Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

 

“Maryland’s leader in public opinion polling”

 

 

 

Maryland Poll

 

President Bush Job Approval

Presidential Contest

Governor O’Malley Job Approval

Slots Constitutional Amendment

 

September 2008

 

Contact: Laslo Boyd    443-812-4883

 

 

www.gonzalesresearch.com

Methodology

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science.  He began his career as an analyst with Mason-Dixon Opinion Research and is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc. 

 

Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland since the mid 1980’s.  Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

 

Laslo V. Boyd is a partner of Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

 

Hilary Duff Gonzales is Director of Sales and Marketing for Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies.  Mrs. Gonzales has over 20 years experience promoting the state of Maryland, particularly in the tour and travel industry.

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from August 29th through September 5th, 2008.  A total of 833 registered voters in Maryland who indicated that they are likely to vote in November’s general election were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin of error (MOE), according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or race.

 

 

 

 

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         409   (49%)

 

White        609   (73%)

 

Eastern Shore/S Md  103      (12%)

Female      424   (51%)

Black        201   (24%)

Baltimore City             85      (10%)

 

Other/Ref   23 

Baltimore Suburbs     289      (35%)

 

 

Washington Subs      256      (31%)

 

 

Western Maryland    100      (12%)

Party Registration

 

 

Democrat         474   (57%)

 

 

Republican       264   (32%)

 

 

Independent       95   (11%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings are as follows:

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md

 

Baltimore City

Baltimore Suburbs

Washington Suburbs

Western Maryland

 

Calvert Co.

 

Baltimore City

 

Anne Arundel Co.

 

Montgomery Co.

 

Allegany Co.

Caroline Co.

 

Baltimore Co.

 Prince George’s Co.

Carroll Co.

Cecil Co.

 

Harford Co.

 

Frederick Co.

Charles Co.

 

Howard Co.

 

Garrett Co.

Dorchester Co.

 

 

 

Washington Co.

Kent Co.

 

 

 

 

Queen Anne’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Somerset Co.

 

 

 

 

St. Mary’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Talbot Co.

 

 

 

 

Wicomico Co.

 

 

 

 

Worcester Co.

 

 

 

 

 

Summary

 

President Bush Job Approval

 

President George Bush’s job approval rating has hit an all-time low in Maryland.  Statewide, only 23% approve of the President’s performance in office, while 69% disapprove of the job he is doing.  

 

By party, 58% of Republicans approve of the job Bush is doing and 28% disapprove; 5% of Democrats approve of the job Bush is doing and 90% disapprove; and among registered independents, only 11% approve of the job the Presidents is doing and 79% disapprove.

 

 

Bush Job Rating

Approve

Disapprove

No answer

 

 

 

 

 

September 2008

 

23%

 

69%

 

8%

March 2008

27%

64%

9%

January 2008

28%

64%

8%

January 2007

25%

68%

7%

August 2006

36%

59%

5%

April 2006

29%

67%

4%

October 2005

33%

63%

4%

October 2004

44%

53%

3%

August 2004

43%

51%

6%

June 2004

39%

54%

7%

March 2004

45%

47%

8%

February 2004

41%

53%

6%

December 2003

47%

46%

7%

August 2003

43%

48%

9%

April 2003

62%

31%

7%

September 2002

63%

28%

9%

January 2002

74%

16%

10%

May 2001

48%

34%

18%

February 2001

47%

34%

19%

 

 

It is little wonder both parties’ campaigns are trying aggressively to capture the mantel of “change” for the November election.

 

Presidential Contest

 

Among Maryland voters, 57% have a favorable opinion of Democratic nominee Barack Obama and 28% have an unfavorable opinion, while 41% have a favorable opinion of Republican nominee John McCain and 33% have an unfavorable opinion of him. 

 

Fifty-one percent have a favorable opinion of Democratic VP nominee Joe Biden and 20% have an unfavorable opinion; 35% have a favorable opinion of Republican VP nominee Sarah Palin and 24% have an unfavorable opinion of her.

 

Statewide, 52% said they would vote for Obama “if the election were held today,” while 38% said they would vote for McCain, and 10% were undecided.  

 

Eighty percent of Democrats support Obama and 87% of Republicans back McCain.  Among independents, 42% support Obama, 35% support McCain and 23% are undecided

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Most Important Issue facing State

 

The economy is far and away the number one concern for Marylanders.  Statewide, 42% said the economy is the most important issue facing the state, followed by 12% who said it was taxes, 10% who said it was education, and 8% who said health care. 

 

A look at the growth of the economy as the most important issue since the beginning of the year:

 

 

 

 

 

Governor O’Malley Job Approval