Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

 

“Maryland’s leader in public opinion polling”

 

 

 

 

 

Maryland Poll

 

Presidential Election

United States Senate Election

 

 

October 2004

 

 

Contact: Patrick Gonzales    410-974-4669

 

 

 

 

www.garesearch.com

 

 

Methodology

 

 

 

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science.  He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research & Communications, Inc. 

 

Over the past two decades, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland.  Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

 

Laslo V. Boyd is president of Mellenbrook Policy Advisors, a consulting firm specializing in policy, planning, and communications strategies, and an associate partner of Gonzales Research.  Dr. Boyd received his Ph.D. from the University of Pennsylvania and has over 30 years of experience in higher education, government, and public policy.

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from October 1st through October 5th, 2004.  A total of 809 registered voters in Maryland who indicated that they were going to vote on November 2nd were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of interviews were conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

 

 

 

 

 

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         397   (49%)

 

White        613   (76%)

 

Eastern Shore/S Md   105    (13%)

Female      412   (51%)

Black        183   (23%)

Baltimore City             82    (10%)

 

Other/Ref   13 

Baltimore Suburbs     274    (34%)

 

 

Washington Suburbs  257    (32%)

 

 

Western Maryland       91    (11%)

Party Registration

Military Service

 

 

Democrat         450   (56%)

Served in

Military     171       (21%)

 

 

Republican       259   (32%)

Served during

Vietnam      62       (8%)

 

 

Independent     100   (12%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings are as follows:

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md

 

Baltimore City

Baltimore Suburbs

Washington Suburbs

Western Maryland

 

Calvert Co.

 

Baltimore City

 

Anne Arundel Co.

 

Montgomery Co.

 

Allegany Co.

Caroline Co.

 

Baltimore Co.

 Prince George’s Co.

Carroll Co.

Cecil Co.

 

Harford Co.

 

Frederick Co.

Charles Co.

 

Howard Co.

 

Garrett Co.

Dorchester Co.

 

 

 

Washington Co.

Kent Co.

 

 

 

 

Queen Anne’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Somerset Co.

 

 

 

 

St. Mary’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Talbot Co.

 

 

 

 

Wicomico Co.

 

 

 

 

Worcester Co.

 

 

 

 

 

Summary

 

 

George W. Bush Job Approval

 

Statewide in Maryland, 44% approve of the job President George Bush is doing, while 53% disapprove (up 2 points since August), and 3% offer no opinion on his job performance. 

 

Bush Job Rating

Approve

Disapprove

No answer

 

 

 

 

October 2004

44%

53%

3%

August 2004

43%

51%

6%

June 2004

39%

54%

7%

March 2004

45%

47%

8%

February 2004

41%

53%

6%

December 2003

47%

46%

7%

August 2003

43%

48%

9%

April 2003

62%

31%

7%

September 2002

63%

28%

9%

January 2002

74%

16%

10%

May 2001

48%

34%

18%

February 2001

47%

34%

19%

 

 

Eighty-two percent of Republicans approve of what Bush is doing, 75% of Democrats disapprove; independents are more split with a majority tilting toward disapproval (54%).

 

 

Presidential Match-up

 

In an election match-up, the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards continues with a double-digit lead in Maryland.  Statewide, 52% of voters say that if the election were held today, they would vote for Kerry/Edwards, while 42% support the GOP ticket of Bush and Dick Cheney, a mere 1% say they’ll vote for Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo, and 5% are undecided.

 

As has been the case throughout this election in Maryland, the two major party nominees’ electoral positions derive from their respective party bases.  Kerry, at this point, leads Bush among independents 46% to 38%.

 

Bush leads Kerry in three of the five regions of the state, but Kerry’s margins in Baltimore City and the Washington suburbs give him his 10 point lead.

 

 

 

 

Among Marylanders who’ve served in the military at one time or another, Bush leads Kerry 49% to 41%.  Among those who served during the Vietnam era, Bush enjoys a much more commanding lead, 65%-34%.

