Gonzales Research &

Marketing Strategies

www.garesearch.com

 

 

 

Maryland Poll - Part 1

 

Ehrlich Job Approval

Mikulski “Re-elect”

Slots

 

August 2003

 

 

 

Contact: Patrick Gonzales    410-974-4669

 

 

 

 

 

Methodology

 

 

 

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales graduated from the University of Baltimore in 1981 with a degree in political science.  He is the former president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling and Gonzales/Arscott Research. 

 

Over the past two decades, Mr. Gonzales has polled and analyzed hundreds of elections in Maryland.  Additionally, he and his associates have conducted numerous market research projects and crafted message development programs for businesses and organizations throughout the state.

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies from August 13th through August 20th, 2003.  A total of 829 registered voters in Maryland were interviewed.  A cross-section of interviews were conducted in each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  There is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender or party affiliation.

 

 

 

 

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         410   (49%)

 

White        631   (76%)

 

Eastern Shore/S Md    94    (11%)

Female      419   (51%)

Black        182   (22%)

Baltimore City             80    (10%)

 

Other/Ref   16 

Baltimore Suburbs     298    (36%)

 

 

Washington Suburbs  257    (31%)

 

 

Western Maryland     100    (12%)

 

 

 

Party Registration

 

 

 

Democrat         469   (57%)

 

 

 

Republican       265   (32%)

 

 

Independent       95   (11%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings are as follows:

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern Md

 

Baltimore City

Baltimore Suburbs

Washington Suburbs

Western Maryland

 

Calvert Co.

 

Baltimore City

 

Anne Arundel Co.

 

Montgomery Co.

 

Allegany Co.

Caroline Co.

 

Baltimore Co.

 Prince George’s Co.

Carroll Co.

Cecil Co.

 

Harford Co.

Charles Co.

Frederick Co.

Dorchester Co.

 

Howard Co.

 

Garrett Co.

Kent Co.

 

 

 

Washington Co.

Queen Anne’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Somerset Co.

 

 

 

 

St. Mary’s Co.

 

 

 

 

Talbot Co.

 

 

 

 

Wicomico Co.

 

 

 

 

Worcester Co.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Summary

 

 

Most Important Issue

 

Maryland's budget deficit persists as the number one issue for voters, cited by 29%, with education second at 23%, and the economy third at 10%; followed by crime, health care, transportation issues, gambling, taxes, growth, the environment, and gun control.

 

 

Bob Ehrlich

 

Governor Bob Ehrlich remains popular with Maryland voters as 57% say they approve of the job he’s doing as governor, while 30% say they disapprove.

 

Ehrlich’s job approval among Republicans is extremely high at 85%, and 60% of independents also approve.  Sixty-four percent of men and 50% of women approve of the job he’s doing.  Among Democrats, 41% approve of his job performance and 47% disapprove.

 

The Governor’s job rating has held steady over the past six months:

 

Ehrlich 

Job Rating

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

 

No answer

 

 

 

 

August 2003

57%

30%

13%

March 2003

56%

29%

15%

 

 

 

Barbara Mikulski

 

Even more popular than our Governor is our diminutive junior U.S. Senator:  Barbara Mikulski’s performance in office is approved by 64% of Maryland voters, while only 24% disapprove and 12% offered no opinion.

 

Three-term incumbent Mikulski receives estimable approval among Democrats (82%), women (75%) and independents (63%).  Her only soft spot is with the Governor’s most avid supporters: 48% of GOP voters disapprove of the job Mikulski is doing in Washington.

 

Adding to the state GOP party’s election dilemma next year (the party’s been aggressively searching for a viable candidate to challenge her) is Mikulski’s “re-elect” number.  Fifty-three percent of Maryland voters say they’ll vote to re-elect Mikulski in November 2004, while a mere 13% say they will definitely vote to replace her

 

Even among Republicans, less than a third (31%) say at this point they’ll definitely vote against her.  The reality is most probably will eventually, but she does not arouse the partisan passion among regular GOP voters that might aid the state Republican party’s recruitment effort.  And since she’s been in the Senate for nearly 20 years, and represented Baltimore in the House of Representatives for ten years before that, it’s safe to assume Marylanders feel they know Mikulski pretty well.

 

 

Slots and Gambling

 

The budget deficit in Maryland – and fallout from it – has produced a dramatic shift in voter attitudes toward slot machines: 57% of voters now say they favor allowing slots at Maryland racetracks.  This is the first time in the years we’ve been polling on the issue that a majority has indicated support for slots in Maryland.

