Survey

Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

“Maryland’s leader in public opinion polling”

Maryland Poll

Governor O’Malley Job Approval

Need for Special Session

Slots

Tax Measures

October 2007

Contact: Patrick Gonzales 410-974-4669

www.garesearch.com

Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science. He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc.

Since the mid 1980’s, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland. Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

Laslo V. Boyd is president of Mellenbrook Policy Advisors, a consulting firm specializing in policy, planning, and communications strategies, and an associate partner of Gonzales Research. Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from October 16^th through October 21^st, 2007. A total of 839 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender, race or party affiliation.

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

Gender	Race	Region
Male 418 (50%)	White 627 (75%)	Eastern Shore/S Md 109 (13%)
Female 421 (50%)	Black 189 (23%)	Baltimore City 76 (9%)
	Other/Ref 23	Baltimore Suburbs 310 (37%)
		Washington Subs 243 (29%)
		Western Maryland 101 (12%)
Party Registration
Democrat 468 (56%)
Republican 275 (33%)
Independent 96 (11%)

Regional Groupings are as follows:

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md	Baltimore City	Baltimore Suburbs	Washington Suburbs	Western Maryland
Calvert Co.	Baltimore City	Anne Arundel Co.	Montgomery Co.	Allegany Co.
Caroline Co.		Baltimore Co.	Prince George’s Co.	Carroll Co.
Cecil Co.		Harford Co.		Frederick Co.
Charles Co.		Howard Co.		Garrett Co.
Dorchester Co.				Washington Co.
Kent Co.
Queen Anne’s Co.
Somerset Co.
St. Mary’s Co.
Talbot Co.
Wicomico Co.
Worcester Co.

Summary

Most Important Issue

We asked voters, unprompted, what they thought the most important issue facing Maryland today was. Statewide, 18% of voters say that education is the most important issue, 17% say taxes, 12% say health care, and 10% say the budget deficit facing the state. Other issues received only single-digit mention.

The most surprising finding from these results is that given the heated nature of the upcoming special session to deal with Maryland’s $1.7 billion budget deficit, only one voter-in-10 cite it as the most important issue.

Governor Martin O’Malley Job Approval

Statewide, 46% of Maryland voters say they approve of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor, 31% disapprove, and 23% have no opinion.

O’Malley Job Approval

Approve

Disapprove

No opinion

October 2007

46%

31%

23%

March 2007

52%

21%

27%

By party, 61% of Democrats in the state approve of the job he’s doing; while 65% of Republicans disapprove; among independents, 49% approve and 25% disapprove.

Since March, O’Malley’s approval rating has dropped six points, while his disapproval has jumped ten points, this due primarily to his disapproval rating among Republicans soaring from 35% in March to 65% today.

When we asked those who disapprove of the job Governor O’Malley is doing why they felt that way, 61% said it was because of his proposal to raise taxes, 17% said it was because of his proposal to legalize slots, 12% said they generally don’t like his style or manner, and 9% specifically said they thought he was “arrogant.”

Direction of State

In January of this year, 61% of Maryland voters thought the State was moving in the right direction, while only 25% thought things were moving in the wrong direction.

Today, voter attitudes are quite different. Statewide, 49% think Maryland is moving in the right direction, while 40% think things are moving in the wrong direction, with 11% offering no opinion.

As with O’Malley’s job approval, Democrats are thumbs up, and Republicans thumbs down; however among independents, a solid plurality approve of the job O’Malley’s doing, but a 52% majority think things in the State are moving in the wrong direction.

Special Session

We asked Marylanders the following: “As you may know, the Maryland General Assembly meets for 90 days each year between January and April. The Governor has called for a Special Session at the end of this month to consider his proposals to deal with the State’s 1 point 7 Billion dollar budget deficit. Which of the following better reflects your opinion?

A Special Session is the right approach because there is an urgent need to deal with the budget deficit, or

A Special Session is not needed. The budget deficit should be dealt with during the regular 90 day session that begins in January.

Statewide, 60% think the Special Session is the right approach, while 37% think a special session is not needed. Again, results break rather sharply along partisan lines, while among independents, a substantial 65% think the Special Session is the right approach.

