Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

“Maryland’s leader in public opinion polling”

Maryland Poll

Governor O’Malley Job Approval

Slots Referendum

Death Penalty

Democratic Presidential Contest

Republican Presidential Contest

January 2008

Contact: Laslo Boyd 443-812-4883

www.gonzalesresearch.com

Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science. He began his career as an analyst with Mason-Dixon Opinion Research and is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc.

Since the mid 1980’s, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland. Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

Laslo V. Boyd is a partner of Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

Hilary Duff Gonzales is Director of Sales and Marketing for Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies.  Mrs. Gonzales has over 20 years experience promoting the state of Maryland, particularly in the tour and travel industry.

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from January 4^th through January 11^th, 2008. A total of 848 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin of error (MOE), according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender, age or race.

The MOE for the Democratic sample of presidential contenders is plus or minus 5.3 percentage points. The MOE for the Republican sample of presidential contenders is plus or minus 6.1 percentage points.

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

Gender	Race	Region
Male 425 (50%)	White 620 (73%)	Eastern Shore/S Md 110 (13%)
Female 423 (50%)	Black 201 (24%)	Baltimore City 84 (10%)
	Other/Ref 27	Baltimore Suburbs 298 (35%)
		Washington Subs 259 (31%)
		Western Maryland 97 (11%)
Party Registration
Democrat 474 (56%)
Republican 267 (31%)
Independent 107 (13%)

Regional Groupings are as follows:

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md	Baltimore City	Baltimore Suburbs	Washington Suburbs	Western Maryland
Calvert Co.	Baltimore City	Anne Arundel Co.	Montgomery Co.	Allegany Co.
Caroline Co.		Baltimore Co.	Prince George’s Co.	Carroll Co.
Cecil Co.		Harford Co.		Frederick Co.
Charles Co.		Howard Co.		Garrett Co.
Dorchester Co.				Washington Co.
Kent Co.
Queen Anne’s Co.
Somerset Co.
St. Mary’s Co.
Talbot Co.
Wicomico Co.
Worcester Co.

Summary

Most Important Issue

We asked voters, unprompted, what they thought the most important issue was facing Maryland today.

Statewide, 29% of voters say that taxes are the most important issue facing the state, 13% say it’s health care, 13% say education and 10% say the most important issue is the economy and jobs. Other issues received only mid single-digit mention.

Never before in the many years we have been polling Maryland voters have taxes been the number one issue or registered anywhere near this high.

Governor Martin O’Malley Job Approval

Statewide, 39% of Maryland voters say they approve of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor (down 7 points from October, one week before the start of the special session), 49% disapprove (up 18 points), and 12% have no opinion.

O’Malley Job Approval	Approve	Disapprove	No opinion
January 2008	39%	49%	12%
October 2007	46%	31%	23%
March 2007	52%	21%	27%

Since October, the Governor’s disapproval rating among Democrats has tripled, jumping 24 points, among Republicans it has increased 13 points, and among independents it has gone up from 26% to 39%.

Direction of State

Statewide, 41% think Maryland is moving in the right direction, 50% think things are moving in the wrong direction, while 9% had no opinion. One year ago, 61% of Marylanders thought things were moving in the right direction, while only 25% thought things were moving in the wrong direction. That’s a 45 point swing in 12 months (plus 36 to minus 9).

Special Session Approval

We asked Marylanders the following: “With regard to the overall actions taken on the state budget by the Maryland General Assembly during the special session in November, would you say you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove, or would you say you don’t really know enough to have an opinion?

Statewide, only 27% of voters approve of the actions taken by the General Assembly (a mere 3% “strongly” and 24% “somewhat”), while 48% disapprove (18% “somewhat”

and 30% “strongly”).

By party, 40% of Democrats approve and 33% disapprove; 8% of Republicans approve and 72% disapprove; and among independents, 18% approve and 54% disapprove.

By race, 24% of whites approve and 57% disapprove; and among black voters, 37% approve and 21% disapprove.

In the Baltimore suburbs, the region that gave Bob Ehrlich his victory in 2002, 20% approve of the actions taken, while 54% disapprove.

Slots Referendum

On November’s general election ballot there will be a referendum on whether or not the state should allow slot machines in Maryland.

Ten months out, 54% of voters say they would vote to allow slots, while 38% say they will vote against bringing slot machines into the state, and 8% are undecided.

There is a huge gender gap on the issue – 60% of men favor slots and 31% are against them, while among women, 48% say they’ll vote for slots and 45% say they’ll vote against slots.

Typically on these types of ballot questions support at the beginning is at or is approaching its peak, while opposition tends to grow throughout the campaign; and slots referenda in other states in recent years suggest that this will be hard fought on both sides.

For example, a gaming initiative in 2003 to allow slots at racetracks in Colorado went down 79%-21%, one in Nebraska in 2004 to allow casino gaming went down 65%-35%, and a 2006 ballot question in Ohio, allowing up to 31,500 slot machines was defeated 57%-43%.