 

 

Slots

 

Favor

Oppose

No answer

 

 

 

 

August 2003

57%

31%

12%

March 2003

47%

45%

8%

January 2003

46%

40%

14%

August 2002

46%

37%

17%

 

 

Majority support for allowing slots in Maryland touches every demographic subgroup, party, gender, race, and region.  Even in the Washington suburbs, where opposition to slots has always been strong, a majority now says that they favor allowing slot machines.  How long support for slots remains is likely a function of the state government’s handling of the deficit, and specifics attached to any new slots proposal.  The proposal passed by the Maryland Senate this past session (subsequently squashed in the House) was not well received by Maryland voters, as the 45% opposition in our March poll attests.

 

Reaction to casinos in Maryland is mixed, with 46% in favor and 42% opposing.  Forty percent of state voters favor banning gambling interests from contributing to political campaigns here and 49% would oppose a ban.

 

QUESTION: What do you feel is the most important issue facing the state of Maryland today?

Budget deficit                                       29%

Education                                             23%

Economy                                              10%

Crime/illegal drugs                                  8%

Health care/prescription drugs     6%

Traffic/transportation                               5%

Slots at racetracks/gambling                    5%

Taxes                                                     3%

Growth/development                              2%

Environment                                           2%

Gun control                                            1%

No answer                                             6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Bob Ehrlich is doing as governor?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Approve

57%

Disapprove

30%

No Answer

13%

 

 

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job Bob Ehrlich is doing as governor?

 

 

Party

Approve

Disapprove

No Answer

 

 

 

 

Democrat

41%

47%

12%

Republican

85%

4%

11%

Independent

60%

17%

23%

 

 

Gender - Approve or disapprove of the job Bob Ehrlich is doing as governor?

 

 

Gender

Approve

Disapprove

No Answer

 

 

 

 

Male

64%

24%

12%

Female

50%

36%

14%

 

 

QUESTION:  Do you approve or disapprove of the job Barbara Mikulski is doing as U.S. Senator?

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Approve

64%

Disapprove

24%

No Answer

12%

 

 

Party - Approve or disapprove of the job Barbara Mikulski is doing as Senator?

 

 

Party

Approve

Disapprove

No Answer

 

 

 

 

Democrat

82%

12%

6%

Republican

32%

48%

20%

Independent

63%

16%

21%

 

 

Gender - Approve or disapprove of the job Barbara Mikulski is doing as Senator?

 

 

Gender

Approve

Disapprove

No Answer

 

 

 

 

Male

52%

31%

17%

Female

75%

17%

8%

 

 

QUESTION:  If the November 2004 election for U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote to re-elect Democrat Barbara Mikulski, would you want to consider another candidate, or would you vote to replace Mikulski with a Republican?

 

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Re-elect

53%

Consider Another

34%

Replace

13%

 

 

 

 

 

Party - vote to re-elect Democrat Barbara Mikulski, would you want to consider another candidate, or would you vote to replace Mikulski with a Republican?

 

 

Party

 

Re-elect

Consider Another

 

Replace

 

 

 

 

Democrat

71%

25%

4%

Republican

20%

49%

31%

Independent

54%

38%

8%

 

 

 

Gender - vote to re-elect Democrat Barbara Mikulski, would you want to consider another candidate, or would you vote to replace Mikulski with a Republican?

 

 

Gender

 

Re-elect

Consider Another

 

Replace

 

 

 

 

Male

45%

38%

17%

Female

61%

30%

9%

 

 

 

 

 

QUESTION:    Do you favor or oppose allowing slot machines at Maryland racetracks?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Favor

57%

Oppose

31%

Not Sure

12%

 

 

 

Party - Favor or oppose slot machines

 

 

Party

Favor

Oppose

Not Sure

 

 

 

 

Democrat

51%

35%

14%

Republican

70%

24%

6%

Independent

54%

31%

15%

 

 

Gender – Favor or oppose slot machines

 

 

Gender

Favor

Oppose

Not Sure

 

 

 

 

Male

59%

27%

14%

Female

55%

35%

10%

 

 

Race – Favor or oppose slot machines

 

 

Gender

Favor

Oppose

Not Sure

 

 

 

 

White

56%

31%

13%

African- American

 

60%

 

32%

 

8%

 

Region - Favor or oppose slot machines

 

 

Region

Favor

Oppose

Not Sure

 

 

 

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern MD

 

55%

 

33%

 

12%

 

Baltimore City

 

53%

 

28%

 

19%

Baltimore Suburbs

 

66%

 

25%

 

9%

Washington Suburbs

 

51%

 

37%

 

12%

Western Maryland

 

54%

 

34%

 

12%

 

 

 

 

QUESTION:    Do you favor or oppose allowing casinos in Maryland?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Favor

46%

Oppose

42%

Not Sure

12%

 

 

 

QUESTION: Would you favor or oppose banning gambling interests from contributing money to political campaigns in Maryland?

 

Statewide Results

 

Response

Statewide

 

 

Favor

40%

Oppose

49%

Not Sure

11%