 

Bush’s supporters are much more apt to be voting for him because they like him, as opposed to voting for him because they dislike John Kerry.  Statewide, 72% of Bush voters say they support him because they like him “very much,” 22% because they like him “somewhat,” while only 5% are voting for him because they dislike Kerry.

 

Kerry voters, on the other hand, are significantly more driven by an aversion to the opponent – 29% say they’re voting for Kerry because they dislike Bush, while only 34% say they’re voting for the Massachusetts senator because they like Kerry “very much” and 33% because they like him “somewhat.”

 

In an attempt to gauge how Marylanders feel about the recent contretemps surrounding Bush and Kerry’s behavior 35 years ago, we asked the following, “There has been much discussion about George W. Bush’s and John Kerry’s activities during the Vietnam War period.  Does the behavior of either candidate during that period matter to you, or not?”

 

Statewide, 26% of Free State voters say that this matters, while over two-thirds (68%) say what Bush and Kerry did in the late sixties and early seventies does not matter.

 

Bush voters are more apt than Kerry voters to say that it matters, and those Marylanders who served in the military during the Vietnam War era are most likely of all to say that it matters to them (45%).

 

 

U.S. Senate Election

 

Three-term incumbent Barbara Mikulski remains popular with Maryland voters.  Statewide, 59% approve of the job she’s doing in Washington, while 25% disapprove, and 16% offer no opinion.

 

A majority of 51% of Republicans disapprove of Mikulski’s performance in office, but over one-third (36%) approve of her – these numbers illuminating the difficulty the GOP faces trying to take out a popular Democrat in Maryland.

 

In an election match-up, 58% say they’d vote for Mikulski if the election were held today, while 34% say they’ll vote for Republican State Senator E.J. Pipkin, with 1% each going to Maria Allwine, the Green Party candidate, and Thomas Trump, the Constitution Party candidate, and 6% are undecided.

 

Mikulski leads in four of the five regions in Maryland, but her margin on the Eastern Shore and Southern MD is razor thin.  With Pipkin currently up in Western MD, Mikulski might lose a region of the state for the first time since 1986.

 

 

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Approve

44%

Disapprove

53%

No Answer

3%

 

 

 

 

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

 

 

Party

Approve

Disapprove

No Answer

 

 

 

 

Democrat

22%

75%

3%

Republican

82%

14%

4%

Independent

44%

54%

2%

 

 

Gender – Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

 

 

Gender

Approve

Disapprove

No Answer

 

 

 

 

Men

48%

51%

1%

Women

40%

56%

4%

 

 

Race – Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

 

 

Race

Approve

Disapprove

No Answer

 

 

 

 

White

53%

45%

2%

African- American

 

13%

 

81%

 

6%

 

QUESTION: If the November 2nd general election for president were held today, for whom would you vote: the Republican ticket of George W. Bush and Dick Cheney; the Democratic ticket of John Kerry and John Edwards; or the Populist Party ticket of Ralph Nader and Peter Camejo?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Kerry

52%

Bush

42%

Nader

1%

Undecided

5%

 

Party – November 2004 Presidential contest?

 

 

Party

Kerry

Bush

Nader

Undecided

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

       77%

19%

1%

3%

Republican

11%

83%

-

6%

Independent

46%

38%

2%

14%

 

 

Gender – November 2004 Presidential contest?

 

 

Gender

Kerry

Bush

Nader

Undecided

 

 

 

 

 

Men

48%

45%

1%

6%

Women

56%

39%

1%

4%

 

 

Race – November 2004 Presidential contest?

 

 

Race

Kerry

Bush

Nader

Undecided

 

 

 

 

 

White

43%

52%

1%

4%

African- American

 

83%

 

10%

 

-

 

7%

 

 

Region - November 2004 Presidential contest?

 

 

Region

Kerry

Bush

Nader

Undecided

 

 

 

 

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern MD

 

39%

 

56%

 

2%

 

3%

 

Baltimore City

 

79%

 

13%

 

1%

 

7%

Baltimore Suburbs

 

42%

 

52%

 

1%

 

5%

Washington Suburbs

 

68%

 

25%

 

1%

 

6%

Western Maryland

 

28%

 

68%

 

-

 

4%

 

 

 

 

Military Service – November 2004 Presidential contest?