In 2004, Florida authorized voters in two counties, Dade and Broward, to approve slot machines at tracks, but it passed barely with 51%.

Death Penalty

In Maryland, support for life in prison without the possibility of parole is growing as an alternative to the death penalty.

Statewide, 42% think the death penalty is the appropriate sentence for someone convicted of first degree murder (the same as felt this way last March), while 48% think the more appropriate sentence for someone convicted of first degree murder is life in prison without the possibility of parole (up 2 points from March).

By party, 32% of Democrats think the death penalty is the appropriate sentence and 58% think life with no parole is the appropriate sentence; 64% of Republicans think the death penalty is the appropriate sentence and 30% think life with no parole is the appropriate sentence; and among independents, 35% think the death penalty is the appropriate sentence and 47% think life with no parole is the appropriate sentence.

This issue also breaks sharply by gender and race.

President Bush Job Approval

With both parties’ nominating contests swinging into high gear, President George Bush’s job approval rating in Maryland remains stagnant.

Statewide, 28% of state voters approve of the job he’s doing as president, marginally better than a year ago, while 64% disapprove of his performance in office.

Bush Job Rating	Approve	Disapprove	No answer
January 2008	28%	64%	8%
January 2007	25%	68%	7%
August 2006	36%	59%	5%
April 2006	29%	67%	4%
October 2005	33%	63%	4%
October 2004	44%	53%	3%
August 2004	43%	51%	6%
June 2004	39%	54%	7%
March 2004	45%	47%	8%
February 2004	41%	53%	6%
December 2003	47%	46%	7%
August 2003	43%	48%	9%
April 2003	62%	31%	7%
September 2002	63%	28%	9%
January 2002	74%	16%	10%
May 2001	48%	34%	18%
February 2001	47%	34%	19%

February 12^th Presidential Primaries

In Maryland, the 3 remaining Democratic candidates for the presidential nomination are very popular. Sixty-six percent of Democrats have a favorable opinion of Barack Obama, 65% have a favorable opinion of Hillary Clinton, and 63% have a favorable opinion of John Edwards.

In an election match-up, 36% said they would vote for Obama, 33% said they’d vote for Clinton, 17% picked Edwards, and 14% were undecided.

Obama enjoys strong support in the black community, where he leads Clinton, 63% to 22%.

Obama Clinton Edwards Undecided

Statewide 36% 33% 17% 14%

Men 40% 28% 19% 13%

Women 33% 37% 15% 15%

White 21% 39% 24% 16%

African-American 63% 22% 4% 11%

On the Republican side, Arizona Senator John McCain is the most popular one month out, with a 57% favorable rating, followed by Rudy Giuliani (48%), Mike Huckabee (47%), Mitt Romney (46%), Fred Thompson (44%), and Ron Paul (30%).

In an election match-up, 23% support McCain, 15% are for Huckabee and Giuliani each, 13% support Romney, 12% support Thompson, 9% back Paul, and 13% were undecided.

McCain Huckabee Giuliani Romney Thompson Paul Undecided

Statewide 23% 15% 15% 13% 12% 9% 13%

Men 19% 10% 18% 17% 17% 12% 7%

Women 27% 20% 12% 9% 7% 6% 19%

QUESTION: What do you think is the most important issue facing the state of Maryland today?

Taxes 29%

Health care 13%

Education 13%

Economy/jobs 10%

Crime 6%

Illegal immigration 5%

Environment and pollution 5%

Growth and development 5%

Terrorism/Iraq war 4%

State budget 3%

Transportation/Roads 2%

Affordable housing 1%

No answer 4%

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Approve	39%
Disapprove	49%
No answer	12%

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor?

Party	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
Democrat	52%	36%	12%
Republican	14%	78%	8%
Independent	41%	39%	20%

Gender – Approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor?

Gender	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
Men	36%	51%	13%
Women	42%	47%	11%

Race – Approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as governor?

Race	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
White	34%	55%	11%
African- American	53%	31%	16%

QUESTION: Overall, do you think things in Maryland are moving in the right direction or do you think things are moving in the wrong direction?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Right direction	41%
Wrong direction	50%
No Answer	9%

Party – Right direction or Wrong direction?

Party	Right Direction	Wrong Direction	No Answer
Democrat	58%	35%	7%
Republican	13%	76%	11%
Independent	32%	53%	15%

Gender – Right direction or Wrong direction?

Gender	Right Direction	Wrong Direction	No Answer
Men	40%	52%	8%
Women	42%	48%	10%

Race – Right direction or Wrong direction?

Race	Right Direction	Wrong Direction	No Answer
White	34%	57%	9%
African- American	62%	29%	9%

QUESTION: With regard to the overall actions taken on the state budget by the Maryland General Assembly during the special session in November, would you say you strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, strongly disapprove, or would you say you don’t really know enough to have an opinion?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Strongly approve	3%
Somewhat approve	24%
Somewhat disapprove	18%
Strongly disapprove	30%
Don’t know enough	24%
No answer	1%

Party – Actions taken by General Assembly during Special Session?

