Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

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Maryland Poll - Part 2

Presidential Contest

August 2003

Contact: Patrick Gonzales 410-974-4669

Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science. He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research.

Over the past two decades, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland. Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from August 13^th through August 20^th, 2003. A total of 829 registered voters in Maryland were interviewed. A cross-section of interviews were conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

This survey also includes a sample of 308 likely March 2004 Democratic primary voters. The margin for error on this sample is plus or minus 6 percentage points.

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

Gender	Race	Region
Male 410 (49%)	White 631 (76%)	Eastern Shore/S Md 94 (11%)
Female 419 (51%)	Black 182 (22%)	Baltimore City 80 (10%)
	Other/Ref 16	Baltimore Suburbs 298 (36%)
		Washington Suburbs 257 (31%)
		Western Maryland 100 (12%)
Party Registration
Democrat 469 (57%)
Republican 265 (32%)
Independent 95 (11%)

Regional Groupings are as follows:

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md	Baltimore City	Baltimore Suburbs	Washington Suburbs	Western Maryland
Calvert Co.	Baltimore City	Anne Arundel Co.	Montgomery Co.	Allegany Co.
Caroline Co.		Baltimore Co.	Prince George’s Co.	Carroll Co.
Cecil Co.		Harford Co.	Charles Co.	Frederick Co.
Dorchester Co.		Howard Co.		Garrett Co.
Kent Co.				Washington Co.
Queen Anne’s Co.
Somerset Co.
St. Mary’s Co.
Talbot Co.
Wicomico Co.
Worcester Co.

Democratic Primary Sample Demographics

Gender	Race
Male 134 (44%)	White 210 (68%)
Female 174 (56%)	Black 93 (30%)
	Other/Ref 5

Summary

President Bush Job Approval

The lingering war in Iraq seems to be taking its toll on President George Bush’s popularity in Maryland. Statewide, 43% say they approve of the job Bush is doing as president, while 48% disapprove.

Among Republicans, 79% approve and 11% disapprove; Bush’s rating with Democrats is nearly flipped: 21% approve and 72% disapprove. Among registered independents, 52% say they approve of Bush’s job performance and 33% disapprove, with 15% offering no answer.

This approval rating is the lowest it’s been in Maryland since Bush took office.

Bush Job Rating	Approve	Disapprove	No answer
August 2003	43%	48%	9%
April 2003	62%	31%	7%
September 2002	63%	28%	9%
January 2002	74%	16%	10%
May 2001	48%	34%	18%
February 2001	47%	34%	19%

President Bush enjoyed his highest job approval in January 2002, when basking in the goodwill generated by his forceful reaction against the Taliban in Afghanistan in response to the September 11^th, 2001 terrorist attacks; six months later; and in April of this year with the swift military success of ousting Saddam Hussein.

But the enduring – and costly -- military occupation of Iraq is now testing the patience of voters.

Presidential Match-ups in the Free State

Further bad news for President Bush here is found in election match-ups with two leading Democratic contenders. Matched up against former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, Bush trails 43%-42%, and against 2000 Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Lieberman, Bush is behind 45% to 41%.

In a hypothetical match-up against former First Lady and New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Bush manages to squeak ahead, but by a mere one point -- and the ultimate Democratic nominee is unlikely to be perceived as polarizing a figure as Clinton is today.

Democratic Primary

Among announced March 2004 Democratic primary candidates, Howard Dean currently leads the field with 25%, with Lieberman in second at 23%, followed by Massachusetts Senator John Kerry at 11%, Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt at 10%, activist Al Sharpton at 5%, and the rest receiving less than 5%.

If Hillary Clinton were to become a candidate, the field shifts dramatically with Clinton capturing 47%, Dean and Lieberman around 10%, and the others trailing badly.

Name Recognition

I am going to read you the names of several individuals. After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person. If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Neutral	Don’t Recognize
George Bush	44%	41%	14%	1%
Hillary Rodham Clinton	42%	39%	18%	1%

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

Statewide Results

Response	Statewide
Approve	43%
Disapprove	48%
No Answer	9%

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

Party	Approve	Disapprove	No Answer
Democrat	21%	72%	7%
Republican	79%	11%	10%
Independent	52%	33%	15%

Gender - Approve or disapprove of the job George Bush is doing as president?

Gender

Approve

Disapprove