Gonzales RM&S

Research & Communications, Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

Maryland Poll

Part 2 – Congressional Races

 

July 2002

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contact:     Carol Arscott      410-461-5744

 

 

 

 

Methodology

 

 

 

 

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999. 

 

Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in Anne Arundel County politics.  Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party. 

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from July 2nd through July 7th, 2002.  A total of 829 registered voters in Maryland who indicated they were likely to vote in this year’s general election were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of calls was made into each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.  This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender, party registration or race.

 

The survey also includes an over-sampling of 401 voters in Maryland’s 2nd Congressional District and 409 voters in Maryland’s 8th Congressional District.  The margin for error in both the 2nd and 8th District surveys is plus or minus 5 percentage points. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

 

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         412   (50%)

 

White        625   (75%)

 

Eastern Shore                84    (10%)

Female      417   (50%)

Black        195   (24%)

Baltimore City             83    (10%)

 

Other            9

Baltimore Suburbs     272    (33%)

Party Registration

 

Washington Suburbs  298    (36%)

Democrat         470   (57%)

 

Western Maryland       92    (11%)

Republican       264   (32%)

 

 

Independent     95     (11%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Regional Groupings

 

Eastern Shore                      -           includes voters in these counties: Caroline, Cecil, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester.

 

 

Baltimore City                -           includes voters in the City of Baltimore.

 

 

Baltimore Suburbs             -           includes voters in these counties: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard.

 

 

Washington Suburbs      -            includes voters in these counties: Montgomery, Prince George’s, Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary’s.

 

 

Western Maryland              -           includes voters in these counties: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington.

 

 

 

 

2nd District Poll Sample Demographics

 

 

Gender

Race

 

Male         200   (50%)

 

White        298   (74%)

Female      201   (50%)

Black        100   (25%)

 

Other            3

 

Party Registration

 

Democrat         256   (64%)

 

Republican       112   (28%)

 

Independent       33    (8%)

 

 

 

 

 

 

8th District Poll Sample Demographics

 

 

Gender

Race

 

Male         201   (49%)

 

White        332   (81%)

Female      208   (51%)

Black          66   (16%)

 

Other          11

 

Party Registration

 

Democrat         229   (56%)

 

Republican       115   (28%)

 

Independent       65   (16%)

 

Analysis

 

 

George W. Bush

 

Sixty-nine percent of Maryland voters say they approve of the job George W. Bush is doing as President, while just 19% say they disapprove.  The remaining 12% are undecided.  These are remarkable numbers for a man who lost this state by 17 points in November 2000.  His numbers are down from the stratospheric post-9/11 highs of our January poll, when his approval rating stood at an even more amazing 74%.  But 69% is plenty good for a Republican in the Free State.

 

High levels of approval for Bush cut across every demographic subgroup in the survey.  Ninety percent of Republicans approve of Bush's performance on the job, but so do 58% of Democrats, the lowest figure on the chart.  Perhaps most impressive – 63% of African-Americans say they approve of Bush's job performance.

 

 

 

2nd Congressional District

 

Maryland's second Congressional District was rendered into a sprawling, barely contiguous blob in the recent redistricting process.  Designed as the "Dutch Ruppersberger district," two-thirds of its voters are Democrats, and a quarter are black.  This is a far cry from the district Helen Delich Bentley represented until 1994, but she is holding her own, just two points down in a race against the Baltimore County Executive.  Ruppersberger leads Bentley 45% to 43%, with 12% undecided.

 

Bentley leads Ruppersberger 51% to 38% with men, but Ruppersberger leads with women, 52% to 35%.  Bentley is ahead with whites (54% to 35%), and Ruppersberger leads with blacks (74% to 9%).  Ruppersberger holds 62% of Democrats and picks up 10% of Republicans and 27% of independents.  Bentley does better with the smaller Republican core (76%), and cuts more deeply into Ruppersberger's Democratic base (28%).  She beats him solidly among independents, 47% to 27%.

 

Both candidates are very well known to 2nd District voters.  Bentley is recognized by 95% of the electorate, 63% favorably, 18% unfavorably, and 14% neutrally.  Ruppersberger's name is recognized by 98% of the District 2 electorate, but favorably by just 42%, unfavorably by an uncomfortable 26%, and neutrally by 32%. 

