Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

 

“Maryland’s leader in public opinion polling”

 

 

 

 

Maryland Poll

 

Governor O’Malley Job Approval

Smoking Ban

Death Penalty

Attorney General Alberto Gonzales

 

March 2007

 

Contact: Patrick Gonzales    410-974-4669

 

 

www.garesearch.com

Methodology

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science.  He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc. 

 

Since the mid 1980’s, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland.  Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

 

Laslo V. Boyd is president of Mellenbrook Policy Advisors, a consulting firm specializing in policy, planning, and communications strategies, and an associate partner of Gonzales Research.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

 

Together they have formed a firm called Gonzales/Boyd Political Consulting, specializing in offering research and strategy development for political candidates and those looking to shape public policy.  Visit their web site at www.gonzalesboyd.com

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from March 19th through March 22nd, 2007.  A total of 820 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender, race or party affiliation.

 

 

 

 

 

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         407   (50%)

 

White        623   (76%)

 

Eastern Shore/S Md  112      (14%)

Female      413   (50%)

Black        179   (22%)

Baltimore City             74        (9%)

 

Other/Ref   18 

Baltimore Suburbs     284      (35%)

 

 

Washington Subs      250      (30%)

 

 

Western Maryland    100      (12%)

Party Registration

 

 

Democrat         460   (56%)

 

 

Republican       259   (32%)

 

 

Independent     101   (12%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings are as follows:

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md

 

Baltimore City

Baltimore Suburbs

Washington Suburbs

Western Maryland

 

Calvert Co.

 

Baltimore City

 

Anne Arundel Co.

 

Montgomery Co.

 

Allegany Co.

Caroline Co.

 

Baltimore Co.

 Prince George’s Co.

Carroll Co.

Cecil Co.

 

Harford Co.

 

Frederick Co.

Charles Co.

 

Howard Co.

 

Garrett Co.

Dorchester Co.

 

 

 

Washington Co.

Kent Co.

 

 

 

 

Queen Anne’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Somerset Co.

 

 

 

 

St. Mary’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Talbot Co.

 

 

 

 

Wicomico Co.

 

 

 

 

Worcester Co.

 

 

 

 

 

Summary

 

Governor Martin O’Malley Job Approval

 

Statewide, 52% of Maryland voters say they approve of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor, 21% say they disapprove, while 27% are not yet able to rate O’Malley as his first legislative session nears an end.

 

By party, 66% of Democrats in the state approve of the job he’s doing and 13% disapprove, while 29% of Republicans approve and 35% disapprove.  Among independents 46% approve of the job O’Malley is doing as governor and 22% disapprove.

 

 

Approval of the job the Governor is doing runs very high in his base of Baltimore City (69%) and the Washington suburbs (64%).

 

 

 

General Assembly Job Approval

 

A plurality of 39% approve overall of the job the Maryland General Assembly is doing this year, while 28% disapprove, and 33% offer no opinion.

 

With regard to the general performance of the General Assembly, Democrats are relatively content (44% approve and 20% disapprove), Republicans are somewhat less than enamored (32% approve and 41% disapprove), and independents are mixed (34% approve and 32% disapprove).

 

 

Smoking Ban

 

With House and Senate versions of a smoking ban in conference committee, support for it remains strong among voters in Maryland. 

 

Statewide, 72% favor a ban on smoking in all bars and restaurants in Maryland (up 2 points from January), while 23% are opposed to a ban (down 1 point), and 5% had no opinion.

 

 

Death Penalty

 

When asked about the death penalty in the state, a 57% majority of Marylanders say they favor it, 37% are opposed to it, and 6% gave no response.  These results represent a 5 point drop in support for the death penalty from five years ago when we last asked the question.

 

 

Death Penalty 

 

Favor

Oppose

No answer

 

 

 

 

 

March 2007

 

57%

 

37%

 

6%

 

May 2001

 

62%

 

33%

 

5%

 

 

Attitudes toward the death penalty in Maryland cut sharply along party lines: 46% of Democrats favor it and 48% oppose it; 77% of Republicans favor it and 20% oppose; and 54% of independents favor it and 31% oppose it.

 

We next asked respondents the following: “What do you think is the more appropriate sentence for someone convicted of first degree murder:  The death penalty or life in prison with no possibility of parole?”  

 

In this context, a 46% plurality says that life with no parole is a more appropriate sentence, 42% say that the death penalty is the more appropriate sentence, and 12% give no response.

 

As these results show, when given an alternative, absolute support for the death penalty is less than first appears, dropping to 35% among Democrats, 56% among Republicans, and 39% among independents.

 

With a bill to ban the death penalty in the state failing to get out of the Senate Judiciary Committee by just one vote this year, the issue will likely be revisited in the future.