Slots

Support for allowing slot machines into Maryland has risen to its highest point in the five years we’ve been measuring the issue.

Statewide, 59% say they favor allowing slots in Maryland, while 35% are opposed to slots, with 6% offering no response.

Slots

Favor

Oppose

No answer

October 2007

59%

35%

January 2007

53%

41%

January 2006

49%

44%

January 2005

49%

45%

August 2004

55%

38%

March 2004

54%

35%

11%

October 2003

56%

34%

10%

August 2003

57%

31%

12%

March 2003

47%

45%

January 2003

46%

40%

14%

August 2002

46%

37%

17%

Interestingly, the last time support for allowing slots was near this high was in August 2003, a period that was experiencing a budget deficit of its own.

Despite the fact that Republican lawmakers have announced that they will withhold support for any slots bill proposed during the Special Session, nearly two-thirds of Republican voters continue to favor authorizing slot machines in Maryland. In fact, across a series of questions about the possible reasons for approving slot machines, Republican voters give more intense support to slots than their Democratic counterparts.

Slots Referendum

An overwhelming 84% of Marylanders believe that the decision on whether or not to have slots should be made by the voters by having it placed on the November 2008 election ballot, while only 12% think it shouldn’t go to referendum.

Eighty percent plus support for having the slots issue go to referendum spans all demographic sub-groups.

Basis for Slots

We next asked Maryland voters their opinion on several rationales for legalizing slot machines that have been promulgated over the years.

The results:

Reason: Maryland should legalize slots to help the state horse racing industry

Response	Statewide

Strongly agree	27%
Moderately agree	24%
Moderately disagree	16%
Strongly disagree	31%
No answer	2%

Total Agree- 51%

Total Disagree- 47%

Reason: Maryland should legalize slots to raise revenue for the state

Response	Statewide

Strongly agree	42%
Moderately agree	22%
Moderately disagree	8%
Strongly disagree	27%
No answer	1%

Total Agree- 64%

Total Disagree- 35%

Reason: Maryland should legalize slots to capture gambling dollars that are currently going to neighboring states

Response	Statewide

Strongly agree	44%
Moderately agree	18%
Moderately disagree	8%
Strongly disagree	28%
No answer	2%

Total Agree- 62%

Total Disagree- 36%

Tax Measures

Finally, we asked Marylanders their opinion on several of the tax measures contained in Governor O’Malley’s Special Session proposals.

Thirty-five percent favor “increasing the state sales tax rate from 5 percent to 6 percent to help reduce the budget deficit,” while 63% oppose this, with 2% giving no opinion.

By party, 47% of Democrats favor a penny increase in the sales tax to help reduce the deficit and 51% oppose it, 16% of Republicans are in favor, 83% opposed, and 31% of independents favor and 65% oppose.

On the proposed corporate income tax hike, 59% favor “increasing the state corporate income tax rate from 7 percent to 8 percent to help reduce the budget deficit,” while 38% oppose a corporate tax increase and 3% had no opinion.

By party, 69% of Democrats favor this 14% increase in the corporate income tax rate to help reduce the deficit and 29% oppose it, 40% of Republicans favor it and 56% oppose it and 63% of independents are in favor of an increase in the corporate income tax rate and 32% oppose it.

Statewide, 58% favor “increasing the state income tax rate for individuals earning more than $150,000 annually and households earning more than $200,000 annually to help reduce the budget deficit,” while 41% oppose it.

By party, 73% of Democrats favor an income tax increase on individuals earning more than $150,000 annually and households earning more than $200,000 and 26% oppose it, 32% of Republicans favor it and 67% oppose it and 59% of independents favor it and 38% oppose it.

QUESTION: What do you think is the most important issue facing the state of Maryland today?

Education 18%

Taxes 17%

Health care 12%

State budget deficit 10%

Crime 7%

Economy 6%

Illegal immigration 6%

Environment and pollution 5%

Growth and development 4%

Transportation/Roads 4%

Slots 3%

Affordable housing 2%

Jobs and unemployment 2%

Security 2%

No answer 2%

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide

Approve	46%
Disapprove	31%
No answer	23%

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor?

