This survey is
provided free of charge. However, we
ask that Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. of Annapolis be
credited if the survey is cited in a news story or column.
Research &
Communications, Inc
Maryland Poll
January 2000
Part II
Presidential
Race
Contact: Carol Arscott
410-461-5744
Methodology
Patrick E. Gonzales and
Carol A. Arscott, the former president and vice president of Mason-Dixon
Campaign Polling & Strategy, Inc., formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999.
Gonzales is a 1981 graduate
of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in the Anne Arundel County
Democratic Party who served as a principal advisor to Janet Owens’ 1998
campaign for County Executive. Arscott
is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a
former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party.
Gonzales and Arscott
together have over 30 years of professional experience in politics. They have served as pollsters and
consultants to dozens of political clients in Maryland since the mid-1980s,
including County Executives Janet Owens, Doug Duncan, Jim Harkins, Chuck Ecker,
Eileen Rehrmann, and Robert Neall; and State Senators Tom Bromwell, Marty
Madden, John Astle, Chris McCabe, and Jean Roesser.
This survey was conducted by
Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from January 7th through
January 11th, 2000. A total
of 826 registered voters in Maryland were interviewed by telephone. All stated they regularly vote in statewide
general elections. A cross-section of
calls was made into each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general
election voting patterns.
The margin for error,
according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5
percentage points. This means that
there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within
this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any
demographic subgroup, such as gender, race, or region.
This survey also includes an over sampling of 368 likely March 7th Democratic presidential primary voters and 321 likely March 7th Republican presidential primary voters. The margin for error is ± 5% for the Democratic primary sub-sample and ± 6% for the Republican primary sub-sample. The respondents comprising these over samplings were only asked the questions pertaining to their party primary.
Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics
|
Gender Male 409 (50%) Female 417 (50%) |
|
Party Democrat 470 (57%) Republican 272 (33%) Independent 84 (10%) |
|
Race White 628 (76%) Black 187 (23%) Other 11 |
|
Region Eastern Shore/So. MD 99 (12%) Baltimore City 86 (10%) Baltimore Suburbs 279 (34%) Washington Suburbs 269 (33%) Western MD 93 (11%) |
Regional
Groupings
Eastern Shore/Southern Maryland - includes voters in these counties: Calvert, Caroline, Cecil, Charles, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, St. Mary’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester.
Baltimore City - includes voters in the City of Baltimore.
Baltimore Suburbs - includes voters in these counties: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard.
Washington Suburbs - includes voters in these counties: Montgomery, and Prince George’s.
Western Maryland - includes voters in these counties: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington.
Democratic
primary voters in Maryland seem to be behaving as true border state denizens
this year, their allegiance divided between Vice President Al Gore, the
establishment son of the South, and Bill Bradley, the upstart Northeasterner –
but with the party establishment holding the electoral advantage. For all the talk of so-called “Clinton
fatigue,” there seems to be a limit to the number of loyal Democrats who are
willing to tag Gore with the President’s personal failings.
Pre-Iowa,
and pre-New Hampshire, Gore polls 45% among Democratic primary voters
statewide. Former New Jersey Senator
and New York Knick Bradley gets 37%, while the remaining 18% are undecided
heading into the March 7th contest.
Gore voters are somewhat better informed than Bradley voters: Seventy-nine percent of Gore voters said
they know at least “a fair amount” about their party’s candidates, compared
with 68% of Bradley voters.
Divisions
within the Democratic primary electorate are instructive, and clearly
illustrate why the Vice President maintains his eight-point lead. Gore (52%) holds a commanding lead over
Bradley (30%) among women, who comprise a majority of the Democratic primary
electorate, and an even more impressive 70% to 21% advantage over Bradley among
African-American voters, who constitute an increasingly important subgroup in
the Democratic Party, particularly in Maryland.
Bradley
beats Gore among men (46% to 37%) and among whites (45% to 33%). These numbers should hearten Bradley
partisans looking forward to the General Election, but they’ll make little
difference as committed Maryland Democrats head to the polls in seven
weeks. All that said, a major hiccup in
either Iowa or New Hampshire could alter either candidacy’s momentum and
profoundly affect voter perception by the time March 7th rolls
around. But the burden remains on
challenger Bradley to demonstrate why his party’s incumbent vice president
should be denied the nomination
George
W. Bush, the 800-pound gorilla of the Republican Party, has a long way to fall,
both nationally and in Maryland, if he is to lose his party’s nomination. Bush racks up a majority of the vote in a
crowed field, polling 52% of Republican primary voters statewide; compared to
23% for Arizona Senators and Naval Academy grad John McCain; with former
Maryland Senatorial candidate Alan Keyes at 6%; publisher Steve Forbes at 3%;
former Reagan administration official Gary Bauer at 2%; and Utah Senator Orrin
Hatch with 1%. The remaining 13% are
undecided.
Bush
does equally well with men (52%) and women (51%), while McCain exhibits twice
the strength with males (29%) as with female voters (16%). Unfortunately for McCain, 20% of Republican
women remain undecided, compared with just 7% of men.
