Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

 

“Maryland’s leader in public opinion polling”

 

 

 

 

 

Maryland Poll – Part 2

 

President George Bush Job Approval

War in Iraq

2008 Contenders

 

January 2007

 

Contact: Patrick Gonzales    410-974-4669

 

 

www.garesearch.com

Methodology

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science.  He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc. 

 

Since the mid 1980’s, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland.  Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

 

Laslo V. Boyd is president of Mellenbrook Policy Advisors, a consulting firm specializing in policy, planning, and communications strategies, and an associate partner of Gonzales Research.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

 

Together they have formed a firm called Gonzales/Boyd Political Consulting, specializing in offering research and strategy development for political candidates and those looking to shape public policy.  Visit their web site at www.gonzalesboyd.com

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from January 22nd through January 28th, 2007.  A total of 809 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

 

 

 

 

 

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         405   (50%)

 

White        619   (77%)

 

Eastern Shore/S Md  107      (13%)

Female      404   (50%)

Black        174   (22%)

Baltimore City             76        (9%)

 

Other/Ref   16 

Baltimore Suburbs     280      (35%)

 

 

Washington Subs      249      (31%)

 

 

Western Maryland      97      (12%)

Party Registration

 

 

Democrat         454   (56%)

 

 

Republican       251   (31%)

 

 

Independent     104   (13%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings are as follows:

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md

 

Baltimore City

Baltimore Suburbs

Washington Suburbs

Western Maryland

 

Calvert Co.

 

Baltimore City

 

Anne Arundel Co.

 

Montgomery Co.

 

Allegany Co.

Caroline Co.

 

Baltimore Co.

 Prince George’s Co.

Carroll Co.

Cecil Co.

 

Harford Co.

 

Frederick Co.

Charles Co.

 

Howard Co.

 

Garrett Co.

Dorchester Co.

 

 

 

Washington Co.

Kent Co.

 

 

 

 

Queen Anne’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Somerset Co.

 

 

 

 

St. Mary’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Talbot Co.

 

 

 

 

Wicomico Co.

 

 

 

 

Worcester Co.

 

 

 

 

 

Summary

 

President Bush Job Approval

 

President George W. Bush’s job approval rating in Maryland has plunged to its lowest level ever. 

 

Statewide, only 25% of state voters approve of the job he’s doing as president, while 68% disapprove of his performance in office, and 7% offered no opinion. 

 

 

Bush Job Rating

Approve

Disapprove

No answer

 

 

 

 

January 2007

25%

68%

7%

August 2006

36%

59%

5%

April 2006

29%

67%

4%

October 2005

33%

63%

4%

October 2004

44%

53%

3%

August 2004

43%

51%

6%

June 2004

39%

54%

7%

March 2004

45%

47%

8%

February 2004

41%

53%

6%

December 2003

47%

46%

7%

August 2003

43%

48%

9%

April 2003

62%

31%

7%

September 2002

63%

28%

9%

January 2002

74%

16%

10%

May 2001

48%

34%

18%

February 2001

47%

34%

19%

 

 

 

A mere one-in-ten registered Democrats approve of the President’s job performance, while barely one-in-five independents (21%) approve.  Among Republicans, 54% approve of the overall job he is doing, but 39% now say they disapprove, an indication that even his base is starting to slip away.

 

By gender, 29% of men approve of the job Bush is doing and 63% disapprove; and with women, 21% approve and 73% disapprove

 

 

War in Iraq

 

One need not look any further than Iraq to discover the reason for the President’s decline. 

 

Only 19% of Maryland voters today say they approve of George Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq, while 75% disapprove.

 

 

War in Iraq

Approve

Disapprove

 

 

 

January 2007

19%

75%

August 2006

32%

63%

April 2006

24%

71%

October 2005

25%

67%

June 2004

36%

58%

December 2003

40%

48%

 

 

A scant 8% of Maryland Democrats and 17% of independents approve of Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq.  With Republicans, 41% say they approve, but a 49% plurality now disapproves, another ominous signal for the President.  George Bush does not have to stand for election in the future, but his “disconnection” with voters on such a critical issue, if it continues, will make it extraordinarily difficult for him to govern the remaining 2 years of his term. 

