Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, INC.
Contact: Carol Arscott 410-461-5744
Patrick Gonzales 410-974-4823
Methodology
This is the first of a series of periodic surveys of Maryland voters to be conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. of Annapolis, Maryland.
Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott, the former president and vice president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling & Strategy, Inc., formed Gonzales RM&S Research &Communications, Inc. earlier this year.
Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in the Anne Arundel County Democratic Party who served as a principal advisor to Janet Owens’ 1998 campaign for County Executive. Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party.
Gonzales and Arscott together have over 30 years of experience in politics. They have served as pollsters and consultants to dozens of political clients in Maryland since the mid-1980s, including County Executives Doug Duncan, Jim Harkins, Chuck Ecker, Eileen Rehrmann, and Robert Neall; and State Senators Tom Bromwell, Marty Madden, John Astle, Chris McCabe, and Jean Roesser.
This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from March 23rd through March 28th, 1999. A total of 806 registered voters were interviewed statewide by telephone. A cross-section of calls were made into each jurisdiction in the state to reflect general election voting patterns.
The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percent. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figure would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or race.
Sample Demographics
Men 399 (50%)
Women 407 (50%)
White 605 (75%)
African American 190 (24%)
Other/Refused 11
Democrats 468 (58%)
Republicans 258 (32%)
Independents 80 (10%)
Part 1 –
President Clinton and National Issues
Like Americans everywhere, Maryland voters voice approval of the job that Bill Clinton is doing as President by a margin of nearly two-to-one. What is apparent from this survey, however, is that the reason for their approval has nothing to do with their personal opinion of Clinton or his prowess in the arena of foreign policy. Maryland voters don’t like him much, are deeply divided on the bombing of Kosovo, and overwhelmingly believe that our national security has been threatened by the Los Alamos spy scandal. When the Clinton campaign adopted the motto, “The economy, stupid,” during the 1992 campaign, they had no idea how right they were. In the face of his slumping personal popularity ratings and discord on the world stage, the robust economy props up the President’s stratospheric job approval numbers.
Regarding the President, deep divisions among Marylanders are apparent between men and women, between Republicans and Democrats, and between whites and African-Americans. Statewide, 35% of survey respondents said they view Clinton favorably, and 46% unfavorably, with 18% holding a neutral opinion. Thirty percent of men hold a favorable view of the President, compared to 40% of the women. Fifty-three percent of Democrats have a positive opinion of Clinton, compared to 10% of Republicans, and just 17% of independents. Most dramatic, only 27% of white voters surveyed hold a favorable view of Clinton, compared to 62% of African-Americans. Divisions are less dramatic in the job approval question, where only Republicans buck the popular trend to disapprove of the President’s performance in office.
Maryland voters are profoundly divided on the bombing of Kosovo, split almost evenly on the issue, 44% approving of the action and 43% disapproving. Democrats back the Kosovo action, but even among the President’s partisans, approval falls just below 50%, and nearly a fifth of Democrats said they were undecided. Only among African-Americans do a majority of voters voice approval for the bombing campaign, though a plurality of men are on board. Independents record the most negative reaction, disapproving of the bombing by a two-to-one margin.
Seven out of ten Marylanders believe that the national security interests of the United States have been threatened by alleged spying at the Los Alamos Weapons Laboratory. Sixty-five percent of Democrats, and even 49% of Clinton’s most loyal supporters, African-Americans, believe that damage has been done.
NAME RECOGNITION: Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of Bill Clinton?
|
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Neutral |
Don’t Recognize |
|
Statewide |
35% |
47% |
18% |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
30% |
51% |
19% |
- |
|
Women |
40% |
43% |
17% |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrats |
53% |
32% |
15% |
- |
|
Republicans |
10% |
73% |
17% |
- |
|
Independents |
17% |
48% |
35% |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
27% |
56% |
17% |
- |
|
African
American |
62% |
18% |
20% |
- |
QUESTION: Do
you approve or disapprove of the job Bill Clinton is doing as president?
