Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

“Maryland’s leader in public opinion polling”

Maryland Poll

Most Important Issue

Governor’s Contest

President Barack Obama

Senator Barbara Mikulski

Economy

January 2010

Contact: Laslo Boyd 443-812-4883

www.gonzalesresearch.com

Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science. He began his career as an analyst with Mason-Dixon Opinion Research and is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc.

Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland since the mid 1980’s. Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

Laslo V. Boyd is a partner of Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

Hilary Duff Gonzales is Director of Sales and Marketing for Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies.  Mrs. Gonzales has over 20 years experience promoting the state of Maryland, particularly in the tour and travel industry.

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from January 13^th through January 17^th, 2010. A total of 816 registered voters in Maryland who are likely to vote in the 2010 general election were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin of error (MOE), according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or race.

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

Gender	Race	Region
Male 406 (50%)	White 599 (73%)	Eastern Shore/S Md 111 (13%)
Female 410 (50%)	Black 196 (24%)	Baltimore City 70 (9%)
	Other/Ref 21	Baltimore Suburbs 301 (37%)
		Washington Subs 236 (29%)
		Western Maryland 98 (12%)
Party Registration
Democrat 457 (56%)
Republican 260 (32%)
Independent 99 (12%)

Regional Groupings are as follows:

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md	Baltimore City	Baltimore Suburbs	Washington Suburbs	Western Maryland
Calvert Co.	Baltimore City	Anne Arundel Co.	Montgomery Co.	Allegany Co.
Caroline Co.		Baltimore Co.	Prince George’s Co.	Carroll Co.
Cecil Co.		Harford Co.		Frederick Co.
Charles Co.		Howard Co.		Garrett Co.
Dorchester Co.				Washington Co.
Kent Co.
Queen Anne’s Co.
Somerset Co.
St. Mary’s Co.
Talbot Co.
Wicomico Co.
Worcester Co.

Summary

Most Important Issue facing State

The economy persists as the most important issue for Maryland voters, jumping eleven points since September. Statewide, 54% of the electorate says that the economy is the most important issue facing the state, while 11% say it’s health care, 10% taxes, 8% the budget deficit, and 7% education.

The “economy” has as the number one issue for Marylanders over the past two years:

Governor Martin O’Malley Job Approval

A plurality of voters continues to approve of Governor Martin O’Malley’s performance in office, but his job rating is lower than an incumbent would prefer 10 months before an election.

Statewide, 46% of Maryland voters overall say they approve of the job O’Malley is doing as governor, while 36% disapprove of the job he is doing, with 18% offering no opinion.

By party, 64% of Democrats approve of the job O’Malley is doing as governor and 21% disapprove; while among Republicans, 18% approve of the job O’Malley is doing and 62% disapprove.

Among registered independents, 39% of independents approve of the job O’Malley is doing and 35% disapprove.

O’Malley Job Approval	Approve	Disapprove	No opinion
January 2010	46%	36%	18%
September 2009	48%	37%	15%
January 2009	49%	37%	14%
September 2008	45%	35%	20%
March 2008	37%	48%	15%
January 2008	39%	49%	12%
October 2007	46%	31%	23%
March 2007	52%	21%	27%

Governor O’Malley’s lowest job approval ratings came in the aftermath of the November 2007 special session

Governor Martin O’Malley’s highest job approval rating was recorded during his first legislative session

Gubernatorial Match-up

In an election match-up with former governor Bob Ehrlich, O’Malley garners 48%, while Ehrlich captures 39% and 13% are undecided.

The results by party and race:

O’Malley Ehrlich Undecided

Democrats 73% 16% 11%

Republicans 8% 81% 11%

Independents 39% 36% 25%

White 39% 49% 12%

African-American 75% 9% 16%

The key finding here is Ehrlich’s vote among Democrats. When he won in 2002, he collected 30% of the Democratic vote. Any GOP candidate in 2010 will need to draw near Ehrlich’s showing in 2002.

Among those who say the economy is the most important issue facing the state, 45% say they’ll vote for O’Malley, 42% say they’d vote for Ehrlich; among those who say health care is the most important issue, 73% say they’ll vote for O’Malley, 23% say they’d vote for Ehrlich; and among those who say taxes are the most important issue, only 9% say they’ll vote for O’Malley, with 74% saying they’d vote for Ehrlich.

