Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

 

“Maryland’s leader in public opinion polling”

 

 

 

 

Maryland Poll

 

Gubernatorial Contest

President Bush and Iraq

U.S. Senate Contest

 

 

August 2006

 

Contact: Patrick Gonzales    410-974-4669

 

 

www.garesearch.com

 

Methodology

 

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science.  He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc. 

 

Since the mid 1980’s, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland.  Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from August 18th through August 25th, 2006.  A total of 843 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

 

 This survey also includes a sample of 621 likely 2006 Democratic primary voters.  The margin for error on this sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

 

 

 

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         421   (50%)

 

White        632   (75%)

 

Eastern Shore/S Md  105      (12%)

Female      422   (50%)

Black        190   (23%)

Baltimore City             82      (10%)

 

Other/Ref   21 

Baltimore Suburbs     305      (36%)

 

 

Washington Subs      249      (30%)

 

 

Western Maryland    102      (12%)

Party Registration

 

 

Democrat         469   (56%)

 

 

Republican       273   (32%)

 

 

Independent     101   (12%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings are as follows:

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md

 

Baltimore City

Baltimore Suburbs

Washington Suburbs

Western Maryland

 

Calvert Co.

 

Baltimore City

 

Anne Arundel Co.

 

Montgomery Co.

 

Allegany Co.

Caroline Co.

 

Baltimore Co.

 Prince George’s Co.

Carroll Co.

Cecil Co.

 

Harford Co.

 

Frederick Co.

Charles Co.

 

Howard Co.

 

Garrett Co.

Dorchester Co.

 

 

 

Washington Co.

Kent Co.

 

 

 

 

Queen Anne’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Somerset Co.

 

 

 

 

St. Mary’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Talbot Co.

 

 

 

 

Wicomico Co.

 

 

 

 

Worcester Co.

 

 

 

 

 

Democratic Primary Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male    265    (43%)

 

White        417   (67%)

 

Metro Baltimore    276     (44%)

Female 356   (57%)

Black        186   (30%)

Metro Washington 234     (38%)

 

Other/Ref   18 

Rest of State           111     (18%)

 

 

Metro Baltimore includes: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard Counties, and Baltimore City.

 

Metro Washington includes: Montgomery, and Prince George’s Counties.

 

Rest of State includes: Southern Maryland, Eastern Shore, and Western Maryland.

 

 

 

Summary

 

Most Important Issue in Maryland

 

With the primaries in two weeks and the general election set to move into high gear right after, education, at 23%, is the number one issue for voters in Maryland. 

 

Education was followed by health care (12%), utility/gas costs (11%), crime (8%), the economy (8%), taxes (7%), illegal immigration (6%), traffic (5%), security issues (4%), development (4%), and the environment and affordable housing, both at 3%. 

 

 

Governor Ehrlich Job Approval

 

Bob Ehrlich’s job approval rating with Maryland voters stands at 54% who say they approve of the job he is doing as governor, compared to 37% who disapprove, with 9% giving no response. 

 

 

Ehrlich Job Rating

Approve

Disapprove

No answer

 

 

 

 

August 2006

54%

37%

9%

April 2006

50%

38%

12%

January 2006

53%

36%

11%

October 2005

49%

42%

9%

January 2005

55%

37%

8%

June 2004

52%

33%

15%

December 2003

55%

27%

18%

August 2003

57%

30%

13%

March 2003

56%

29%

15%

 

 

 

Eighty-six percent of Republicans approve of the job Ehrlich’s doing, as do 56% of registered independents. 

 

Among Democrats, 35% approve of Ehrlich’s performance as governor, but 54% disapprove.

 

 

 

General Election Gubernatorial Match-up

 

Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley leads Ehrlich by four points as the fall campaign gets ready to kick off.  Statewide, O’Malley captures 46%, compared to 42% for the Governor, 1% for the Green Party ticket, with 11% undecided.

 

Eighty-three percent of Republicans say they’ll vote for Ehrlich, while 69% of Democrats support O’Malley.  Among independents, Ehrlich currently leads 45%-36%.

 

By gender, 52% of women back O’Malley, compared to 38% for Ehrlich; 46% of men support Ehrlich and 40% are for O’Malley.

 

Voters seem to like Ehrlich, but his ticket still needs, between now and November, to translate that charm into hard votes among two key blocs – Democrats and women.

 

 

President Bush Job Approval

 

George W. Bush’s job approval in Maryland has improved somewhat since the spring.  Statewide, 36% of voters say they approve of the job Bush is doing as president (up 7 points), while 59% disapprove of his performance in office. 

 

 

Bush Job Rating

Approve

Disapprove

No answer

 

 

 

 

August 2006

36%

59%

5%

April 2006

29%

67%

4%

October 2005

33%

63%

4%

October 2004

44%

53%

3%