|
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
Undecided |
|
Statewide |
64% |
33% |
3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
61% |
38% |
1% |
|
Women |
67% |
28% |
5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrats |
78% |
18% |
4% |
|
Republicans |
39% |
59% |
2% |
|
Independents |
65% |
32% |
3% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
57% |
39% |
4% |
|
African
American |
85% |
14% |
1% |
QUESTION: Earlier this week, United States forces, acting in conjunction with NATO, began a bombing campaign in Kosovo. Clinton and his supporters said that they fear that the conflict there would spread to other areas if we did not act. Opponents of U.S. involvement say that the mission is not well defined and that the United States has no direct interest there. Do you approve or disapprove of bombing in Kosovo?
|
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
Undecided |
|
Statewide |
44% |
43% |
13% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
47% |
41% |
12% |
|
Women |
41% |
45% |
14% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrats |
49% |
32% |
19% |
|
Republicans |
39% |
56% |
5% |
|
Independents |
31% |
62% |
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
38% |
46% |
16% |
|
African
American |
64% |
33% |
3% |
QUESTION: Earlier this month, a scientist at the Los Alamos Weapons Research Laboratory was fired under suspicion of spying for China. Based on what you know about this issue, do you believe that national security interests of the United States have been threatened, or not?
|
|
Yes |
No |
Not Sure |
|
Statewide |
71% |
8% |
21% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
77% |
4% |
19% |
|
Women |
65% |
12% |
23% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrats |
65% |
11% |
24% |
|
Republicans |
83% |
3% |
14% |
|
Independents |
67% |
6% |
27% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
78% |
9% |
13% |
|
African
American |
49% |
4% |
47% |
Part 2 –
Governor Glendening and Statewide Issues
As the 1999 session of the Maryland General Assembly winds down to a close in less than two weeks’ time, two major issues, both sources of controversy, are still hanging fire, gay rights and a $1.00 per pack increase in the cigarette tax. Another that seemed settled, the Marriott deal, received a burst of bad publicity over the weekend when the Baltimore Sun reported that documents obtained under Virginia’s Freedom of Information Act revealed that Marriott had decided to remain in Maryland a month before the pact was inked.
Judging by the survey results, the notion that gays and lesbians should have the same civil rights protections as other minorities is not nearly as controversial among the voters as it seems to be among legislators. Fully 69% of Maryland voters said that they approve of the Governor's proposed legislation while just 22% disapprove. Majorities in every demographic subgroup in the sample, including Republicans, said that they support the bill. Democrats posted a 79% level of support, and that figure was matched by support among African-Americans, whom some legislators seem to believe would be aggrieved by having the legal status of gays and lesbians equated with theirs.
The Marriott deal splits Marylanders nearly down the middle, with 41% approving of the package and 43% voicing disapproval. Men backed the deal while women disapproved. Republicans were more likely to support the pact than Democrats, while Independents recorded the most negative reaction, with just 24% supporting the deal. Whites and African-Americans supported the Marriott package in nearly equal numbers, but blacks were more likely to disapprove of the deal than whites.
A majority of Maryland voters statewide support a $1.00 per pack increase in the cigarette tax, though demographic differences appear in the survey’s subgroups. Men are evenly split on the tax increase, while women back it by a two-to-one margin. Democrats support it overwhelmingly while Republicans line up against the higher tax with nearly equal fervor. Independents and whites approve of the $1.00 per pack increase by margins similar to the overall survey result, white African-Americans narrowly disapprove of the tax hike.
Parris Glendening’s personal popularity rating with Maryland voters is reasonably good, with his favorable ranking exceeding his unfavorable ranking by a margin of more than two-to-one. Forty-eight of Marylanders expressed a favorable opinion, 23% an unfavorable view, and 29% hold a neutral assessment of the Governor.
Glendening posts particularly strong number with Democrats and African-Americans, but lags with Republicans and Independents, 49% of whom said they hold a neutral opinion of the Governor.
NAME RECOGNITION: Do you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of Parris Glendening?
|
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Neutral |
Don’t Recognize |
|
Statewide |
48% |
23% |
29% |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
45% |
27% |
28% |
- |
|
Women |
51% |
19% |
30% |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrats |
66% |
11% |
23% |
- |
|
Republicans |
22% |
46% |
32% |
- |
|
Independents |
33% |
18% |
49% |
- |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
42% |
28% |
30% |
- |
|
African
American |