O’Malley’s 9 point margin today is 2 points less than September.

Gubernatorial Match-up	O’Malley	Ehrlich	Undecided
January 2010	48%	39%	13%
September 2009	49%	38%	13%

President Barack Obama Job Approval

Statewide, 56% approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as president, 30% disapprove, and 14% offered no opinion.

Obama Job Approval	Approve	Disapprove	No opinion
January 2010	56%	30%	14%
September 2009	58%	31%	11%
January 2009	80%	11%	9%

Approval of the job Obama is doing remains extremely high among Democrats (81%) and African-Americans (86%).

Senator Barbara Mikulski Job Approval

The economic unrest and unease many feel has not had much effect on Marylanders attitude toward 4-term incumbent Senator Barbara Mikulski.

Statewide, 64% of voters approve of the job Mikulski is doing as senator, while 23% disapprove.

Mikulski Job Approval	Approve	Disapprove	No opinion
January 2010	64%	23%	13%
September 2009	67%	22%	11%
October 2004	59%	25%	16%
June 2004	65%	21%	14%
March 2004	62%	23%	15%

Mikulski has averaged 67% of the vote in her 4 previous elections and she appears headed toward another easy re-election

Budget Deficit and Economic Conditions

We read voters the following question: “Maryland is facing a large budget deficit this year.  Some argue that the deficit is the result of the problems in the overall economy that have led to declining tax revenues.  Others argue that the deficit is the result of too much spending by government.  Which argument more accurately reflects your view?”

Statewide, 38% say the deficit is the result of the problems in the overall economy that have led to declining tax revenues, 44% say the deficit is the result of too much spending by government, with18% not sure.

Fifty-seven percent of Democrats think the deficit is the result of declining tax revenues, while 71% of Republicans think it’s because of too much spending. Among independents, 38% say the deficit is the result of declining tax revenues and 46% say it’s because of too much spending.

Only 7% of Marylanders say that their family’s financial situation is better today than a year ago, while 36% say it’s worse today than a year ago, and 57% say that their family’s financial situation is about the same today as a year ago.

The results by race:

Better Worse Same

White 7% 31% 62%

African-American 6% 51% 43%

Marylanders at this point, however, are somewhat optimistic about the next year – 42% think economic conditions in Maryland will be better a year from now, 23% think economic conditions in Maryland will be worse a year from now, and 35% think they’ll be about the same as they are today.

Fifty-one percent of Democrats think economic conditions in Maryland will be better a year from now, while 36% of Republicans think they will be worse.

Among African-Americans, 60% think economic conditions will be better a year from now.

Airport Security

Statewide, 42% think the federal government has done enough to improve airport security, while 53% say the federal government has not done enough.

The results by party:

Done Enough Not Enough Not Sure

Democrats 44% 50% 6%

Republicans 36% 63% 1%

Independents 48% 39% 13%

Seventy-eight percent of Marylanders would be willing to undergo longer and more invasive bag checks and passenger searches when flying in order to improve airport and airline security, while 15% would not be willing to experience longer and more intrusive searches.

QUESTION: What do you think is the most important issue facing the state of Maryland today?

Economy 54%

Health care 11%

Taxes 10%

Budget deficit 8%

Education 7%

Crime 4%

Environment 2%

Transportation/Roads 1%

Lack of honesty in government 1%

Abortion/moral issues 1%

No answer 1%

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barack Obama is doing as president?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Approve	56%
Disapprove	30%
No answer	14%

Party - Barack Obama job performance - approve or disapprove?

Party	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
Democrat	81%	10%	9%
Republican	17%	63%	20%
Independent	44%	37%	19%

Race – Barack Obama job performance - approve or disapprove?

Race	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
White	46%	39%	15%
African- American	86%	3%	11%

Gender – Barack Obama job performance - approve or disapprove?

Gender	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
Men	48%	35%	17%
Women	64%	25%	11%

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Approve	46%
Disapprove	36%
No answer	18%

Party - Martin O’Malley job performance - approve or disapprove?

