Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, INC.
Contact: Carol Arscott 410-461-5744
Patrick Gonzales 410-974-4823
Methodology
This is the first of a series of periodic surveys of Maryland voters to be conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. of Annapolis, Maryland.
Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott, the former president and vice president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling & Strategy, Inc., formed Gonzales RM&S Research &Communications, Inc. earlier this year.
Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in the Anne Arundel County Democratic Party who served as a principal advisor to Janet Owens’ 1998 campaign for County Executive. Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party.
Gonzales and Arscott together have over 30 years of experience in politics. They have served as pollsters and consultants to dozens of political clients in Maryland since the mid-1980s, including County Executives Doug Duncan, Jim Harkins, Chuck Ecker, Eileen Rehrmann, and Robert Neall; and State Senators Tom Bromwell, Marty Madden, John Astle, Chris McCabe, and Jean Roesser.
This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from March 23rd through March 28th, 1999. A total of 806 registered voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. A cross-section of calls were made into each jurisdiction in the state to reflect general election voting patterns.
The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percent. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or race.
Sample Demographics
Men 399 (50%)
Women 407 (50%)
White 605 (75%)
African American 190 (24%)
Other/Refused 11
Democrats 468 (58%)
Republicans 258 (32%)
Independents 80 (10%)
Part 1 –
President Clinton and National Issues
Like Americans everywhere, Maryland voters voice approval of the job that Bill Clinton is doing as President by a margin of nearly two-to-one. What is apparent from this survey, however, is that the reason for their approval has nothing to do with their personal opinion of Clinton or his prowess in the arena of foreign policy. Maryland voters don’t like him much, are deeply divided on the bombing of Kosovo, and overwhelmingly believe that our national security has been threatened by the Los Alamos spy scandal. When the Clinton campaign adopted the motto, “The economy, stupid,” during the 1992 campaign, they had no idea how right they were. In the face of his slumping personal popularity ratings and discord on the world stage, the robust economy props up the President’s stratospheric job approval numbers.
Regarding the President, deep divisions among Marylanders are apparent between men and women, between Republicans and Democrats, and between whites and African-Americans. Statewide, 35% of survey respondents said they view Clinton favorably, and 46% unfavorably, with 18% holding a neutral opinion. Thirty percent of men hold a favorable view of the President, compared to 40% of the women. Fifty-three percent of Democrats have a positive opinion of Clinton, compared to 10% of Republicans, and just 17% of independents. Most dramatic, only 27% of white voters surveyed hold a favorable view of Clinton, compared to 62% of African-Americans. Divisions are less dramatic in the job approval question, where only Republicans buck the popular trend to disapprove of the President’s performance in office.
Maryland voters are profoundly divided on the bombing of Kosovo, split almost evenly on the issue, 44% approving of the action and 43% disapproving. Democrats back the Kosovo action, but even among the President’s partisans, approval falls just below 50%, and nearly a fifth of Democrats said they were undecided. Only among African-Americans do a majority of voters voice approval for the bombing campaign, though a plurality of men are on board. Independents record the most negative reaction, disapproving of the bombing by a two-to-one margin.
Seven out of ten Marylanders believe that the national security interests of the United States have been threatened by alleged spying at the Los Alamos Weapons Laboratory. Sixty-five percent of Democrats, and even 49% of Clinton’s most loyal supporters, African-Americans, believe that damage has been done.
NAME RECOGNITION: Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of Bill Clinton?
|
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Neutral |
Don’t Recognize |
|
Statewide |
35% |
47% |
18% |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
30% |
51% |
19% |
- |
|
Women |
40% |
43% |
17% |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrats |
53% |
32% |
15% |
- |
|
Republicans |
10% |
73% |
17% |
- |
|
Independents |
17% |
48% |
35% |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
27% |
56% |
17% |
- |
|
African
American |
62% |
18% |
20% |
- |
QUESTION: Do
you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Clinton is doing as president?
|
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
Undecided |
|
Statewide |
64% |
33% |
3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
61% |
38% |
1% |
|
Women |
67% |
28% |
5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrats |
78% |
18% |
4% |
|
Republicans |
39% |
59% |
2% |
|
Independents |
65% |
32% |
3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
57% |
39% |
4% |
|
African
American |
85% |
14% |
1% |
QUESTION: Earlier this week, United States forces, acting in conjunction with NATO, began a bombing campaign in Kosovo. Clinton and his supporters said that they fear that the conflict there would spread to other areas if we did not act. Opponents of U.S. involvement say that the mission is not well defined and that the United States has no direct interest there. Do you approve or disapprove of bombing in Kosovo?