Party	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer

Democrat	61%	12%	27%
Republican	19%	65%	16%
Independent	49%	26%	25%

Gender – Approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor?

Gender	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer

Men	39%	36%	25%
Women	53%	26%	21%

Race – Approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor?

Race	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer

White	43%	38%	19%
African- American	56%	9%	35%

Region - Approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor?

Region

Approve

Disapprove

Answer

Eastern Shore/ Southern MD

38%

36%

26%

Baltimore City

69%

21%

10%

Baltimore Suburbs

40%

27%

33%

Washington Suburbs

57%

26%

17%

Western Maryland

29%

58%

13%

Among those who Disapprove

QUESTION: What is the number one reason you disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor?

His proposal to raise taxes 61%
His proposal to legalize slots 17%
His style/manner 12%
He’s arrogant 9%
No answer 1%

QUESTION: Overall, do you think things in Maryland are moving in the right direction or do you think things are moving in the wrong direction?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide

Right direction	49%
Wrong direction	40%
No Answer	11%

Party – Right direction or Wrong direction?

Party	Right Direction	Wrong Direction	No Answer

Democrat	68%	22%	10%
Republican	21%	66%	13%
Independent	38%	52%	10%

Gender – Right direction or Wrong direction?

Gender	Right Direction	Wrong Direction	No Answer

Men	43%	49%	8%
Women	55%	31%	14%

Race – Right direction or Wrong direction?

Race	Right Direction	Wrong Direction	No Answer

White	44%	44%	12%
African- American	65%	26%	9%

QUESTION: As you may know, the Maryland General Assembly meets for 90 days each year between January and April. The Governor has called for a Special Session at the end of this month to consider his proposals to deal with the State’s 1 point 7 Billion dollar budget deficit. Which of the following better reflects your opinion? (ORDER ROTATED)

A Special Session is the right approach because there is an urgent need to deal with the budget deficit, or

A Special Session is not needed. The budget deficit should be dealt with during the regular 90 day session that begins in January.

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide

Right approach	60%
Not needed	37%
No Answer	3%

Party - A Special Session is the right approach or a Special Session is not needed?

Party	Right Approach	Not Needed	No Answer

Democrat	71%	27%	2%
Republican	39%	56%	5%
Independent	65%	32%	3%

Gender - A Special Session is the right approach or a Special Session is not needed?

Party	Right Approach	Not Needed	No Answer

Male	54%	41%	5%
Female	66%	33%	1%

QUESTION: Do you favor or oppose allowing slot machines in Maryland?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide

Favor	59%
Oppose	35%
No answer	6%

Party - Favor or oppose allowing slot machines in Maryland?

Party	Favor	Oppose	No Answer

Democrat	58%	36%	6%
Republican	64%	31%	5%
Independent	48%	45%	7%

Gender – Favor or oppose allowing slot machines in Maryland?

Gender	Favor	Oppose	No Answer

Men	63%	30%	7%
Women	55%	40%	5%

Race – Favor or oppose allowing slot machines in Maryland?

Race	Favor	Oppose	No Answer

White	61%	34%	5%
African- American	53%	39%	8%

QUESTION: Would you favor or oppose allowing voters to decide whether or not slot machines should be legalized in Maryland by having a referendum placed on the November 2008 election ballot?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide

Favor	84%
Oppose	12%
No answer	4%

Party - Favor or oppose slots referendum?

Party	Favor	Oppose	No Answer

Democrat	82%	12%	6%
Republican	86%	13%	1%
Independent	88%	10%	2%

Gender – Favor or oppose slots referendum?

Gender	Favor	Oppose	No Answer

Men	83%	14%	3%
Women	85%	10%	5%

Race – Favor or oppose slots referendum?

