not that much of a problem

12%

Not a problem at all

3%

No answer

7%

 

 

 

 

Party - Issues surrounding the Bay Bridge?

 

 

Party

Big

Problem

Somewhat

Problem

Not much

Problem

Not at all

Problem

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

 

41%

 

39%

 

12%

 

2%

 

6%

Republican

39%

37%

11%

4%

9%

Independent

38%

36%

15%

6%

5%

 

 

 

Gender – Issues surrounding the Bay Bridge?

 

 

Gender

Big

Problem

Somewhat

Problem

Not much

Problem

Not at all

Problem

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

34%

 

38%

 

16%

 

5%

 

7%

Women

46%

38%

8%

1%

7%