Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

“Maryland’s leader in public opinion polling”

Maryland Poll – Part 1

Most Important Issue

Governor O’Malley Name ID

Slots

Emissions Standards

Smoking Ban

January 2007

Contact: Patrick Gonzales 410-974-4669

www.garesearch.com

Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science. He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc.

Since the mid 1980’s, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland. Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

Laslo V. Boyd is president of Mellenbrook Policy Advisors, a consulting firm specializing in policy, planning, and communications strategies, and an associate partner of Gonzales Research.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

Together they have formed a firm called Gonzales/Boyd Political Consulting, specializing in offering research and strategy development for political candidates and those looking to shape public policy. Visit their web site at www.gonzalesboyd.com

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from January 22^nd through January 28^th, 2007. A total of 809 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

Gender	Race	Region
Male 405 (50%)	White 619 (77%)	Eastern Shore/S Md 107 (13%)
Female 404 (50%)	Black 174 (22%)	Baltimore City 76 (9%)
	Other/Ref 16	Baltimore Suburbs 280 (36%)
		Washington Subs 249 (31%)
		Western Maryland 97 (12%)
Party Registration
Democrat 454 (56%)
Republican 251 (31%)
Independent 104 (13%)

Regional Groupings are as follows:

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md	Baltimore City	Baltimore Suburbs	Washington Suburbs	Western Maryland
Calvert Co.	Baltimore City	Anne Arundel Co.	Montgomery Co.	Allegany Co.
Caroline Co.		Baltimore Co.	Prince George’s Co.	Carroll Co.
Cecil Co.		Harford Co.		Frederick Co.
Charles Co.		Howard Co.		Garrett Co.
Dorchester Co.				Washington Co.
Kent Co.
Queen Anne’s Co.
Somerset Co.
St. Mary’s Co.
Talbot Co.
Wicomico Co.
Worcester Co.

Summary

Most Important Issue in Maryland and Governor Martin O’Malley

The top issues for Maryland voters as this year’s legislative session kicks into gear are health care, at 20%, and education, at 18%, followed by crime (13%), taxes (11%), the economy (6%), and the environment (5%). Other issues received mention from less than five percent.

Newly elected Governor Martin O’Malley begins his term in office with a decent standing among Maryland voters: 50% say they have a favorable opinion of O’Malley, 23% have an unfavorable opinion, 24% are neutral, and 3% don’t recognize him yet. With the contentious election over, and having the leaders in the General Assembly belonging to the same party, O’Malley is well situated to build on his position with voters as his tenure evolves.

Direction of State

Another advantage the Governor enjoys at this point is that a majority of voters think that things are going well in the state; with 61% saying things in Maryland are moving in the right direction, and only 25% feeling things are moving in the wrong direction.

Republicans, at 35%, are significantly more likely than Democrats or independents to think that things are moving in the wrong direction in Maryland, but even among this group a plurality of 48% say they are satisfied with where the state’s heading.

Slots

Bringing slots into Maryland remains controversial among voters, but slightly less so than a year ago. Statewide, 53% say they favor allowing slots at Maryland racetracks, while 41% are opposed, and 6% offered no opinion.

Slots	Favor	Oppose	No answer
January 2007	53%	41%	6%
January 2006	49%	44%	7%
January 2005	49%	45%	6%
August 2004	55%	38%	7%
March 2004	54%	35%	11%
October 2003	56%	34%	10%
August 2003	57%	31%	12%
March 2003	47%	45%	8%
January 2003	46%	40%	14%
August 2002	46%	37%	17%

Fifty-nine percent of men favor allowing slots at racetracks, compared to only 47% of women. Fifty-five percent of whites say they support slots, contrasted with 46% of black voters. A 52% majority of Washington suburbs voters oppose slots.

By party, 49% of Democrats favor slots and 44% are opposed; 60% of Republicans favor slots and 38%% are opposed; and among independents, 54% favor slots and 37% are opposed.

The party dynamic toward allowing slots has shifted over the past year, with Governor Bob Ehrlich, a strong supporter, no longer in office.

Favor Oppose

Democrats (2007) 49% 44%

Democrats (2006) 38% 54%

Republicans (2007) 60% 38%

Republicans (2006) 69% 26%

Independents (2007) 54% 37%

Independents (2006) 46% 48%

Emissions Standards for New cars

Maryland voters were read the following: “Would you favor or oppose legislation that requires tougher emissions standards for all new cars sold in Maryland?”

Statewide, a substantial majority of 74% say they favor legislation for tougher emissions standards, while 14% are opposed, and 12% gave no opinion.