|
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
Undecided |
|
Statewide |
44% |
43% |
13% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
47% |
41% |
12% |
|
Women |
41% |
45% |
14% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrats |
49% |
32% |
19% |
|
Republicans |
39% |
56% |
5% |
|
Independents |
31% |
62% |
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
38% |
46% |
16% |
|
African
American |
64% |
33% |
3% |
QUESTION: Earlier this month, a scientist at the Los Alamos Weapons Research Laboratory was fired under suspicion of spying for China. Based on what you know about this issue, do you believe that national security interests of the United States have been threatened, or not?
|
|
Yes |
No |
Not Sure |
|
Statewide |
71% |
8% |
21% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
77% |
4% |
19% |
|
Women |
65% |
12% |
23% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrats |
65% |
11% |
24% |
|
Republicans |
83% |
3% |
14% |
|
Independents |
67% |
6% |
27% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
78% |
9% |
13% |
|
African
American |
49% |
4% |
47% |
Part 2 –
Governor Glendening and Statewide Issues
As the 1999 session of the Maryland General Assembly winds down to a close in less than two weeks’ time, two major issues, both sources of controversy, are still hanging fire, gay rights and a $1.00 per pack increase in the cigarette tax. Another that seemed settled, the Marriott deal, received a burst of bad publicity over the weekend when the Baltimore Sun reported that documents obtained under Virginia’s Freedom of Information Act revealed that Marriott had decided to remain in Maryland a month before the pact was inked.
Judging by the survey results, the notion that gays and lesbians should have the same civil rights protections as other minorities is not nearly as controversial among the voters as it seems to be among legislators. Fully 69% of Maryland voters said that they approve of the Governor's proposed legislation while just 22% disapprove. Majorities in every demographic subgroup in the sample, including Republicans, said that they support the bill. Democrats posted a 79% level of support, and that figure was matched by support among African-Americans, whom some legislators seem to believe would be aggrieved by having the legal status of gays and lesbians equated with theirs.
The Marriott deal splits Marylanders nearly down the middle, with 41% approving of the package and 43% voicing disapproval. Men backed the deal while women disapproved. Republicans were more likely to support the pact than Democrats, while Independents recorded the most negative reaction, with just 24% supporting the deal. Whites and African-Americans supported the Marriott package in nearly equal numbers, but blacks were more likely to disapprove of the deal than whites.
A majority of Maryland voters statewide support a $1.00 per pack increase in the cigarette tax, though demographic differences appear in the survey’s subgroups. Men are evenly split on the tax increase, while women back it by a two-to-one margin. Democrats support it overwhelmingly while Republicans line up against the higher tax with nearly equal fervor. Independents and whites approve of the $1.00 per pack increase by margins similar to the overall survey result, white African-Americans narrowly disapprove of the tax hike.
Parris Glendening’s personal popularity rating with Maryland voters is reasonably good, with his favorable ranking exceeding his unfavorable ranking by a margin of more than two-to-one. Forty-eight of Marylanders expressed a favorable opinion, 23% an unfavorable view, and 29% hold a neutral assessment of the Governor.
Glendening posts particularly strong number with Democrats and African-Americans, but lags with Republicans and Independents, 49% of whom said they hold a neutral opinion of the Governor.
NAME RECOGNITION: Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of Parris Glendening?
|
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Neutral |
Don’t Recognize |
|
Statewide |
48% |
23% |
29% |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
45% |
27% |
28% |
- |
|
Women |
51% |
19% |
30% |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrats |
66% |
11% |
23% |
- |
|
Republicans |
22% |
46% |
32% |
- |
|
Independents |
33% |
18% |
49% |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
42% |
28% |
30% |
- |
|
African
American |
67% |
7% |
26% |
- |
QUESTION: Governor Glendening has proposed legislation that would give gays and lesbians the same civil rights protections as other minorities. Do you approve or disapprove of this proposed legislation?
|
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
Undecided |
|
Statewide |
69% |
22% |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
68% |
27% |
5% |
|
Women |
70% |
17% |
13% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrats |
79% |
10% |
11% |
|
Republicans |
53% |
41% |
6% |
|
Independents |
65% |
29% |
6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
66% |
24% |
10% |
|
African
American |
79% |
16% |
5% |
QUESTION: Earlier this month, Governor Glendening agreed to a package of tax credits and incentives worth between $40 and $70 million dollars in order to persuade the Marriott Corporation to retain its company headquarters in Montgomery County. The headquarters employs more than 3,000 people, and nearly 1,000 will be added in the next several years. Glendening and his supporters say that the tax credits were necessary to keep a major corporation from leaving Maryland for Virginia. Opponents say that the tax credits amount to corporate welfare. Do you approve or disapprove of the deal to keep Marriott in Maryland?
