This survey is provided free of charge.  However, we ask that Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. of Annapolis be credited if the survey is cited in a news story or column.

 

 

Gonzales RM&S

Research & Communications, Inc

 

Maryland Poll

January 2000

 

Part II

Presidential Race

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contact:     Carol Arscott  410-461-5744

 

 

 

Methodology

 

 

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott, the former president and vice president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling & Strategy, Inc., formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999. 

 

Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in the Anne Arundel County Democratic Party who served as a principal advisor to Janet Owens’ 1998 campaign for County Executive.  Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party. 

 

Gonzales and Arscott together have over 30 years of professional experience in politics.  They have served as pollsters and consultants to dozens of political clients in Maryland since the mid-1980s, including County Executives Janet Owens, Doug Duncan, Jim Harkins, Chuck Ecker, Eileen Rehrmann, and Robert Neall; and State Senators Tom Bromwell, Marty Madden, John Astle, Chris McCabe, and Jean Roesser.

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from January 7th through January 11th, 2000.  A total of 826 registered voters in Maryland were interviewed by telephone.  All stated they regularly vote in statewide general elections.  A cross-section of calls was made into each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender, race, or region.

 

This survey also includes an over sampling of 368 likely March 7th Democratic presidential primary voters and 321 likely March 7th Republican presidential primary voters.  The margin for error is ± 5% for the Democratic primary sub-sample and ± 6% for the Republican primary sub-sample.  The respondents comprising these over samplings were only asked the questions pertaining to their party primary.

 

 

 

 

 

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

 

 

 

Gender

 

Male         409 (50%)

Female      417 (50%)

 

Party

 

Democrat          470 (57%)

Republican        272 (33%)

Independent       84  (10%)

 

Race

 

 White          628 (76%)

 Black          187 (23%)

     Other          11

 

 

Region

 

Eastern Shore/So. MD          99 (12%)

Baltimore City                       86 (10%)

Baltimore Suburbs              279 (34%)

Washington Suburbs           269 (33%)

Western MD                          93 (11%)

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings

 

 

Eastern Shore/Southern Maryland                 -           includes voters in these counties: Calvert, Caroline, Cecil, Charles, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, St. Mary’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester.

 

Baltimore City                                        -           includes voters in the City of Baltimore.

 

 

Baltimore Suburbs                                  -           includes voters in these counties: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard.

 

 

Washington Suburbs                              -           includes voters in these counties: Montgomery, and Prince George’s.

 

 

Western Maryland                                  -           includes voters in these counties: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington.

 

 

General Summary & Analysis

 

 

 

Democratic Primary

 

Democratic primary voters in Maryland seem to be behaving as true border state denizens this year, their allegiance divided between Vice President Al Gore, the establishment son of the South, and Bill Bradley, the upstart Northeasterner – but with the party establishment holding the electoral advantage.  For all the talk of so-called “Clinton fatigue,” there seems to be a limit to the number of loyal Democrats who are willing to tag Gore with the President’s personal failings. 

 

Pre-Iowa, and pre-New Hampshire, Gore polls 45% among Democratic primary voters statewide.  Former New Jersey Senator and New York Knick Bradley gets 37%, while the remaining 18% are undecided heading into the March 7th contest.  Gore voters are somewhat better informed than Bradley voters:  Seventy-nine percent of Gore voters said they know at least “a fair amount” about their party’s candidates, compared with 68% of Bradley voters.

 

Divisions within the Democratic primary electorate are instructive, and clearly illustrate why the Vice President maintains his eight-point lead.  Gore (52%) holds a commanding lead over Bradley (30%) among women, who comprise a majority of the Democratic primary electorate, and an even more impressive 70% to 21% advantage over Bradley among African-American voters, who constitute an increasingly important subgroup in the Democratic Party, particularly in Maryland. 

 

Bradley beats Gore among men (46% to 37%) and among whites (45% to 33%).  These numbers should hearten Bradley partisans looking forward to the General Election, but they’ll make little difference as committed Maryland Democrats head to the polls in seven weeks.  All that said, a major hiccup in either Iowa or New Hampshire could alter either candidacy’s momentum and profoundly affect voter perception by the time March 7th rolls around.  But the burden remains on challenger Bradley to demonstrate why his party’s incumbent vice president should be denied the nomination

 

 

Republican Primary

 

George W. Bush, the 800-pound gorilla of the Republican Party, has a long way to fall, both nationally and in Maryland, if he is to lose his party’s nomination.  Bush racks up a majority of the vote in a crowed field, polling 52% of Republican primary voters statewide; compared to 23% for Arizona Senators and Naval Academy grad John McCain; with former Maryland Senatorial candidate Alan Keyes at 6%; publisher Steve Forbes at 3%; former Reagan administration official Gary Bauer at 2%; and Utah Senator Orrin Hatch with 1%.  The remaining 13% are undecided.

 

 

Bush does equally well with men (52%) and women (51%), while McCain exhibits twice the strength with males (29%) as with female voters (16%).  Unfortunately for McCain, 20% of Republican women remain undecided, compared with just 7% of men.

 

By their own admission, Republican primary voters are slightly less well informed about their array of candidates than Democratic primary voters, who have just two choices to grapple with.  Interestingly, only 7% of Bush voters say they know “a lot” about their party’s candidates, compared with 26% of McCain voters.  This could prove to be significant should McCain perform better than expected in Iowa or should be post a bigger than expected win in New Hampshire.  As with the Democrats, the story told in the national media after these two early contests will have a major impact on Maryland.

 

 

 

General Election Match-ups

 

A win in Maryland is key to the electoral strategy of any Democratic presidential contender, while the state is virtually conceded by the Republicans.  Vice President Al Gore holds the narrowest of leads in the state against the two leading contenders for the GOP nomination, a fact that shows a detachment in Gore’s connection with voters ten months before the General Election.

 

That said, it will wise to recall the old adage that a week can be a lifetime in politics.  According to recent surveys, Gore is closing the gap on Bush nationally, and, of course, Vice President George Bush (George W’s father) trailed Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis by as much as 30 points nationally early on in the 1988 contest, then went on to win rather easily.

 

Gore leads Bush 44% to 42% in a hypothetical match-up, and is held to just 41% in a contest with McCain, who is virtually tied with Gore at 40%.  When the Republicans are matched with Bill Bradley, the lead for the Democrat widens.  Bradley holds a 47% to 39% advantage over George W. Bush and a 45% to 35% edge over John McCain. 

 

While Bush and McCain do an equally good job holding Republicans voters against Al Gore, McCain (74%) does a better job holding Republican voters in a contest with Bill Bradley than Bush (67%).   Bush, on the other hand, pulls more Democrats (22%) and Independents (40%) than McCain (14% and 32%, respectively). 

 

While Bradley, at this point, appears to be the Democrat’s stronger general election candidate, such details rarely figure into primary election voting.

 

 

The Two-Party System

 

A slim plurality of Maryland voters (48%) said they are satisfied that the current two-party system is serving their needs and those of other Americans.  But 46% said that the two-party system is not adequately meeting their needs and would consider voting for a third party alternative. 

 

Responses were remarkably similar even across party and gender lines, with Independents, not surprisingly, most supportive of the notion of a third party (60%).  Interestingly, Bush voters (60%) in Maryland are more satisfied with the two-party system than Gore voters (43%).

 

Credible third party challenges generally develop during times of economic or social upheaval, which certainly does not seem to describe the current national condition.  On the other hand, the relative calm leaves voters plenty of time to focus on side issues, like the money-soaked, “doublethink” political culture in Washington. 

 

When dissatisfaction with the two-party system at the national level is pervasive and deep-seated as it appears to be among voters, the emergence of a third party contender later this summer -- someone capable of influencing next November’s results -- should not be dismissed out of hand.

 

****    368 Likely March 7th Democratic Primary Voters    ****

 

 

QUESTION:    If the March 7th Democratic presidential primary election were held today, for whom would you vote:  Bill Bradley or Al Gore?

 

 

 

 

Gore

 

Bradley

 

Undecided

 

Statewide

 

45%

 

37%

 

18%

 

 

 

 

Men

37%

46%

17%

Women

52%

30%

18%

 

 

 

 

White

33%

45%

22%

Black

70%

21%

9%

 

 

 

 

QUESTION:    How much would you say you know about the candidates running in the Democratic primary for President?  Would you say you know a lot about them, a fair amount, a little, or next to nothing about the candidates?

 

                                                A Lot                           15%

                                                A Fair Amount            57%

                                                A Little                       23%

                                                Next to Nothing         2%

                                                No Answer                  3%

 

 

 

 

 

Democratic Primary Vote Preference cross-tabbed by Knowledge of Candidates

 

 

 

A Lot

A Fair

Amount

 

A Little

Next to

Nothing

 

Gore Voters

 

17%

 

62%

 

21%

 

-

 

Bradley Voters

 

19%

 

49%

 

31%

 

1%

 

 

****    321 Likely March 7th GOP Primary Voters    ****

 

 

QUESTION:    If the March 7th Republican presidential primary election were held today, for whom would you vote:  Gary Bauer, George W. Bush, Steve Forbes, Orrin Hatch, Alan Keyes, or John McCain?

 

 

 

Bush

McCain

Keyes

Forbes

Bauer

Hatch

Und.

 

Statewide

 

52%

 

23%

 

6%

 

3%

 

2%

 

1%

 

13%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Men

52%

29%

5%

4%

2%

1%

7%

Women

51%

16%

7%

3%

2%

1%

20%

 

 

 

 

 

 

QUESTION:    How much would you say you know about the candidates running in the Republican primary for President?  Would you say you know a lot about them, a fair amount, a little, or next to nothing about the candidates?

 

                                                A Lot                           9%

                                                A Fair Amount            55%

                                                A Little                       19%

                                                Next to Nothing         14%

                                                No Answer                  3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

GOP Primary Vote Preference cross-tabbed by Knowledge of Candidates

 

 

 

A Lot

A Fair

Amount

 

A Little

Next to

Nothing

 

Bush Voters

 

7%

 

68%

 

16%

 

9%

 

McCain Voters

 

26%

 

51%

 

18%

 

5%

 

 

General Election Match-ups

 

 

 

QUESTION:    If the presidential general election were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Al Gore, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican?

 

 

 

Gore

 

Bush

 

Undecided

 

Statewide

 

44%

 

42%

 

14%

 

 

 

 

Men

36%

53%

11%

Women

52%

31%

17%

 

 

 

 

Democrat

64%

22%

14%

Republican

14%

74%

12%

Independent

31%

50%

19%

 

 

 

 

 

QUESTION:    If the presidential general election were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Al Gore, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?

 

 

 

Gore

 

McCain

 

Undecided

 

Statewide

 

41%

 

40%

 

19%

 

 

 

 

Men

34%

51%

15%

Women

48%

29%

23%

 

 

 

 

Democrat

60%

19%

21%

Republican

11%

75%

14%

Independent

30%

45%

25%

 

 

QUESTION:    If the presidential general election were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Bill Bradley, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican?

 

 

 

Bradley

 

Bush

 

Undecided

 

Statewide

 

47%

 

39%

 

14%

 

 

 

 

Men

41%

49%

10%

Women

53%

29%

18%

 

 

 

 

Democrat

61%

22%

17%

Republican

26%

67%

7%

Independent

36%

40%

24%

 

 

 

 

 

 

QUESTION:    If the presidential general election were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Bill Bradley, the Democrat, and John McCain, the Republican?

 

 

 

Bradley

 

McCain

 

Undecided

 

Statewide

 

45%

 

35%

 

20%

 

 

 

 

Men

37%

45%

18%

Women

53%

25%

22%

 

 

 

 

Democrat

63%

14%

23%

Republican

15%

74%

11%

Independent

37%

32%

31%

 

QUESTION:    Which of the following statements more closely reflects your opinion? 

 

(ORDER ROTATED)

 

·        The 2-party system in this country has worked for almost 150 years and is adequately serving my needs and those of other Americans, OR

 

·        The 2-party system in this country today is not adequately serving my needs and those of other Americans, and I would consider voting for a third party alternative.

 

 

 

 

2-Party System Serves My Needs

Would Consider Voting 3rd Party

No

Answer

 

Statewide

 

48%

 

46%

 

6%

 

 

 

 

Men

49%

48%

3%

Women

47%

44%

9%

 

 

 

 

Democrat

49%

44%

7%

Republican

51%

46%

3%

Independent

29%

60%

11%

 

 

 

 

Gore Voters

43%

50%

7%

Bush Voters

60%

36%

4%

Undecideds

27%

61%

12%

 

 

This survey is provided free of charge.  However, we ask that Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. of Annapolis be credited if the survey is cited in a news story or column