Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

“Maryland’s leader in public opinion polling”

Maryland Poll

Gubernatorial Contest

President Bush and Iraq

U.S. Senate Contest

August 2006

Contact: Patrick Gonzales 410-974-4669

www.garesearch.com

Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science. He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc.

Since the mid 1980’s, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland. Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from August 18^th through August 25^th, 2006. A total of 843 registered voters in Maryland who vote regularly were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of interviews was conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

This survey also includes a sample of 621 likely 2006 Democratic primary voters. The margin for error on this sample is plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

Gender	Race	Region
Male 421 (50%)	White 632 (75%)	Eastern Shore/S Md 105 (12%)
Female 422 (50%)	Black 190 (23%)	Baltimore City 82 (10%)
	Other/Ref 21	Baltimore Suburbs 305 (36%)
		Washington Subs 249 (30%)
		Western Maryland 102 (12%)
Party Registration
Democrat 469 (56%)
Republican 273 (32%)
Independent 101 (12%)

Regional Groupings are as follows:

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md	Baltimore City	Baltimore Suburbs	Washington Suburbs	Western Maryland
Calvert Co.	Baltimore City	Anne Arundel Co.	Montgomery Co.	Allegany Co.
Caroline Co.		Baltimore Co.	Prince George’s Co.	Carroll Co.
Cecil Co.		Harford Co.		Frederick Co.
Charles Co.		Howard Co.		Garrett Co.
Dorchester Co.				Washington Co.
Kent Co.
Queen Anne’s Co.
Somerset Co.
St. Mary’s Co.
Talbot Co.
Wicomico Co.
Worcester Co.

Democratic Primary Sample Demographics

Gender	Race	Region
Male 265 (43%)	White 417 (67%)	Metro Baltimore 276 (44%)
Female 356 (57%)	Black 186 (30%)	Metro Washington 234 (38%)
	Other/Ref 18	Rest of State 111 (18%)

Metro Baltimore includes: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard Counties, and Baltimore City.

Metro Washington includes: Montgomery, and Prince George’s Counties.

Rest of State includes: Southern Maryland, Eastern Shore, and Western Maryland.

Summary

Most Important Issue in Maryland

With the primaries in two weeks and the general election set to move into high gear right after, education, at 23%, is the number one issue for voters in Maryland.

Education was followed by health care (12%), utility/gas costs (11%), crime (8%), the economy (8%), taxes (7%), illegal immigration (6%), traffic (5%), security issues (4%), development (4%), and the environment and affordable housing, both at 3%.

Governor Ehrlich Job Approval

Bob Ehrlich’s job approval rating with Maryland voters stands at 54% who say they approve of the job he is doing as governor, compared to 37% who disapprove, with 9% giving no response.

Ehrlich Job Rating	Approve	Disapprove	No answer
August 2006	54%	37%	9%
April 2006	50%	38%	12%
January 2006	53%	36%	11%
October 2005	49%	42%	9%
January 2005	55%	37%	8%
June 2004	52%	33%	15%
December 2003	55%	27%	18%
August 2003	57%	30%	13%
March 2003	56%	29%	15%

Eighty-six percent of Republicans approve of the job Ehrlich’s doing, as do 56% of registered independents.

Among Democrats, 35% approve of Ehrlich’s performance as governor, but 54% disapprove.

General Election Gubernatorial Match-up

Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley leads Ehrlich by four points as the fall campaign gets ready to kick off. Statewide, O’Malley captures 46%, compared to 42% for the Governor, 1% for the Green Party ticket, with 11% undecided.

Eighty-three percent of Republicans say they’ll vote for Ehrlich, while 69% of Democrats support O’Malley. Among independents, Ehrlich currently leads 45%-36%.

By gender, 52% of women back O’Malley, compared to 38% for Ehrlich; 46% of men support Ehrlich and 40% are for O’Malley.

Voters seem to like Ehrlich, but his ticket still needs, between now and November, to translate that charm into hard votes among two key blocs – Democrats and women.

President Bush Job Approval

George W. Bush’s job approval in Maryland has improved somewhat since the spring. Statewide, 36% of voters say they approve of the job Bush is doing as president (up 7 points), while 59% disapprove of his performance in office.