|
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
Undecided |
|
Statewide |
41% |
43% |
16% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
45% |
40% |
15% |
|
Women |
37% |
46% |
17% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrats |
39% |
44% |
17% |
|
Republicans |
50% |
39% |
11% |
|
Independents |
24% |
52% |
24% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
41% |
40% |
19% |
|
African
American |
42% |
51% |
7% |
QUESTION: Governor Glendening has proposed that the tax on cigarettes be increased by $1.00 per pack. His budget for Fiscal Year 2000 is balanced based on the assumption that this tax increase passes the legislature. The Governor and his supporters say that the increased price will reduce smoking, especially teen smoking, and that the revenue raised will fund needed programs. Opponents say that the tax is regressive, that it won’t curb teen smoking, and that the increased revenue only serves to make the government bigger. Do you approve or disapprove of a $1.00 increase in the cigarette tax?
|
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
Undecided |
|
Statewide |
55% |
40% |
5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
48% |
49% |
3% |
|
Women |
62% |
31% |
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrats |
72% |
24% |
4% |
|
Republicans |
26% |
69% |
5% |
|
Independents |
54% |
35% |
11% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
57% |
37% |
6% |
|
African
American |
47% |
50% |
3% |
Vice President Al Gore, Texas Governor George W. Bush, and former cabinet secretary Elizabeth Dole, today’s leading contenders for their parties’ presidential nominations, are already well known to all but a small fraction of Maryland’s voters. Bush registers the highest favorable rating at 49%, but Dole posts the best favorable-to-unfavorable ratio, 3.4-to-1. With a favorable rating of 41% and unfavorables at just 12%, Dole also records the highest neutral rating, at 43%. Gore can take some comfort in the fact that his numbers are somewhat better than the President’s, but his personal popularity numbers are still rather dismal, nonetheless. His favorables barely exceed his unfavorables with Maryland voters, 36% to 32%.
The 800-pound gorilla in the 2000 Presidential election could be the phenomenon that is Jesse Ventura, the newly-elected Governor of Minnesota. Ventura has alternately basked in the media glow and roasted in the media spotlight since his upset victory in November, but there is no denying his appeal to a significant segment of the electorate. It’s hard to believe that any other state’s governor, let alone one who was just elected last November, would be known to 91% of Maryland voters. And his unfavorable rating, while a trifle high, is lower than Al Gore’s.
Maryland gave Bill Clinton his second biggest percentage victory in 1992, second only to Arkansas. So, despite Gore’s weaknesses, his Democratic party affiliation puts him four points ahead in a direct match-up with George W. Bush, 47% to 43%, with 10% undecided. Bush wins with men and with white voters, and gets 79% of the Republican vote. Bush’s father beat Michael Dukakis in Maryland by 40,000 votes in 1988, the last time a Republican won a statewide election in Maryland; these numbers indicate that Governor Bush has, at this early stage, the potential to follow in his father’s footsteps here. The State of Maryland is an essential element in any Democratic presidential candidate’s winning formula. If Maryland is in play, one would have to consider the Democrat’s candidacy to be in trouble.
Gore does better in a head-to-head contest with Elizabeth Dole, beating her 51% to 38% with 11% undecided. Gore gains with men and with Republican voters against Dole, who wins with whites and Republicans, but she slips in every category relative to Bush.
When Jesse Ventura is added to the Gore-Bush mix as a Reform Party candidate, it’s déjà vu all over again. As Ross Perot’s candidacy in 1996 did more damage to Bob Dole than to Bill Clinton, Ventura does more damage to Republican Bush than to Democrat Gore. Nearly a quarter of the independent vote goes to Ventura, bleeding 18 points off Bush’s share in a head-to-head with Gore. Perhaps more significantly, Bush’s share of the Republican vote drops from 79% to 64% with Ventura in the contest. Today, in the early spring of 1999, Ventura is a potential thorn in the Republicans’ side. By November 2000, he could be a dagger in their heart.
Statewide Name
Recognition
I am going to read you the names of several individuals. After I mention each name, I would like you
to tell me if you recognize that person.
If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a
favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.
The first (next) name is _________________. Do you recognize that name?
(IF YES) Do you have a
favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that person?
|
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Neutral |
Don’t Recognize |
|
George W.