Party	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
Democrat	64%	21%	15%
Republican	18%	62%	20%
Independent	39%	35%	26%

Race – Martin O’Malley job performance - approve or disapprove?

Race	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
White	43%	42%	15%
African- American	54%	18%	28%

Gender – Martin O’Malley job performance - approve or disapprove?

Gender	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
Men	42%	42%	16%
Women	50%	30%	20%

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barbara Mikulski is doing as a United States Senator?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Approve	64%
Disapprove	23%
No answer	13%

Party - Barbara Mikulski job performance - approve or disapprove?

Party	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
Democrat	79%	8%	13%
Republican	39%	49%	12%
Independent	61%	23%	16%

Race – Barbara Mikulski job performance - approve or disapprove?

Race	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
White	60%	28%	12%
African- American	76%	9%	15%

Gender – Barbara Mikulski job performance - approve or disapprove?

Gender	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
Men	59%	26%	15%
Women	69%	20%	11%

QUESTION: If the November 2010 general election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Martin O’Malley, the Democrat and Bob Ehrlich, the Republican?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
O’Malley	48%
Ehrlich	39%
Undecided	13%

Party – O’Malley vs. Ehrlich match-up?

Party	O’Malley	Ehrlich	Undecided
Democrat	73%	16%	11%
Republican	8%	81%	11%
Independent	39%	36%	25%

Race – O’Malley vs. Ehrlich match-up?

Race	O’Malley	Ehrlich	Undecided
White	39%	49%	12%
African- American	75%	9%	16%

Gender – O’Malley vs. Ehrlich match-up?

Gender	O’Malley	Ehrlich	Undecided
Men	44%	42%	14%
Women	52%	36%	12%

Top 3 Most Important Issues by Gubernatorial Vote Cross-tab

Most Import Issue	O’Malley	Ehrlich	Undecided
Economy	45%	42%	13%
Health care	73%	23%	4%
Taxes	9%	74%	17%

QUESTION: Maryland is facing a large budget deficit this year.  Some argue that the deficit is the result of the problems in the overall economy that have led to declining tax revenues.  Others argue that the deficit is the result of too much spending by government.  Which argument more accurately reflects your view?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Declining tax revenues	38%
Too much spending	44%
No answer	18%

Party - Declining tax revenues or too much spending?

Party	Declining tax Revenues	Too much Spending	No Answer
Democrat	57%	28%	15%
Republican	5%	71%	24%
Independent	38%	46%	16%

QUESTION: Do you think the federal government has done enough to improve airport security since 9/11, or not?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Yes	42%
No	53%
No answer	5%

Party – Has the federal government has done enough to improve airport security since 9/11, or not?

Party	Yes	No	No Answer
Democrat	44%	50%	6%
Republican	36%	63%	1%
Independent	48%	39%	13%

QUESTION: Would you be willing or not willing to experience longer and more intrusive bag checks and passenger searches when flying in order to improve airport and airline security?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Willing	78%
Not willing	15%
No answer	7%

Party – Willing or not willing to experience longer and more intrusive bag checks and passenger searches?

Party	Willing	Not willing	No Answer
Democrat	81%	11%	8%
Republican	76%	19%	5%
Independent	69%	23%	8%

QUESTION: How would you describe your family’s financial situation: would you say you’re doing better today than a year ago, worse today than a year ago, or about the same today as a year ago?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Better	7%
Worse	36%
Same	57%

Party – Financial situation compared to a year ago?

Party	Better	Worse	Same
Democrat	7%	38%	55%
Republican	8%	30%	62%
Independent	5%	42%	53%

Race – Financial situation compared to a year ago?

Race	Better	Worse	Same
White	7%	31%	62%
African- American	6%	51%	43%

QUESTION: Do you think economic conditions in Maryland will be better a year from now, worse a year from now, or about the same as they are today?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Better	42%
Worse	23%
Same	35%

Party – Economic conditions in Maryland a year from now?

Party	Better	Worse	Same
Democrat	51%	16%	33%
Republican	28%	36%	36%
Independent	38%	20%	42%

Race – Economic conditions in Maryland a year from now?

Race	Better	Worse	Same
White	36%	26%	38%
African- American	60%	14%	26%