Bush Job Rating	Approve	Disapprove	No answer
August 2006	36%	59%	5%
April 2006	29%	67%	4%
October 2005	33%	63%	4%
October 2004	44%	53%	3%
August 2004	43%	51%	6%
June 2004	39%	54%	7%
March 2004	45%	47%	8%
February 2004	41%	53%	6%
December 2003	47%	46%	7%
August 2003	43%	48%	9%
April 2003	62%	31%	7%
September 2002	63%	28%	9%
January 2002	74%	16%	10%
May 2001	48%	34%	18%
February 2001	47%	34%	19%

By race, 45% of whites approve of the job Bush is doing and 50% disapprove; among African-American voters, only 7% approve and 89% disapprove

War in Iraq

Voter attitude toward Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq has also improved for him since April, but nearly 2-in-3 Maryland voters (63%) still disapprove.

War in Iraq	Approve	Disapprove
August 2006	32%	63%
April 2006	24%	71%
October 2005	25%	67%
June 2004	36%	58%
December 2003	40%	48%

Feelings about the war in Iraq continue to break sharply along party lines: 66% approve and 28% disapprove; only 14% of Democrats approve while 83% disapprove. Among independents, 25% approve and 64% disapprove.

Marylanders are split on a timetable for troop withdrawal from Iraq, with 44% saying that “the United States should bring its military troops home from Iraq as soon as possible,” and 48% saying “the United States should keep its military troops in Iraq as long as it takes to stabilize the situation there.”

Attitudes toward troop withdrawal among Democrats and Republicans reflect their opinion about the war generally – 62% of Democrats think the troops should be brought home as soon as possible and 79% of Republicans think the troops should be kept there as long as it takes.

With independents, though, 64% disapprove of Bush’s handling of the war, but 60% think that the troops should be kept there as long as it takes to stabilize the situation.

There is a huge gender divide among Maryland voters on this issue: 53% of women think the troops should be brought home as soon as possible, while 37% think the troops should be kept there as long as it takes; among men, 59% think the troops should be kept there as long as it takes and 35% think the troops should be brought home as soon as possible.

U.S. Senate Contest

Democratic Primary

Congressman Ben Cardin’s massive advertising blitz the past couple of weeks has given him a double-digit margin in the U.S. Senate Democratic primary.

Statewide, 43% say they’ll vote for Cardin, 30% support former Congressman and NAACP President Kweisi Mfume, 6% back Josh Rales, 3% back Allan Lichtman, 1% say they will vote for perennial candidate Robert Kaufman, 2% is spread over the remaining candidates, and 15% are undecided.

Among black Democratic primary voters, Mfume is capturing the support of 68%, compared to 19% for Cardin. Among whites, Cardin leads 54% to 14%.

By region, Mfume currently leads in metro Washington, 36%-30%, off strong support from the large bloc of African-American Democratic primary voters in Prince George’s County. Cardin is up by more than 20 points in metro Baltimore, and leads in the outlying areas of the state with 39%.

Money is the mother’s milk of politics…Cardin’s huge financial lead over Mfume is giving him an advantage as the campaign heads into the final two weeks.

General Election Match-ups

Lieutenant Governor Michael Steele is positioned to be competitive in a state that has not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate in 26 years.

In a general election match-up with Cardin, Steele trails 39% to 44%, with Green Party candidate Kevin Zeese at 1%, and 16% undecided.

In a match-up with Mfume, Steele leads 42% to 38%, with 1% for Zeese, and 19% undecided.

QUESTION: What do you feel is the most important issue facing the State of Maryland today?

Education 23%

Health care 12%

Utility/gas costs 11%

Crime/illegal drugs 8%

Economy/jobs 8%

Taxes 7%

Illegal immigration 6%

Traffic/transportation/roads 5%

Iraq War/ terrorism/security 4%

Growth/development 4%

Environment 3%

Affordable Housing 3%

Slots 1%

Abortion/moral issues 1%

Corruption 1%

No answer 3%

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bob Ehrlich is doing as governor?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Approve	54%
Disapprove	37%
No Answer	9%

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job Bob Ehrlich is doing as governor?

Party	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
Democrat	35%	54%	11%
Republican	86%	9%	5%
Independent	56%	34%	10%

Gender - Approve or disapprove of the job Bob Ehrlich is doing as governor?

Gender	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
Male	58%	34%	8%
Female	50%	40%	10%

Race - Approve or disapprove of the job Bob Ehrlich is doing as governor?

Race	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
White	61%	30%	9%
African- American	31%	59%	10%

QUESTION: If the 2006 general election for governor were held today, for whom would you vote?