By
their own admission, Republican primary voters are slightly less well informed
about their array of candidates than Democratic primary voters, who have just
two choices to grapple with.
Interestingly, only 7% of Bush voters say they know “a lot” about their
party’s candidates, compared with 26% of McCain voters. This could prove to be significant should
McCain perform better than expected in Iowa or should be post a bigger than
expected win in New Hampshire. As with
the Democrats, the story told in the national media after these two early
contests will have a major impact on Maryland.
A
win in Maryland is key to the electoral strategy of any Democratic presidential
contender, while the state is virtually conceded by the Republicans. Vice President Al Gore holds the narrowest
of leads in the state against the two leading contenders for the GOP
nomination, a fact that shows a detachment in Gore’s connection with voters ten
months before the General Election.
That
said, it will wise to recall the old adage that a week can be a lifetime in
politics. According to recent surveys,
Gore is closing the gap on Bush nationally, and, of course, Vice President
George Bush (George W’s father) trailed Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis by
as much as 30 points nationally early on in the 1988 contest, then went on to
win rather easily.
Gore
leads Bush 44% to 42% in a hypothetical match-up, and is held to just 41% in a
contest with McCain, who is virtually tied with Gore at 40%. When the Republicans are matched with Bill
Bradley, the lead for the Democrat widens.
Bradley holds a 47% to 39% advantage over George W. Bush and a 45% to
35% edge over John McCain.
While
Bush and McCain do an equally good job holding Republicans voters against Al
Gore, McCain (74%) does a better job holding Republican voters in a contest
with Bill Bradley than Bush (67%).
Bush, on the other hand, pulls more Democrats (22%) and Independents
(40%) than McCain (14% and 32%, respectively).
While
Bradley, at this point, appears to be the Democrat’s stronger general election
candidate, such details rarely figure into primary election voting.
A
slim plurality of Maryland voters (48%) said they are satisfied that the
current two-party system is serving their needs and those of other
Americans. But 46% said that the
two-party system is not adequately meeting their needs and would consider
voting for a third party alternative.
Responses
were remarkably similar even across party and gender lines, with Independents,
not surprisingly, most supportive of the notion of a third party (60%). Interestingly, Bush voters (60%) in Maryland
are more satisfied with the two-party system than Gore voters (43%).
Credible
third party challenges generally develop during times of economic or social
upheaval, which certainly does not seem to describe the current national
condition. On the other hand, the
relative calm leaves voters plenty of time to focus on side issues, like the
money-soaked, “doublethink” political culture in Washington.
When
dissatisfaction with the two-party system at the national level is pervasive
and deep-seated as it appears to be among voters, the emergence of a third
party contender later this summer -- someone capable of influencing next
November’s results -- should not be dismissed out of hand.
**** 368 Likely March 7th Democratic
Primary Voters ****
QUESTION: If the
March 7th Democratic presidential primary election were held today,
for whom would you vote: Bill Bradley
or Al Gore?
|
|
Gore |
Bradley |
Undecided |
|
Statewide |
45% |
37% |
18% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
37% |
46% |
17% |
|
Women |
52% |
30% |
18% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
White |
33% |
45% |
22% |
|
Black |
70% |
21% |
9% |
QUESTION: How
much would you say you know about the candidates running in the Democratic
primary for President? Would you say
you know a lot about them, a fair amount, a little, or next to nothing about
the candidates?
A Lot 15%
A Fair Amount 57%
A Little 23%
Next to Nothing 2%
No Answer 3%
|
|
A Lot |
A Fair Amount |
A Little |
Next to Nothing |
|
Gore Voters |
17% |
62% |
21% |
- |
|
Bradley Voters |
19% |
49% |
31% |
1% |
**** 321 Likely March 7th GOP
Primary Voters ****
QUESTION: If the
March 7th Republican presidential primary election were held today,
for whom would you vote: Gary Bauer,
George W. Bush, Steve Forbes, Orrin Hatch, Alan Keyes, or John McCain?
QUESTION: How
much would you say you know about the candidates running in the Republican
primary for President? Would you say
you know a lot about them, a fair amount, a little, or next to nothing about
the candidates?
A Lot 9%
A Fair Amount 55%
A Little 19%
Next to Nothing 14%
No Answer 3%
|
|
A Lot |
A Fair Amount |
A Little |
Next to Nothing |
|
Bush Voters |
7% |
68% |
16% |
9% |
|
McCain Voters |
26% |
51% |
18% |
5% |
General
Election Match-ups
QUESTION: If the
presidential general election were held today, for whom would you vote if the
candidates were Al Gore, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican?
|
|
Gore |
Bush |
Undecided |
|
Statewide |
44% |
42% |
14% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
36% |
53% |
11% |
|
Women |
52% |
31% |
17% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrat |
64% |
22% |
14% |
|
Republican |
14% |
74% |
12% |
|
Independent |
31% |
50% |
19% |
QUESTION: If the
presidential general election were held today, for whom would you vote if the
candidates were Al Gore, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?
|
|
Gore |
McCain |
Undecided |
|
Statewide |
41% |
40% |
19% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Men |
34% |
51% |
15% |
|
Women |
48% |
29% |
23% |
|
|
|
|