Gonzales RM&S
Research &
Communications, Inc.
Part 1
Governor’s
Election
Ravens Stadium
Comptroller
Election
Attorney
General Election
September 2002
Contact: Carol Arscott 410-461-5744
Methodology
Patrick E. Gonzales and
Carol A. Arscott formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at
the beginning of 1999.
Gonzales is a 1981 graduate
of the
This survey was conducted by
Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from September 12th
through
The margin for error,
according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5
percentage points. This means that there
is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range
if the entire survey universe were sampled.
The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as
gender and race.
|
Gender |
Race |
Region |
|
Male 409
(50%) |
White 617
(75%) |
Eastern Shore 85
(10%) |
|
Female 414
(50%) |
Black 197
(24%) |
|
|
|
Other/Ref
9 |
|
|
Party Registration |
|
|
|
Democrat 469
(57%) |
|
|
|
Republican 263 (32%) |
|
|
|
Independent 91
(11%) |
|
|
Regional Groupings
Eastern Shore - includes voters in these counties: Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester.
Baltimore City - includes voters in the City of Baltimore.
Baltimore Suburbs - includes voters in these counties: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard.
Washington Suburbs - includes voters in these counties: Montgomery, Prince George’s, Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary’s.
Western Maryland - includes voters in these counties: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington.
Analysis
The
trend lines have crossed – 2nd District Congressman Bob Ehrlich has
taken the lead in the Maryland governor's race, edging Lt. Gov. Kathleen
Kennedy Townsend by one point, 47% to 46%, with 7% undecided. Ehrlich trailed Townsend 47% to 43% in our
August survey, and was seven points back in July, when the race stood at 48% to
41%.
Ehrlich’s
made significant gains in Baltimore City (up seven points to 26%), in the
Baltimore suburbs (up from 58% to 62%), in Western Maryland (up from 53% to
57%), and especially on the Eastern Shore (up 10 points, to 53%), where the
voters are reverting to type after an extended period of flirtation with
Townsend's candidacy. Townsend, however,
picked up an additional two points in the DC suburbs, increasing her share of
the vote there from 56% to 58%.
The
gender gap is widening, with Ehrlich winning 56% of men to Townsend's 37%, and
Townsend capturing 55% of women, to Ehrlich's 38%. Whites voters are giving a larger percentage
of their votes to Ehrlich (57%, up from 52%), while Townsend's numbers with
whites slid from 38% to 35%. Meanwhile,
the work Townsend has been doing to shore up her base among African-Americans
appears to be paying off. Her share of
the black vote has increased from 75% to 81%, while Ehrlich's standing fell off
by a single point to 14%.
Ehrlich
is racking up an amazing 87% of the Republican vote (Townsend gets just 7% of
GOPers), while Ehrlich is stealing nearly a quarter (24%) of the Democrats, as
Townsend's share of her own partisans has slipped from 72% to 69%. Ehrlich leads among independents 51% to 39%,
up from 47% to 33% in August.
Townsend's
name ID troubles continue to dog her candidacy.
While she is recognized by all but 1% of general election voters, just
39% have a favorable impression of the Lieutenant Governor and an uncomfortable
35% hold a negative view (up from 31% in August). Ehrlich's overall name ID is up to 91% now,
with favorables at 44%. His negative
rating has also taken a jump, from 14% to 21%, but his positives still
outnumber his negatives by a two-to-one margin.
While
Ehrlich's lead over Townsend in the Baltimore area is growing steadily, and the
Republican-leaning voters in Western Maryland and the Eastern Shore are
"coming home," Ehrlich continues to come up short in the voter-rich
Washington suburbs. We would expect to see
the lion's share of resources in both campaigns spent in Montgomery and Prince
George's Counties in the next seven weeks.
Incumbent
William Donald Schaefer, having vanquished Democratic rival John Willis, leads
Republican candidate Gene Zarwell 59% to 28%, with 13% undecided.
In
the Attorney General's contest, incumbent Democrat Joe Curran leads Ed MacVaugh
54% to 29%, with 17% undecided.
