Gonzales RM&S
Research &
Communications, Inc.
Governor’s
Election
Congressional
Districts 2 & 8
October 2002
Contact: Carol Arscott 410-461-5744
Methodology
Patrick E. Gonzales and
Carol A. Arscott formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at
the beginning of 1999.
Gonzales is a 1981 graduate
of the
This survey was conducted by
Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from October 14th
through
The margin for error,
according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5
percentage points. This means that there
is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this
range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic
subgroup, such as gender or race.
The survey also includes an
over-sampling of 331 voters in
|
Gender |
Race |
Region |
|
Male 405
(48%) |
White 628
(75%) |
Eastern Shore 78
(9%) |
|
Female 435
(52%) |
Black 199
(24%) |
|
|
|
Other/Ref
13 |
|
|
Party Registration |
|
|
|
Democrat 476
(57%) |
|
|
|
Republican 269 (32%) |
|
|
|
Independent 95
(11%) |
|
|
Regional Groupings
Baltimore Suburbs - includes voters in these counties: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard.
Washington Suburbs - includes voters in these counties: Montgomery, Prince George’s, Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary’s.
Western Maryland - includes voters in these counties: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington.
|
Gender |
Race |
|
Male 162
(49%) |
White 241
(73%) |
|
Female 169
(51%) |
Black 86
(26%) |
|
|
Other 4 |
|
Party Registration |
|
|
Democrat 215
(65%) |
|
|
Republican 89
(27%) |
|
|
Independent 27
(8%) |
|
|
Gender |
Race |
|
Male 156
(47%) |
White 264
(79%) |
|
Female 177
(53%) |
Black 56
(17%) |
|
|
Other 13 |
|
Party Registration |
|
|
Democrat 189
(57%) |
|
|
Republican 87
(26%) |
|
|
Independent 57
(17%) |
|
Analysis
Wow,
is this ever close! Republican Bob
Ehrlich holds on to a razor-thin lead over Democrat Kathleen Kennedy Townsend,
46% to 45%, with 7% undecided.
Libertarian Spear Lancaster polls at 1% of the statewide vote. Each major candidate slipped one point after
a month of intense campaigning.
Ehrlich
stretched his lead on the Eastern Shore from 53% to 38% in September to 57% to
32% in this survey, and widened the gap in Western Maryland from 57% to 36%
last month to 61% to 30% two weeks before Election Day. Ehrlich enjoys a 2-to-1 advantage over
Townsend in the Baltimore suburbs (60% to 31%), but slid a little off the 62%
share of the vote he held in the September poll. Townsend solidified her grip on Baltimore
City (74% to 20%), where she gained five points and Ehrlich dropped six. Voters in the Washington region were more
stable, with Ehrlich losing, and Townsend gaining, just one point each
(Townsend 59%, Ehrlich 33%).
Townsend
gained a point among men (39% to 38%), but lost three points with women (55% to
52%). Conversely, Ehrlich gained a point
with women (38% to 39%), but lost three points with men (55% to 52%). Ehrlich's share of the white vote is
unchanged at 57%; Townsend's is down to 33% from 35% in September. And Townsend looks to have gotten the black
vote back – Ehrlich's share is down to 11% (from 14%), and hers is up to 83%
(from 81%).
Democrats
and Republicans are holding pretty steady, with the candidates trading a point
a piece between the Ds and Rs. Ehrlich
holds a super-majority of Republicans (86%, down from 87%) and a quarter of the
Democrats (25%, up from 24%). Townsend
has 68% of the Democratic vote (down from 69%), and 8% of Republicans (up from
7%). But the independents remain
volatile, with 39% going for Ehrlich, 34% for Townsend, 3% for Lancaster, and
24% undecided.
A
month of negative advertising has taken its toll on the name ID number of both
major candidates (and also, probably, citizen goodwill toward politics in
general). Ehrlich's positives slipped
from 44% to 43%, but his negatives jumped from 21% to 33% since the September
survey. Townsend, however, is in worse shape, with positives at 42% and
negatives at 39% (up from 35%).
Libertarian Spear Lancaster is unknown to 77% of the electorate.
In
a race this close, the final outcome can hinge on literally anything: A small misstep, a particularly good ad, an
unexpected endorsement, rain on Election Day.
The relatively
small
group of undecided voters seem to tilt slightly toward Ehrlich two weeks before
the
election: His favorables among this group are a little
higher and the issue stances among undecided voters reflect his positions a bit
more.
On
paper Townsend has had almost everything in her favor, with a near 2-to-1 party
advantage, universal recognition throughout the campaign, and enough funds to
start a country. But it now seems
possible for Ehrlich to win this election, while falling short of his initial
goals of capturing 20% of the black vote and garnering over 40% in the DC
suburbs. Townsend and her campaign have
been very effective since the primary stymieing Ehrlich with these two important
voter blocks. But will she end up
winning the battle and losing the war?