Bush |
49% |
17% |
32% |
2% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Elizabeth
Dole |
41% |
12% |
43% |
4% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Al Gore |
36% |
32% |
31% |
1% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Jesse
Ventura |
33% |
24% |
34% |
9% |
QUESTION: If
the year 2000 election for president were held today, and the candidates were
Al Gore, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican, for whom would you
vote?
|
|
Gore |
Bush |
Undecided |
|
Statewide |
47% |
43% |
10% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
40% |
47% |
13% |
|
Women |
54% |
39% |
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrats |
68% |
23% |
9% |
|
Republicans |
9% |
79% |
12% |
|
Independents |
53% |
39% |
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
38% |
55% |
7% |
|
African
American |
76% |
6% |
18% |
QUESTION: If
the year 2000 election for president were held today, and the candidates were
Al Gore, the Democrat, and Elizabeth Dole, the Republican, for whom would you
vote?
|
|
Gore |
Dole |
Undecided |
|
Statewide |
51% |
38% |
11% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
48% |
40% |
12% |
|
Women |
54% |
36% |
10% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrats |
70% |
19% |
11% |
|
Republicans |
18% |
71% |
11% |
|
Independents |
52% |
38% |
10% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
43% |
49% |
8% |
|
African
American |
75% |
4% |
21% |
QUESTION: If the year 2000 election for president were held today, and the candidate were Al Gore, the Democrat, George W. Bush, the Republican, and Jesse Ventura, the Reform Party candidate, for whom would you vote?
|
|
Gore |
Bush |
Ventura |
Undecided |
|
Statewide |
45% |
36% |
10% |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
40% |
40% |
11% |
9% |
|
Women |
50% |
32% |
9% |
9% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrats |
66% |
22% |
5% |
7% |
|
Republicans |
8% |
64% |
15% |
13% |
|
Independents |
48% |
21% |
23% |
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
36% |
46% |
13% |
5% |
|
African
American |
72% |
6% |
1% |
21% |
Part 4 – 2000 U.S. Senate Election
The last time a Republican won a statewide election in Maryland was in 1988, when George Bush edged Michael Dukakis in the presidential election. The last time Marylanders elected a Republican as a statewide official was in 1980, when Charles McC. Mathias won his last term as U.S. Senator. Judging by these survey results, it is going to be difficult for the Maryland GOP to break their 20-year drought. Despite the fact that half of its eight members of Congress are Republicans, Maryland is, fundamentally, a Democratic state.
Incumbent U.S. Senator Paul Sarbanes is known to all but 5% of Maryland’s voters and is rated favorably by half. His unfavorable rating is 19%, producing a healthy 2.6-to-1 ratio of positives to negatives. Montgomery County Congresswoman Connie Morella’s name is recognized by 71% of Maryland voters. She has the lowest ratio of positives to negatives, 2.1-to-1. Baltimore County Congressman Bob Ehrlich, the most often-mentioned Republican challenger, was not recognized by 41% of voters surveyed. His ratio of favorables to unfavorables is slightly better than Sarbanes’ at 2.7-to-1.
Matched with Ehrlich, Sarbanes gets 53% to Ehrlich’s 30%, winning in every demographic subgroup except among Republicans. A Morella candidacy pulls Sarbanes just below 50%, and she edges Sarbanes, 43% to 42%, among whites. Morella cuts Sarbanes margin with Democrats from 74% against Ehrlich to 64% in a contest with her. Like Ehrlich, Morella wins with Republicans, but with just 56% of the GOP vote. Even Ehrlich pulls only 59% of Republicans at this point, with Sarbanes getting 20% in a race against him.
It wouldn’t be impossible for a Maryland Republican to beat Paul Sarbanes in 2000, provided there is a strong presidential candidate at the top of the ticket, but it is going to be a tough nut to crack.
Statewide Name
Recognition
I am going to read you the names of several individuals. After I mention each name, I would like you
to tell me if you recognize that person.
If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a
favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.
The first (next) name is _________________. Do you recognize that name?
(IF YES) Do you have a
favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that person?
|
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Neutral |
Don’t Recognize |
|
Paul Sarbanes |
50% |
19% |
26% |
5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Connie
Morella |
32% |
15% |
24% |
29% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Bob
Ehrlich |
27% |
10% |
22% |
41% |
QUESTION: If the year 2000 election for the United States Senate were held today, and the candidates were Paul Sarbanes, the Democrat, and Bob Ehrlich, the Republican, for whom would you vote?
|
|
Sarbanes |
Ehrlich |
Undecided |
|
Statewide |
53% |
30% |
17% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
50% |
37% |
13% |
|
Women |
56% |
23% |
21% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrats |
74% |
15% |
11% |
|
Republicans |
20% |
59% |
21% |
|
Independents |
44% |
22% |
34% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
48% |
38% |
14% |
|
African
American |
68% |
3% |
29% |
QUESTION: If the year 2000 election for the United States Senate were held today, and the candidates were Paul Sarbanes, the Democrat, and Connie Morella, the Republican, for whom would you vote?
|
|
Sarbanes |
Morella |
Undecided |
|
Statewide |
48% |
34% |
18% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
45% |
40% |
15% |
|
Women |
51% |
28% |
21% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrats |
64% |
22% |
14% |
|
Republicans |
25% |
56% |
19% |
|
Independents |
35% |
31% |
34% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
42% |
43% |
15% |
|
African
American |
67% |
7% |
26% |