We
asked Maryland voters if the Baltimore Ravens should relinquish their stadium
naming rights – worth up to $100 million – in order to name the stadium in
honor of the late, great Johnny Unitas, who died just last week.
Fifty-two
percent of those surveyed – and 61% of the men – said that the Ravens should
relinquish their rights regardless of the financial hit to the team, while 31%
said they should not. The remaining 17%
gave no answer.
QUESTION: If the November 2002 election for Governor and Lieutenant Governor were held today, for whom would you vote: the Democratic ticket of Kathleen Kennedy Townsend and Charles Larson, or the Republican ticket of Bob Ehrlich and Michael Steele?
|
|
Ehrlich/ Steele |
Townsend/ Larson |
Undecided |
Statewide
|
47% |
46% |
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
53% |
38% |
9% |
|
|
26% |
69% |
5% |
|
|
62% |
31% |
7% |
|
|
34% |
58% |
8% |
|
|
57% |
36% |
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
56% |
37% |
7% |
|
|
38% |
55% |
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
57% |
35% |
8% |
|
|
African-American |
14% |
81% |
5% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrat |
24% |
69% |
7% |
|
Republican |
87% |
7% |
6% |
|
Independent |
51% |
38% |
11% |
Name Recognition
I am going to read you the names of several individuals. After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person. If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.
|
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Neutral |
Don’t Recognize |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
39% |
35% |
25% |
1% |
|
|
44% |
21% |
26% |
9% |
QUESTION: If the November 2002 election for Comptroller were held today, for whom
would you vote: William Donald
Schaefer, the Democrat, or Gene Zarwell, the Republican?
Schaefer 59%
Zarwell 28%
Undecided 13%
QUESTION: If the November 2002 election for Attorney General
were held today, for whom would you vote:
Joe Curran, the Democrat, or Ed MacVaugh, the Republican?
Curran 54%
MacVaugh 29%
Undecided 17%
QUESTION: As you may know, there is an effort to name the Ravens' stadium in
Baltimore for Johnny Unitas, who died on Wednesday. Should the Baltimore Ravens relinquish the
stadium naming rights granted to them by the Maryland Stadium authority, which
could be worth over 100 million dollars to the team, in order to name the
stadium in honor of Johnny Unitas, or not?
|
|
Yes, Relinquish |
No, Don’t Relinquish |
No answer |
Statewide
|
52% |
31% |
17% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
61% |
33% |
6% |
|
|
43% |
29% |
28% |
Gonzales RM&S Maryland
Polls
Gubernatorial Tracking
Townsend Name ID
August 2000 to
Present
|
Date |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Neutral |
Don’t Rec |
|
Aug 2000 |
54% |
15% |
22% |
9% |
|
May 2001 |
52% |
20% |
19% |
9% |
|
Sept 2001 |
53% |
20% |
22% |
5% |
|
Jan 2002 |
46% |
26% |
23% |
5% |
|
July 2002 |
41% |
29% |
27% |
3% |
|
Aug 2002 |
40% |
31% |
27% |
2% |
|
Sept 2002 |
39% |
35% |
25% |
1% |
Ehrlich Name ID
March 1999 to
Present
|
Date |
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Neutral |
Don’t Rec |
|
Mar 1999 |
27% |
10% |
22% |
41% |
|
Aug 2000 |
21% |
7% |
26% |
46% |
|
Sept 2001 |
28% |
8% |
29% |
35% |
|
Jan 2002 |
32% |
9% |
28% |
31% |
|
July 2002 |
34% |
10% |
31% |
25% |
|
Aug 2002 |
38% |
14% |
35% |
13% |
|
Sept 2002 |
44% |
21% |
26% |
9% |
Townsend-Ehrlich Match-up
August 2000 to
Present
|
Date |
Townsend |
Ehrlich |
Undecided |
|
Aug 2000 |
52% |
29% |
19% |
|
Sept 2001 |
54% |
31% |
15% |
|
Jan 2002 |
50% |
35% |
15% |
|
July 2002 |
48% |
41% |
11% |
|
Aug 2002 |
47% |
43% |
10% |
|
Sept 2002 |
46% |
47% |
7% |