 

Statewide, 28% say they favor Bush’s plan to increase the level of U.S. troops in Iraq by about 20,000, while 67% oppose it, and 5% gave no response.  Democrats (82%) and independents (67%) overwhelmingly object to this troop increase in Iraq.  Republicans say they are willing to give it a chance, with 58% favoring the President’s plan. 

 

The final question we asked Maryland voters was, “Do you think that all U.S. troops should be removed from Iraq by the end of this year, or not?”            

 

Statewide, a 52% majority say yes, all troops should be removed by the end of 2007, while 33% say they should not, and 15% were not sure.  This contrasts with attitudes in August of last year when 48% of Marylanders said “the United States should keep its military troops in Iraq as long as it takes to stabilize the situation there.”  The patience of Maryland voters vis a vis the situation in Iraq is wearing thin.

 

 

 

 

2008 Presidential Contenders

 

A year before the key nominating contests begin, junior New York Senator Hillary Clinton is the best known and most popular major candidate among Maryland voters.  Statewide, 44% have a favorable opinion of Clinton, while 33% have an unfavorable opinion of her, 22% are neutral, and only 1% does not recognize her.

 

Thirty-nine percent have a favorable opinion of former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, while 26% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 30% are neutral, and 5% do not recognize his name.

 

For Arizona Senator John McCain, who ran for president in 2000, 36% have a favorable opinion of him, 29% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 31% are neutral, and 4% do not recognize him.

 

Illinois Senator Barack Obama, elected in 2004, is viewed favorably by 35%, while only 12% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 39% are neutral, and 14% do not recognize his name.  Obama’s recognition among voters, given his short tenure in the Senate, bespeaks an impressive talent for garnering attention.

 

And 32% have a favorable opinion of 2004 vice-presidential candidate John Edwards, while 21% have an unfavorable opinion of him, 36% are neutral, and 11% do not recognize him.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Approve

25%

Disapprove

68%

No Answer

7%

 

 

 

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

 

 

Party

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

Democrat

10%

83%

7%

Republican

54%

39%

7%

Independent

21%

71%

8%

 

 

Gender – Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

 

 

Gender

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

Men

29%

63%

8%

Women

21%

73%

6%

 

 

Race – Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

 

 

Race

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

White

31%

61%

8%

African- American

 

6%

 

91%

 

3%

 

 

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of President George Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Approve

19%

Disapprove

75%

No answer

6%

 

 

 

Party – Approve or disapprove President George Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq?

 

 

Party

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

Democrat

        8%

88%

4%

Republican

41%

49%

10%

Independent

17%

82%

1%

 

 

 

Gender – Approve or disapprove President George Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq?

 

 

Gender

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

No

Answer

 

 

 

 

Men

22%

73%

5%

Women

16%

77%

7%

QUESTION: Do you favor or oppose George Bush's plan to increase the level of U.S. troops in Iraq by about 20,000?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Favor

28%

Oppose

67%

Not sure

5%

 

Party – Favor or oppose George Bush's plan to increase the level of U.S. troops in Iraq by about 20,000?

 

 

Party

 

Favor

 

Oppose

Not

Sure

 

 

 

 

Democrat

       12%

82%

6%

Republican

58%

39%

3%

Independent

26%

67%

7%

 

 

 

QUESTION: Do you think that all U.S. troops should be removed from Iraq by the end of this year, or not?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Yes

52%

No

33%

Not sure

15%

 

Party – All U.S. troops should be removed from Iraq by the end of this year?

 

 

Party

 

Yes

 

No

Not

Sure

 

 

 

 

Democrat

       67%

16%

17%

Republican

32%

57%

11%

Independent

37%

49%

14%

 

2008 PRESIDENTIAL CONTENDERS

 

 

I am going to read you the names of several individuals.  After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person.  If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

 

The first (next) name is _________________.  Do you recognize that name?

 

(IF YES)  Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that person?

 

                                                                                                                  Don’t

                Favorable        Unfavorable        Neutral          Recognize

 

Hillary Clinton                    44%                 33%                 22%               1%        

 

Rudy Giuliani                     39%                 26%                 30%               5%        

 

John McCain                      36%                 29%                 31%               4%        

 

Barack Obama                   35%                 12%                 39%              14%       

 

John Edwards                     32%                 21%                 36%              11%