 

Military

Service

Kerry

Bush

Nader

Undecided

 

 

 

 

 

 

Served in

Military (All)

 

 

41%

 

 

49%

 

 

-

 

 

10%

 

Served in

Military during

Vietnam

 

 

34%

 

 

65%

 

 

-

 

 

2%

 

 

 

 

Bush Voters

 

QUESTION: Do you support George Bush because you like him very much, or do you support him because you like him somewhat, or do you support him because you dislike the other candidates?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Like very much

72%

Like somewhat

22%

Dislike others

5%

No Answer

1%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kerry Voters

 

QUESTION: Do you support John Kerry because you like him very much, or do you support him because you like him somewhat, or do you support him because you dislike the other candidates?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Like very much

34%

Like somewhat

33%

Dislike others

29%

No Answer

4%

 

 

 

QUESTION: There has been much discussion about George W. Bush’s and John Kerry’s activities during the Vietnam War period.  Does the behavior of either candidate during that period matter to you, or not?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Yes, matters

26%

No, doesn’t matter

68%

No Answer

6%

 

 

 

Vote - Does behavior of either candidate during Vietnam matter to you, or not?

 

 

Vote

Yes

No

No Answer

 

 

 

 

Bush voters

33%

60%

7%

Kerry voters

18%

79%

3%

Undecided voters

27%

51%

22%

 

 

Military Service - Does behavior of either candidate during Vietnam matter to you, or not?

 

Military

Service

Yes

No

No Answer

 

 

 

 

 

Served in

Military (All)

 

29%

 

60%

 

11%

 

Served in

Military during

Vietnam

 

 

45%

 

 

42%

 

 

13%

 

 

 

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barbara Mikulski is doing as U.S. Senator?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Approve

59%

Disapprove

25%

No Opinion

16%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job Barbara Mikulski is doing as U.S. Senator?

 

 

Party

Approve

Disapprove

No Opinion

 

 

 

 

Democrat

74%

10%

16%

Republican

36%

51%

13%

Independent

52%

27%

21%

 

 

 

Gender – Approve or disapprove of the job Barbara Mikulski is doing as U.S. Senator?

 

 

Gender

Approve

Disapprove

No Opinion

 

 

 

 

Men

55%

28%

17%

Women

63%

22%

15%

 

QUESTION: If the November 2nd general election for U.S. Senate were held today, for whom would you vote: Edward E.J. Pipkin, the Republican; Barbara Mikulski, the Democrat; Maria Allwine, the Green Party candidate; or Thomas Trump, the Constitution Party candidate?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Mikulski

58%

Pipkin

34%

Trump

1%

Allwine

1%

Undecided

6%

 

 

Party - November 2004 United States Senate contest?

 

 

Party

Mikulski

Pipkin

Allwine

Trump

Undecided

 

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

76%

17%

1%

1%

5%

Republican

29%

62%

1%

1%

7%

Independent

50%

36%

3%

2%

9%

 

 

Gender – November 2004 United States Senate contest?

 

 

Gender

Mikulski

Pipkin

Allwine

Trump

Undecided

 

 

 

 

 

 

Men

51%

39%

1%

1%

8%

Women

65%

29%

1%

1%

4%

 

Race – November 2004 United States Senate contest?

 

 

Race

Mikulski

Pipkin

Allwine

Trump

Undecided

 

 

 

 

 

 

White

52%

40%

1%

1%

6%

African-

American

 

79%

 

14%

 

-

 

-

 

7%

Region - November 2004 United States Senate contest?

 

 

Region

Mikulski

Pipkin

Allwine

Trump

Undecided

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern MD

 

47%

 

45%

 

1%

 

1%

 

6%

 

Baltimore City

 

80%

 

9%

 

-

 

-

 

11%

Baltimore Suburbs

 

52%

 

40%

 

1%

 

1%

 

6%

Washington Suburbs

 

67%

 

26%

 

1%

 

1%

 

5%

Western Maryland

 

45%

 

48%

 

2%

 

1%

 

4%