The Democratic ticket of Martin O’Malley and Anthony Brown 46%

The Republican ticket of Bob Ehrlich and Kristen Cox 42%

The Green Party ticket of Ed Boyd and James Madigan 1%

The Populist Party ticket of Christopher Driscoll and Ed Rothstein *

Undecided 11%

* Less than 1 percent

Party – 2006 Gubernatorial Match-up?

Party	O’Malley/ Brown	Ehrlich/ Cox	Undecided
Democrat	69%	18%	11%
Republican	9%	83%	8%
Independent	36%	45%	18%

Gender - 2006 Gubernatorial Match-up?

Gender	O’Malley/ Brown	Ehrlich/ Cox	Undecided
Male	40%	46%	13%
Female	52%	38%	9%

Race - 2006 Gubernatorial Match-up?

Race	O’Malley/ Brown	Ehrlich/ Cox	Undecided
White	38%	52%	9%
African- American	71%	11%	18%

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Approve	36%
Disapprove	59%
No Answer	5%

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

Party	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
Democrat	15%	80%	5%
Republican	77%	19%	4%
Independent	27%	66%	7%

Gender – Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

Gender	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
Men	39%	54%	7%
Women	33%	64%	3%

Race – Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

Race	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
White	45%	50%	5%
African- American	7%	89%	4%

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of President George Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Approve	32%
Disapprove	63%
No answer	5%

Party – Approve or disapprove President George Bush’s handling of the war in Iraq?

Party	Approve	Disapprove	No answer
Democrat	14%	83%	3%
Republican	66%	28%	6%
Independent	25%	64%	11%

QUESTION: Which of the following more closely reflects your opinion? (ORDER ROTATED)

· The United States should bring its military troops home from Iraq as soon as possible, or

· The United States should keep its military troops in Iraq as long as it takes to stabilize the situation there

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Bring troops home	44%
Keep troops there	48%
No Answer	8%

Party - Bring military troops home from Iraq as soon as possible, or keep military troops in Iraq as long as it takes to stabilize the situation?

Party	Bring Home	Keep There	No Answer
Democrat	62%	28%	10%
Republican	17%	79%	4%
Independent	33%	60%	7%

Gender – Bring military troops home from Iraq as soon as possible, or keep military troops in Iraq as long as it takes to stabilize the situation?

Gender	Bring Home	Keep There	No Answer
Men	35%	59%	6%
Women	53%	37%	10%

QUESTION: If the 2006 general election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote?

· Ben Cardin, the Democrat 44%

· Michael Steele, the Republican 39%

· Kevin Zeese, the Green Party candidate 1%

· Undecided 16%

Party - 2006 U.S. Senate Match-up: Steele vs. Cardin?

Party	Cardin	Steele	Undecided
Democrat	66%	19%	14%
Republican	10%	75%	14%
Independent	34%	34%	31%

Race - 2006 U.S. Senate Match-up: Steele vs. Cardin?

Race	Cardin	Steele	Undecided
White	39%	44%	16%
African- American	60%	23%	17%

QUESTION: If the 2006 general election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote?

· Michael Steele, the Republican 42%

· Kweisi Mfume, the Democrat 38%

· Kevin Zeese, the Green Party candidate 1%

· Undecided 19%

Party - 2006 U.S. Senate Match-up: Steele vs. Mfume?

Party	Steele	Mfume	Undecided
Democrat	20%	61%	18%
Republican	82%	3%	14%
Independent	38%	24%	37%

Race - 2006 U.S. Senate Match-up: Steele vs. Mfume?

Race	Steele	Mfume	Undecided
White	53%	29%	17%
African- American	8%	67%	25%

********** 621 Likely 2006 Democratic Primary Voters **********

QUESTION: If the September 2006 Democratic Primary election for U.S Senate were held today, for whom would you vote?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Ben Cardin	43%
Kweisi Mfume	30%
Josh Rales	6%
Allan Lichtman	3%
A. Robert Kaufman	1%
Others	2%
Undecided	15%

Gender - 2006 Democratic Primary election for U.S Senate?

Gender	Cardin	Mfume	All Other Candidates	Undecided
Male	42%	27%	13%	18%
Female	44%	32%	11%	13%

Race - 2006 Democratic Primary election for U.S Senate?

Race	Cardin	Mfume	All Other Candidates	Undecided
White	54%	14%	15%	17%
African-American	19%	68%	4%	9%

Region - 2006 Democratic Primary election for U.S Senate?

Region	Cardin	Mfume	All Other Candidates	Undecided
Metro Baltimore	56%	30%	6%	8%
Metro Washington	30%	36%	18%	16%
Rest of State	39%	18%	14%	29%