Seventy-nine percent of Democrats, 69% of independents, and 67% of Republicans say they would favor such legislation.

It is expected that this issue will provoke significant debate and discussion, and as with any important matter, “the devil’s in the details,” but the initiative starts out with a strong footing among Maryland voters.

Smoking Ban

Statewide, 70% of voters favor a ban on smoking in all bars and restaurants, while 24% are opposed to a ban, with 6% offering no opinion.

Again, support spans party lines, with 76% of Democrats, 64% of independents, and 61% of Republicans saying they would favor a smoking ban.

$400 million School Construction

Governor O’Malley’s initiative to include $400 million in this year’s state budget is extremely popular with Maryland voters.

Statewide, 81% favor this money for school construction, only 8% oppose it, while 11% gave no answer. Broad support crosses party, gender, and racial lines.

MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE

QUESTION: What do you feel is the most important issue facing the State of Maryland today?

Health care costs/access 20%

Education 18%

Crime/illegal drugs 13%

Taxes 11%

Economy/jobs 6%

Environment 5%

Traffic/transportation/roads 4%

Utility hikes 4%

Threat of terrorism/security 3%

Budget deficit 2%

Affordable housing 2%

Growth/development 2%

Abortion/moral issues 2%

Slots/gambling 2%

Illegal immigration 1%

No answer 5%

NAME RECOGNITION

I am going to read you the names of several individuals. After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person. If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

The first (next) name is _________________. Do you recognize that name?

(IF YES) Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that person?

Don’t

Favorable Unfavorable Neutral Recognize

Martin O’Malley 50% 23% 24% 3%

QUESTION: Generally, do you think things in Maryland are moving in the right direction, or moving in the wrong direction?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Right direction	61%
Wrong direction	25%
No answer	14%

Party - Maryland moving in the right direction or wrong direction?

Party	Right Direction	Wrong Direction	No Answer
Democrat	67%	20%	13%
Republican	48%	35%	17%
Independent	65%	23%	12%

Gender – Maryland moving in the right direction or wrong direction?

Gender	Right Direction	Wrong Direction	No Answer
Men	59%	26%	15%
Women	63%	24%	13%

Race – Maryland moving in the right direction or wrong direction?

Race	Right Direction	Wrong Direction	No Answer
White	60%	26%	14%
African- American	63%	22%	15%

QUESTION: Do you favor or oppose allowing slot machines at Maryland racetracks?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Favor	53%
Oppose	41%
Not Sure	6%

Party - Favor or oppose slot machines?

Party	Favor	Oppose	Not Sure
Democrat	49%	44%	7%
Republican	60%	38%	2%
Independent	54%	37%	9%

Gender – Favor or oppose slot machines?

Gender	Favor	Oppose	Not Sure
Men	59%	36%	5%
Women	47%	46%	7%

Race – Favor or oppose slot machines?

Race	Favor	Oppose	Not Sure
White	55%	40%	5%
African- American	46%	45%	9%

Region - Favor or oppose slot machines?

Region	Favor	Oppose	Not Sure
Eastern Shore/ Southern MD	59%	34%	7%
Baltimore City	46%	46%	8%
Baltimore Suburbs	62%	31%	7%
Washington Suburbs	42%	52%	6%
Western Maryland	54%	42%	4%

QUESTION: Would you favor or oppose legislation that requires tougher emissions standards for all new cars sold in Maryland?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Favor	74%
Oppose	14%
Not Sure	12%

Party - Favor or oppose tougher emissions standards?

Party	Favor	Oppose	Not Sure
Democrat	79%	9%	12%
Republican	67%	18%	15%
Independent	69%	25%	6%

QUESTION: Would you favor or oppose legislation that would ban smoking in all restaurants and bars in Maryland?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Favor	70%
Oppose	24%
Not Sure	6%

Party - Favor or oppose smoking ban?

Party	Favor	Oppose	Not Sure
Democrat	76%	21%	3%
Republican	61%	28%	11%
Independent	64%	29%	7%

QUESTION: Do you favor or oppose the proposal to include $400 million in this year’s state budget for school construction?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Favor	81%
Oppose	8%
Not Sure	11%

Party - Favor or oppose $400 million for school construction?

Party	Favor	Oppose	Not Sure
Democrat	83%	5%	12%
Republican	76%	15%	9%
Independent	85%	4%	11%

Gender – Favor or oppose $400 million for school construction?

Gender	Favor	Oppose	Not Sure
Men	78%	12%	10%
Women	84%	4%	12%

Race – Favor or oppose $400 million for school construction?

Race	Favor	Oppose	Not Sure
White	79%	9%	12%
African- American	88%	3%	9%