Maryland's
ballooning budget deficit (24%) remains the Number One issue facing our next
governor, named by nearly a quarter of survey respondents, and up from 23% in
September. Among voters undecided in the
governor's race, the budget deficit looms even larger, named by 32%.
Education
is second once again at 19% (down from 21%), and crime and illegal drugs take
third position at 10% (up from 8%). In
single digits are the economy and traffic/transportation tied at 9%, health
care and prescription drugs at 8%, and taxes at 6%. Lesser concerns were gun control (5%), the
environment (3%), the DC sniper shootings (2%), and growth/development (1%). The remaining 4% gave no answer.
Kathleen
Kennedy Townsend recently called for expanding Maryland's ballistic
fingerprinting law to include rifles, while Bob Ehrlich has remarked that a few
of Maryland existing gun laws should be reexamined to judge their
effectiveness. Maryland voters have
their own opinions: Fifty-three percent
agreed that "[w]e already have enough gun control laws – we need to better
enforce the laws already on the books."
Thirty-six percent statewide felt that "[w]e need more and stronger
gun control laws." Eight percent
took the opposite view, that "[w]e have too many gun control laws
now." The remaining 3% gave no
answer.
Better
enforcement of existing laws is the favored position in every demographic
subgroup in the survey, except among Democrats and residents of the Washington
suburbs. Fifty percent of Democrats, and
54% of voters in the DC suburbs, say we need
more
and stronger gun control laws. Among
undecided voters, just 31% opt for more and stronger laws, with 61% saying that
we need better enforcement of existing gun control statutes.
2nd
Congressional District
Baltimore
County Executive Dutch Ruppersberger has opened up a four point lead, 47% to
43%, over former Congresswoman Helen Delich Bentley in the race to succeed Bob
Ehrlich in Maryland 2nd Congressional District. Ruppersberger led by two points, 45% to 43%,
in our July survey. Ten percent are
undecided.
The
biggest change over the last three months is in Bentley's favorable name
ID. It's been knocked back 14 points,
from 63% to 49%, while her negatives shot from 18% to 31%. Ruppersberger's favorables are up five points
to 47%, as are his negatives, from 26% in July to 32% in October.
Bentley
is holding her own with the District's Democrats, but has lost ground among
independents to Ruppersberger. His share
of the independent vote is up ten points, from 27% to 37%, while hers in down
six points, from 47% to 41%. Even more
significant is Ruppersberger's standing with Republicans. He has nearly doubled his take, from 10% to
19% since July, while Bentley slipped from 76% to 74%. In a district that is 65% Democratic, Bentley
can ill afford to lose a fifth of her base, even if she takes 31% of the
Democrats from Ruppersberger.
8th
Congressional District
In
July, before the primary, Congresswoman Connie Morella was handily beating all
comers in her quest to retain her seat in the 8th Congressional
District. In October, the contest is no
longer hypothetical, and Morella is locked in a tight race with State Senator
Chris Van Hollen, leading him 44% to 42%, with 14% undecided.
Morella
once stratospheric positives are a little closer to earth now, down to 56% from
64% in July – still enviable – but the campaign has clearly taken a toll on her
image, as her negatives have more than doubled, from 8% to 20%. Van Hollen's numbers are nearly identical –
57% positive, 21% negative.
Morella
is holding 80% of the Republicans, capturing 27% of Democrats, and 46% of the
independents. Her numbers with women
stand at 39%. Van Hollen gets the support
of 48% of women. Morella, however, holds
a wider lead among men, 49% to 36%. Van
Hollen
gets 48% of the black vote to Morella's 20%, with nearly a third of
African-American voters (32%) undecided as the campaign enters its final weeks.
In July, 30% of the District's Democratic voters said that their party's control of the House of Representatives would not affect their vote for Congress. In order to emerge the winner on November 5th, Morella must convince those voters that their initial instincts were right, and Van Hollen must persuade them that they were wrong.
QUESTION: If the November 2002 election for Governor and Lieutenant Governor were held today, for whom would you vote: the Democratic ticket of Kathleen Kennedy Townsend and Charles Larson; the Republican ticket of Bob Ehrlich and Michael Steele; or the Libertarian ticket of Spear Lancaster and Lorenzo Gaztanaga?
|
|
Ehrlich/ Steele |
Townsend/ Larson |
Lancaster/ Gaztanaga |
Undecided |
Statewide
|
46% |
45% |
1% |
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
57% |
32% |
1% |
10% |
|
|
20% |
74% |
- |
6% |
|
|
60% |
31% |
1% |
8% |
|
|
33% |
59% |
1% |
7% |
|
|
61% |
30% |
1% |
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
53% |
38% |
1% |
8% |
|
|
39% |
52% |
1% |
8% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
57% |
33% |
1% |
9% |
|
|
African-American |
11% |
83% |
- |
6% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrat |
25% |
68% |
1% |
6% |
|
Republican |
86% |
8% |
- |
6% |
|
Independent |
39% |
34% |
3% |
24% |
Name Recognition
I am going to read you the names of several individuals. After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person. If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.
|
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Neutral |
Don’t Recognize |
|
|
|
|