Race	Favor	Oppose	No Answer

White	85%	11%	4%
African- American	80%	15%	5%

“Please indicate whether you strongly agree, moderately agree, moderately disagree, or strongly disagree with the following statements involving Governor O’Malley’s proposal to legalize slot machines in Maryland:”

QUESTION: Maryland should legalize slots to help the state horse racing industry?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide

Strongly agree	27%
Moderately agree	24%
Moderately disagree	16%
Strongly disagree	31%
No answer	2%

Total Agree- 51%

Total Disagree- 47%

Party – Maryland should legalize slots to help the state horse racing industry?

Party	Strongly Agree	Moderately Agree	Moderately Disagree	Strongly Disagree	No Answer

Democrat	29%	24%	18%	26%	3%
Republican	25%	27%	14%	33%	1%
Independent	22%	14%	13%	50%	1%

Gender - Maryland should legalize slots to help the state horse racing industry?

Gender	Strongly Agree	Moderately Agree	Moderately Disagree	Strongly Disagree	No Answer

Male	29%	28%	16%	25%	2%
Female	25%	20%	16%	37%	2%

QUESTION: Maryland should legalize slots to raise revenue for the state?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide

Strongly agree	42%
Moderately agree	22%
Moderately disagree	8%
Strongly disagree	27%
No answer	1%

Total Agree- 64%

Total Disagree- 35%

Party – Maryland should legalize slots to raise revenue for the state?

Party	Strongly Agree	Moderately Agree	Moderately Disagree	Strongly Disagree	No Answer

Democrat	39%	27%	8%	25%	1%
Republican	49%	14%	8%	28%	1%
Independent	38%	24%	6%	32%	-

Gender - Maryland should legalize slots to raise revenue for the state?

Gender	Strongly Agree	Moderately Agree	Moderately Disagree	Strongly Disagree	No Answer

Male	40%	31%	6%	22%	1%
Female	44%	13%	10%	32%	1%

QUESTION: Maryland should legalize slots to capture gambling dollars that are currently going to neighboring states?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide

Strongly agree	44%
Moderately agree	18%
Moderately disagree	8%
Strongly disagree	28%
No answer	2%

Total Agree- 62%

Total Disagree- 36%

Party – Maryland should legalize slots to capture gambling dollars that are currently going to neighboring states?

Party	Strongly Agree	Moderately Agree	Moderately Disagree	Strongly Disagree	No Answer

Democrat	41%	23%	8%	26%	2%
Republican	52%	14%	8%	25%	1%
Independent	36%	6%	6%	50%	2%

Gender - Maryland should legalize slots to capture gambling dollars that are currently going to neighboring states?

Gender	Strongly Agree	Moderately Agree	Moderately Disagree	Strongly Disagree	No Answer

Male	45%	21%	8%	23%	3%
Female	43%	15%	8%	33%	1%

“The Governor has proposed several tax measures to help deal with Maryland’s 1 point 7 Billion dollar budget deficit.”

QUESTION: Do you favor or oppose increasing the state sales tax rate from 5 percent to 6 percent to help reduce the budget deficit?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide

Favor	35%
Oppose	63%
No answer	2%

Party - State sales tax rate from 5 percent to 6 percent?

Party	Favor	Oppose	No Answer

Democrat	47%	51%	2%
Republican	16%	83%	1%
Independent	31%	65%	4%

Gender – State sales tax rate from 5 percent to 6 percent?

Gender	Favor	Oppose	No Answer

Men	34%	64%	2%
Women	36%	62%	2%

QUESTION: Do you favor or oppose increasing the state corporate income tax rate from 7 percent to 8 percent to help reduce the budget deficit?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide

Favor	59%
Oppose	38%
No answer	3%

Party - State corporate income tax rate from 7 percent to 8 percent?

Party	Favor	Oppose	No Answer

Democrat	69%	29%	2%
Republican	40%	56%	4%
Independent	63%	32%	5%

Gender – State corporate income tax rate from 7 percent to 8 percent?

Gender	Favor	Oppose	No Answer

Men	57%	41%	2%
Women	61%	35%	4%

QUESTION: Do you favor or oppose increasing the state income tax rate for individuals earning more than $150,000 annually and households earning more than $200,000 annually to help reduce the budget deficit?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide