Gonzales RM&S

Research & Communications, Inc.

Maryland Poll

Part 2 – Congressional Races

July 2002

Contact: Carol Arscott 410-461-5744

Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999.

Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in Anne Arundel County politics. Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party.

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from July 2^nd through July 7^th, 2002. A total of 829 registered voters in Maryland who indicated they were likely to vote in this year’s general election were interviewed by telephone. A cross-section of calls was made into each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender, party registration or race.

The survey also includes an over-sampling of 401 voters in Maryland’s 2^nd Congressional District and 409 voters in Maryland’s 8^th Congressional District. The margin for error in both the 2^nd and 8^th District surveys is plus or minus 5 percentage points.

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

Gender	Race	Region
Male 412 (50%)	White 625 (75%)	Eastern Shore 84 (10%)
Female 417 (50%)	Black 195 (24%)	Baltimore City 83 (10%)
	Other 9	Baltimore Suburbs 272 (33%)
Party Registration		Washington Suburbs 298 (36%)
Democrat 470 (57%)		Western Maryland 92 (11%)
Republican 264 (32%)
Independent 95 (11%)

Regional Groupings

Eastern Shore - includes voters in these counties: Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester.

Baltimore City - includes voters in the City of Baltimore.

Baltimore Suburbs - includes voters in these counties: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard.

Washington Suburbs - includes voters in these counties: Montgomery, Prince George’s, Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary’s.

Western Maryland - includes voters in these counties: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington.

2^nd District Poll Sample Demographics

Gender	Race
Male 200 (50%)	White 298 (74%)
Female 201 (50%)	Black 100 (25%)
	Other 3
Party Registration
Democrat 256 (64%)
Republican 112 (28%)
Independent 33 (8%)

8^th District Poll Sample Demographics

Gender	Race
Male 201 (49%)	White 332 (81%)
Female 208 (51%)	Black 66 (16%)
	Other 11
Party Registration
Democrat 229 (56%)
Republican 115 (28%)
Independent 65 (16%)

Analysis

George W. Bush

Sixty-nine percent of Maryland voters say they approve of the job George W. Bush is doing as President, while just 19% say they disapprove. The remaining 12% are undecided. These are remarkable numbers for a man who lost this state by 17 points in November 2000. His numbers are down from the stratospheric post-9/11 highs of our January poll, when his approval rating stood at an even more amazing 74%. But 69% is plenty good for a Republican in the Free State.

High levels of approval for Bush cut across every demographic subgroup in the survey. Ninety percent of Republicans approve of Bush's performance on the job, but so do 58% of Democrats, the lowest figure on the chart. Perhaps most impressive – 63% of African-Americans say they approve of Bush's job performance.

2^nd Congressional District

Maryland's second Congressional District was rendered into a sprawling, barely contiguous blob in the recent redistricting process. Designed as the "Dutch Ruppersberger district," two-thirds of its voters are Democrats, and a quarter are black. This is a far cry from the district Helen Delich Bentley represented until 1994, but she is holding her own, just two points down in a race against the Baltimore County Executive. Ruppersberger leads Bentley 45% to 43%, with 12% undecided.

Bentley leads Ruppersberger 51% to 38% with men, but Ruppersberger leads with women, 52% to 35%. Bentley is ahead with whites (54% to 35%), and Ruppersberger leads with blacks (74% to 9%). Ruppersberger holds 62% of Democrats and picks up 10% of Republicans and 27% of independents. Bentley does better with the smaller Republican core (76%), and cuts more deeply into Ruppersberger's Democratic base (28%). She beats him solidly among independents, 47% to 27%.

Both candidates are very well known to 2^nd District voters. Bentley is recognized by 95% of the electorate, 63% favorably, 18% unfavorably, and 14% neutrally. Ruppersberger's name is recognized by 98% of the District 2 electorate, but favorably by just 42%, unfavorably by an uncomfortable 26%, and neutrally by 32%.

When told that the national committees of both the Democratic and Republicans Parties were targeting the 2^nd District race as a key to the control of the House of Representatives, 60% of Republicans said that would influence their vote, compared to just 31% of Democrats. No wonder this is a nationally watched race. This one has the potential to be a nail-biter.

8^th Congressional District

Connie Morella has confounded the Democrats for years. A Republican in a majority Democratic district, Morella had easily vanquished all opponents, until the 2000 election. That, when George Bush was being trounced in Montgomery County by Al Gore two years ago, Morella's win was merely adequate. This apparent vulnerability attracted a bevy of interesting candidates, chief among them Mark Shriver, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend's cousin and a member of the Maryland House of Delegates, and Chris Van Hollen, a favorite of environmentalists and a member of the Maryland State Senate. Former Clinton administration official Ira Shapiro and attorney Deborah Vollmer round out the field. And all are currently being thumped by Morella. She beats Shriver, 49% to 36%; Van Hollen, 50% to 35%; Shapiro, 53% to 29%; and Vollmer, 58% to 20%.

Against Shriver, Morella leads with both men (52% to 28%) and women (46% to 44%). She wins the white vote handily (57% to 32%), but loses African-Americans (52% to 16%). Morella holds an astounding 85% of the Republican vote against the Kennedy cousin, an important 61% of independents, and more than a quarter (27%) of Democrats.

Democrats have made much of the fact that President Bush held a fundraiser for Morella, asserting that his endorsement would work against her. It doesn't really seem to, it’s just a wash: 17% said they'd be more likely to vote for her because of Bush's nod, 17% said they'd be less likely, for the same reason, and 66% said that Bush's opinion made no difference to them.

Theoretically, Morella could be vulnerable, because 70% of District 8 Democrats indicated that they want their party to control the House of Representatives. We can imagine that each of Morella's Democratic opponents has a strategic poll with a similar question. Absent such information, it would have been foolish to attempt to take her on. But to be successful in November, the Democratic nominee in the 8^th is going to have to cut into Morella’s huge advantage with independents (possible) and the overwhelming lead she enjoys among her party base (less likely), and this is assuming all the yellow dogs eventually come home.

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president?

	Approve	Disapprove	Undecided
Statewide	69%	19%	12%
Eastern Shore	67%	18%	15%
Baltimore City	64%	19%	17%
Baltimore Suburbs	74%	16%	10%
Washington Suburbs	63%	24%	13%
Western Maryland	79%	12%	9%
Men	72%	19%	9%
Women	66%	19%	15%
White	71%	19%	10%
African-American	63%	20%	17%
Democrat	58%	27%	15%
Republican	90%	4%	6%
Independent	67%	21%	12%

2^nd Congressional District

I am going to read you the names of several individuals. After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person. If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Neutral	Don’t Recognize
Helen Bentley	63%	18%	14%	5%
Dutch Ruppersberger	42%	26%	32%	2%

QUESTION: If the November 2002 election for Congress were held today, and the candidates were Dutch Ruppersberger, the Democrat, and Helen Bentley, the Republican, for whom would you vote?

	Ruppersberger	Bentley	Undecided
Districtwide	45%	43%	12%
Men	38%	51%	11%
Women	52%	35%	13%
White	35%	54%	11%
African-American	74%	9%	17%
Democrat	62%	28%	10%
Republican	10%	76%	14%
Independent	27%	47%	26%

2^nd Congressional District

QUESTION: The national committees of both the Democratic and Republican parties have targeted the Congressional race here in Maryland's 2^nd District.  Each is counting on a victory here to help their party win control of the House of Representatives.  Will the issue of which party controls the House influence the decision you make when casting your vote for Congress, or not?

	Yes	No
Districtwide	37%	63%
Democrats	31%	69%
Republicans	60%	40%

8^th Congressional District

I am going to read you the names of several individuals. After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person. If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

	Favorable	Unfavorable	Neutral	Don’t Recognize
Connie Morella	64%	8%	22%	6%
Mark Shriver	28%	24%	25%	23%
Chris Van Hollen	21%	3%	40%	36%
Ira Shapiro	18%	6%	41%	35%
Deborah Vollmer	9%	7%	20%	64%

QUESTION: If the November 2002 election for Congress were held today, and the candidates were Mark Shriver, the Democrat, and Connie Morella, the Republican, for whom would you vote?

	Morella	Shriver	Undecided
Districtwide	49%	36%	15%
Men	52%	28%	20%
Women	46%	44%	10%
White	57%	32%	11%
African-American	16%	52%	32%
Democrat	27%	56%	17%
Republican	85%	7%	8%
Independent	61%	18%	21%

8^th Congressional District

QUESTION: If the November 2002 election for Congress were held today, and the candidates were Chris Van Hollen, the Democrat, and Connie Morella, the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Morella 50%

Van Hollen 35%

Undecided 15%

QUESTION: If the November 2002 election for Congress were held today, and the candidates were Ira Shapiro, the Democrat, and Connie Morella, the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Morella 53%

Shapiro 29%

Undecided 18%

QUESTION: If the November 2002 election for Congress were held today, and the candidates were Deborah Vollmer, the Democrat, and Connie Morella, the Republican, for whom would you vote?

Morella 58%

Vollmer 20%

Undecided 22%

QUESTION: President George W. Bush has endorsed Connie Morella for re-election. Does Bush’s endorsement make you more likely to vote for Morella, less likely to vote for Morella, or does Bush's endorsement make no real difference to you?

More Likely 17%

Less Likely 17%

No Difference 66%

8^th Congressional District

QUESTION: The national committees of both the Democratic and Republican parties have targeted the Congressional race here in Maryland's 8^th District.  Each is counting on a victory here to help their party win control of the House of Representatives.  Will the issue of which party controls the House influence the decision you make when casting your vote for Congress, or not?

	Yes	No
Districtwide	62%	38%
Democrats	70%	30%
Republicans	59%	41%