 

 

When told that the national committees of both the Democratic and Republicans Parties were targeting the 2nd District race as a key to the control of the House of Representatives, 60% of Republicans said that would influence their vote, compared to just 31% of Democrats.  No wonder this is a nationally watched race.  This one has the potential to be a nail-biter.

 

 

8th Congressional District

 

Connie Morella has confounded the Democrats for years.  A Republican in a majority Democratic district, Morella had easily vanquished all opponents, until the 2000 election.  That, when George Bush was being trounced in Montgomery County by Al Gore two years ago, Morella's win was merely adequate.  This apparent vulnerability attracted a bevy of interesting candidates, chief among them Mark Shriver, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend's cousin and a member of the Maryland House of Delegates, and Chris Van Hollen, a favorite of environmentalists and a member of the Maryland State Senate.  Former Clinton administration official Ira Shapiro and attorney Deborah Vollmer round out the field.  And all are currently being thumped by Morella.  She beats Shriver, 49% to 36%; Van Hollen, 50% to 35%; Shapiro, 53% to 29%; and Vollmer, 58% to 20%.

 

Against Shriver, Morella leads with both men (52% to 28%) and women (46% to 44%).  She wins the white vote handily (57% to 32%), but loses African-Americans (52% to 16%).  Morella holds an astounding 85% of the Republican vote against the Kennedy cousin, an important 61% of independents, and more than a quarter (27%) of Democrats.

 

Democrats have made much of the fact that President Bush held a fundraiser for Morella, asserting that his endorsement would work against her.  It doesn't really seem to, it’s just a wash: 17% said they'd be more likely to vote for her because of Bush's nod, 17% said they'd be less likely, for the same reason, and 66% said that Bush's opinion made no difference to them.

 

Theoretically, Morella could be vulnerable, because 70% of District 8 Democrats indicated that they want their party to control the House of Representatives.  We can imagine that each of Morella's Democratic opponents has a strategic poll with a similar question.  Absent such information, it would have been foolish to attempt to take her on.  But to be successful in November, the Democratic nominee in the 8th is going to have to cut into Morella’s huge advantage with independents (possible) and the overwhelming lead she enjoys among her party base (less likely), and this is assuming all the yellow dogs eventually come home.

 

 

 

QUESTION:  Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president?

 

 

 

 

Approve

 

Disapprove

 

Undecided

 

Statewide

 

69%

 

19%

 

12%

 

 

 

 

 

Eastern Shore

 

67%

 

18%

 

15%

 

Baltimore City

 

64%

 

19%

 

17%

Baltimore Suburbs

 

74%

 

16%

 

10%

Washington Suburbs

 

63%

 

24%

 

13%

Western Maryland

 

79%

 

12%

 

9%

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

72%

 

19%

 

9%

 

Women

 

66%

 

19%

 

15%

 

 

 

 

 

White

 

71%

 

19%

 

10%

African-American

 

63%

 

20%

 

17%

 

 

 

 

 

Democrat

 

58%

 

27%

 

15%

 

Republican

 

90%

 

4%

 

6%

 

Independent

 

67%

 

21%

 

12%

 

 

2nd Congressional District

 

I am going to read you the names of several individuals.  After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person.  If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

 

 

 

 

Favorable

 

 

Unfavorable

 

 

Neutral

 

Don’t Recognize

 

 

 

 

 

 

Helen Bentley

 

63%

 

18%

 

14%

 

5%

 

Dutch Ruppersberger

 

42%

 

26%

 

32%

 

2%

 

 

 

 

 

QUESTION:  If the November 2002 election for Congress were held today, and the candidates were Dutch Ruppersberger, the Democrat, and Helen Bentley, the Republican, for whom would you vote?

 

 

 

Ruppersberger

 

Bentley

 

Undecided

 

Districtwide

 

45%

 

43%

 

12%

 

 

 

 

Men

38%

51%

11%

Women

52%

35%

13%

 

 

 

 

White

35%

54%

11%

African-American

74%

9%

17%