Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

“Maryland’s leader in public opinion polling”

Maryland Poll – Part 1

Most Important Issue

Job Performance Ratings

Slots

Special Session

January 2005

Contact: Patrick Gonzales 410-974-4669

www.garesearch.com

Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science. He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc.

Since the mid 1980’s, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland. Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

Laslo V. Boyd is president of Mellenbrook Policy Advisors, a consulting firm specializing in policy, planning, and communications strategies, and an associate partner of Gonzales Research.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

Together they have formed a firm called Gonzales/Boyd Political Consulting, specializing in offering research and strategy development for political candidates and those looking to shape public policy. Visit their web site at www.gonzalesboyd.com

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from January 3^rd through January 8^th, 2005. A total of 804 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

Gender	Race	Region
Male 400 (50%)	White 616 (77%)	Eastern Shore/S Md 106 (13%)
Female 404 (50%)	Black 177 (22%)	Baltimore City 76 (9%)
	Other/Ref 11	Baltimore Suburbs 287 (36%)
		Washington Suburbs 241 (30%)
		Western Maryland 94 (12%)
Party Registration
Democrat 449 (56%)
Republican 265 (33%)
Independent 90 (11%)

Regional Groupings are as follows:

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md	Baltimore City	Baltimore Suburbs	Washington Suburbs	Western Maryland
Calvert Co.	Baltimore City	Anne Arundel Co.	Montgomery Co.	Allegany Co.
Caroline Co.		Baltimore Co.	Prince George’s Co.	Carroll Co.
Cecil Co.		Harford Co.		Frederick Co.
Charles Co.		Howard Co.		Garrett Co.
Dorchester Co.				Washington Co.
Kent Co.
Queen Anne’s Co.
Somerset Co.
St. Mary’s Co.
Talbot Co.
Wicomico Co.
Worcester Co.

Summary

Most Important Issue in Maryland

Concern over health care access and costs has risen dramatically over the past year to become the most important issue for Maryland voters today.

Statewide, 31% say that it is the most important issue facing state government today, while 14% say it’s education, 13% say it’s the budget deficit, and 11% say it’s the economy and jobs. Other issues received single-digit mention.

The medical malpractice insurance crisis and the recent special session to deal with it have helped increase voter anxiety toward this issue

Governor Ehrlich Job Approval

Overall, Governor Robert Ehrlich remains popular with Maryland voters, as 55% say they approve of the job he’s doing (up 3 points since this past June), while 37% disapprove of his performance in office (up 4 points), and 8% have no opinion.

Ehrlich Job Rating	Approve	Disapprove	No answer
January 2005	55%	37%	8%
June 2004	52%	33%	15%
December 2003	55%	27%	18%
August 2003	57%	30%	13%
March 2003	56%	29%	15%

The Governor remains extremely popular with his GOP base (89% approval), captures approval from 36% of Democrats in the state and 48% of independents. Fifty-three percent of Democrats say they disapprove of the job he’s doing as governor.

Regional differences in attitude toward Governor Ehrlich are stark:

Attorney General and Comptroller Job Approval

Attorney General Joe Curran and Comptroller William Donald Schaefer are extremely popular with Maryland voters, as their approval transcends party affiliation.

Sixty-four percent approve of the job Curran is doing (69% among Democrats, 60% among Republicans and 50% among independents), while only 9% disapprove, with 27% offering no opinion.

Statewide, 60% approve of the job Schaefer is doing (57% among Democrats, 64% among Republicans and 62% among independents), while 23% disapprove, and 17% have no opinion.

Slots in Maryland

Support for allowing slots in Maryland has slipped under 50% for the first time in nearly two years. Statewide, 49% of Free State voters today favor allowing slot machines in the state (down six points from August), while 45% are opposed to having slots (up seven points), and 6% gave no opinion.

Slots	Favor	Oppose	No answer
January 2005	49%	45%	6%
August 2004	55%	38%	7%
March 2004	54%	35%	11%
October 2003	56%	34%	10%
August 2003	57%	31%	12%
March 2003	47%	45%	8%
January 2003	46%	40%	14%
August 2002	46%	37%	17%

The primary cause for the overall slippage of slots is the drop in support among registered Democrats in the state. Today, only 39% say they favor allowing slots in Maryland, while 56% are opposed.

The Washington suburbs remain the staunchest anti-slots region in the state, where 35% say they’re in favor and 59% are against.

Health Care and Medical Malpractice Insurance Special Session

We asked Maryland voters the following: “How concerned are you with the ability of you and your family to have access to and pay for quality health care in Maryland: very concerned, somewhat concerned, not that concerned, or not at all concerned?”

Statewide, 68% are “very concerned,” 16% are “somewhat concerned,” 9% are “not that concerned,” and 7% are “not at all concerned.” These results are further evidence of the primacy of the health care issue in Maryland.

We next asked voters this: “The Maryland General Assembly passed a bill during its recent special session to try to prevent dramatic increases in medical malpractice premiums paid by doctors.  The Governor vetoed the bill because it contained a tax on HMOs as the way to pay for state subsidies for medical malpractice insurance. Do you approve or disapprove of the Governor's veto of the medical malpractice legislation?”

Forty-six percent say they approve of the Governor’s veto, while 47% disapprove, and 7% gave no answer. Responses broke sharply along party lines, with 68% of Republicans approving of the Governor’s veto and 64% of Democrats disapproving.

These results demonstrate clearly the complexity of the health care crisis and the insinuation of politics into the mix in Maryland, where more than 4-out-of-5 are in agreement with their concern and opinion on a solution is severely divided.

Tuition Increase Cap

Sixty-five percent of Marylanders say they favor the legislation passed last year to limit tuition increases at Maryland’s public colleges and universities and provide additional funding for higher education, while 30% are opposed. Attitudes on this are nowhere near as partisan, with substantial support among voters from each party.

QUESTION: What do you feel is the most important issue facing the Governor and Maryland Legislature today?

Health care costs, access/MedMal 31%

Education 14%

State budget deficit 13%

Economy/jobs 11%

Taxes 9%

Crime/illegal drugs 6%

Environment 4%

Slots /gambling 3%

Threat of terrorism/security 2%

Traffic/transportation/roads 2%

Growth/development 1%

Abortion/moral issues 1%

No answer 3%

Most important issue by Party