 

 

Assault Weapons

 

Statewide, 66% of voters say they favor a ban on assault weapons in Maryland, while 32% say they oppose it.

 

Seventy-five percent of women favor an assault weapons ban.

 

 

Attorney General Alberto Gonzales

 

At this point, Maryland voters are not convinced Attorney General Alberto Gonzales should resign due to the controversy surrounding the firing of U.S. attorneys.  Statewide, 33% say he should resign because of these firings, 36% say he shouldn’t, and 31% are not sure.

 

Current attitudes break along predictable partisan lines: 45% of Democrats say he should resign and 22% say he shouldn’t; only 14% of Republicans say he should resign and 59% say he shouldn’t; and among independents, 24% say he should resign and 40% say he shouldn’t.

 

Given that this controversy is still unfolding, what facts are or are not unearthed over the ensuing days and weeks will likely determine Gonzales’s fate.  

 

 

QUESTION:    Do you approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Approve

52%

Disapprove

21%

No answer

27%

 

 

 

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor?

 

 

Party

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

Democrat

66%

13%

21%

Republican

29%

35%

36%

Independent

46%

22%

32%

 

 

Gender – Approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor?

 

 

Gender

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

Men

45%

27%

28%

Women

59%

15%

26%

 

 

Race – Approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor?

 

 

Race

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

White

50%

24%

26%

African- American

 

59%

 

12%

 

29%

 

Region - Approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor?

 

Region

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern MD

 

45%

 

23%

 

32%

 

Baltimore City

 

69%

 

16%

 

15%

Baltimore Suburbs

 

47%

 

29%

 

24%

Washington Suburbs

 

64%

 

11%

 

25%

Western Maryland

 

33%

 

24%

 

43%

 

 

QUESTION:    Overall, do you approve or disapprove of the job the Maryland General Assembly is doing this year?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Approve

39%

Disapprove

28%

No answer

33%

 

 

 

 

 

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job the Maryland General Assembly is doing?

 

 

Party

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

Democrat

44%

20%

36%

Republican

32%

41%

27%

Independent

34%

32%

34%

 

 

 

QUESTION:    Do you favor or oppose the death penalty in Maryland?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Favor

57%

Oppose

37%

No Answer

6%

 

 

 

Party - Favor or oppose the death penalty?

 

 

Party

Favor

Oppose

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

Democrat

46%

48%

6%

Republican

77%

20%

3%

Independent

54%

31%

15%

 

 

Gender – Favor or oppose the death penalty?

 

 

Gender

Favor

Oppose

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

Men

63%

32%

5%

Women

51%

42%

7%

 

 

Race – Favor or oppose the death penalty?

 

 

Race

Favor

Oppose

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

White

65%

30%

5%

African- American

 

29%

 

61%

 

10%

 

QUESTION:    What do you think is the more appropriate sentence for someone convicted of first degree murder:  The death penalty OR life in prison with no possibility of parole?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Death penalty

42%

Life/no parole

46%

No Answer

12%

 

 

 

Party - More appropriate: death penalty or life in prison with no parole?

 

 

Party

Death

Penalty

Life w/o

Parole

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

Democrat

35%

56%

9%

Republican

56%

29%

15%

Independent

39%

43%

18%

 

 

 

 

Cross-tab –Death Penalty Position by More Appropriate Sentence

 

 

 

Death

Penalty

Life w/o

Parole

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

Favor death penalty

72%

16%

12%

Oppose death penalty

-

91%

9%

No answer

22%

53%

24%

 

 

 

 

QUESTION:    Would you favor or oppose legislation that would ban smoking in all restaurants and bars in Maryland?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Favor

72%

Oppose

23%

Not Sure

5%

 

 

 

Party - Favor or oppose smoking ban?

 

 

Party

Favor

Oppose

Not Sure

 

 

 

 

Democrat

77%

20%

3%

Republican

65%

26%

9%

Independent

66%

28%

6%

 

QUESTION:    Do you favor or oppose banning assault weapons in Maryland?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Favor

66%

Oppose

32%

No Answer

2%

 

 

 

 

Gender – Favor or oppose banning assault weapons in Maryland?

 

 

Gender

Favor

Oppose

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

Men

57%

41%

2%

Women

75%

23%

2%

 

QUESTION:    In light of the controversy surrounding the firing of U.S. attorneys, do you think Attorney General Alberto Gonzales should resign, or not?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Yes, resign

33%

No, don’t resign

36%

Not sure

31%

 

 

 

Party – Should Attorney General Alberto Gonzales resign, or not?

 

 

Party

Yes

No

Not

Sure

 

 

 

 

Democrat

45%

22%

33%

Republican

14%

59%

27%

Independent

24%

40%

36%