Party	Strongly Approve	Somewhat Approve	Somewhat Disapprove	Strongly Disapprove	No Opinion	No Answer
Democrat	5%	35%	16%	17%	26%	1%
Republican	1%	7%	23%	49%	19%	1%
Independent	1%	17%	15%	39%	27%	1%

Gender - Actions taken by General Assembly during Special Session?

Gender	Strongly Approve	Somewhat Approve	Somewhat Disapprove	Strongly Disapprove	No Opinion	No Answer
Men	3%	25%	14%	37%	20%	1%
Women	3%	23%	22%	23%	28%	1%

Race - Actions taken by General Assembly during Special Session?

Race	Strongly Approve	Somewhat Approve	Somewhat Disapprove	Strongly Disapprove	No Opinion	No Answer
White	3%	21%	20%	37%	18%	1%
African-American	4%	33%	12%	9%	42%	-

Region – Actions taken by General Assembly during Special Session?

Region	Strongly Approve	Somewhat Approve	Somewhat Disapprove	Strongly Disapprove	No Opinion	No Answer
Eastern Sh/ Southern Md	2%	18%	24%	38%	17%	1%
Baltimore City	4%	45%	15%	21%	15%	-
Baltimore Suburbs	3%	17%	21%	33%	25%	1%
Washington Suburbs	4%	31%	14%	24%	26%	1%
Western Maryland	-	15%	17%	37%	30%	1%

QUESTION: On this November’s general election ballot there will be a referendum on whether or not the state should allow slot machines in Maryland. If the election were held today, would you vote for allowing slot machines in Maryland, or would you vote against allowing slot machines in Maryland?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Vote for slots	54%
Vote against slots	38%
Undecided	8%

Party – November slots referendum?

Party	Vote For slots	Vote Against slots	Undecided
Democrat	55%	36%	9%
Republican	54%	40%	6%
Independent	48%	43%	9%

Gender – November slots referendum?

Gender	Vote For slots	Vote Against slots	Undecided
Men	60%	31%	9%
Women	48%	45%	7%

Race – November slots referendum?

Race	Vote For slots	Vote Against slots	Undecided
White	55%	38%	7%
African- American	50%	38%	12%

QUESTION: What do you think is the more appropriate sentence for someone convicted of first degree murder: the death penalty or life in prison without the possibility of parole?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Death penalty	42%
Life, no parole	48%
No answer	10%

Party - More appropriate sentence for first degree murder?

Party	Death Penalty	Life No parole	No Answer
Democrat	32%	58%	10%
Republican	64%	30%	6%
Independent	35%	47%	18%

Gender – More appropriate sentence for first degree murder?

Gender	Death Penalty	Life No parole	No Answer
Men	50%	42%	8%
Women	34%	54%	12%

Race – More appropriate sentence for first degree murder?

Race	Death Penalty	Life No parole	No Answer
White	49%	41%	10%
African- American	21%	69%	10%

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Approve	28%
Disapprove	64%
No Answer	8%

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

Party	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
Democrat	9%	85%	6%
Republican	63%	27%	10%
Independent	28%	60%	12%

Gender – Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

Gender	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
Men	31%	60%	9%
Women	25%	68%	7%

********** Democratic Voters in Maryland **********

Name Identification

I am going to read you the names of several individuals. After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person. If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

The first (next) name is _________________. Do you recognize that name?

(IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that person?

Don’t

Favorable Unfavorable Neutral Recognize

Barack Obama 66% 13% 21% -

Hillary Clinton 65% 18% 17% -

John Edwards 63% 14% 23% -

QUESTION: If next month’s February 12^th Democratic primary election for president were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, and John Edwards?

Obama Clinton Edwards Undecided

Statewide 36% 33% 17% 14%

Men 40% 28% 19% 13%

Women 33% 37% 15% 15%

White 21% 39% 24% 16%

African-American 63% 22% 4% 11%

********** Republican Voters in Maryland **********

Name Identification

I am going to read you the names of several individuals. After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person. If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

The first (next) name is _________________. Do you recognize that name?

(IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that person?

Don’t

Favorable Unfavorable Neutral Recognize

John McCain 57% 20% 22% 1%

Rudy Giuliani 48% 27% 22% 3%

Mike Huckabee 47% 25% 21% 7%

Mitt Romney 46% 23% 25% 6%

Fred Thompson 44% 21% 24% 11%

Ron Paul 30% 31% 29% 10%

QUESTION: If next month’s February 12^th Republican primary election for president were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson?

McCain Huckabee Giuliani Romney Thompson Paul Undecided

Statewide 23% 15% 15% 13% 12% 9% 13%

Men 19% 10% 18% 17% 17% 12% 7%

Women 27% 20% 12% 9% 7% 6% 19%