Gonzales RM&S
Research &
Communications, Inc.
National
Issues
Contact: Carol Arscott 410-461-5744
Methodology
Patrick E. Gonzales and
Carol A. Arscott formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at
the beginning of 1999.
Gonzales is a 1981 graduate
of the
This survey was conducted by
Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from May 9th
through
The margin for error,
according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 3.5
percentage points. This means that there
is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this
range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any
demographic subgroup, such as gender, party registration or race.
|
Gender |
Race |
Region |
|
Male 419
(46%) |
White 628
(75%) |
EastShore/So MD 100
(12%) |
|
Female 417
(54%) |
Black 199
(24%) |
|
|
|
Other 9 |
|
|
Party Registration |
|
WashingtonSuburbs 267
(32%) |
|
Democrat 481
(58%) |
|
|
|
Republican 271 (32%) |
|
|
|
Independent 84
(10%) |
|
|
General
Summary & Analysis
Marylanders
have completely reordered their priorities for the nation over the course of a
couple of months, when asked to name “the most important issue facing our
country today.” Nearly one-fifth (19%)
named education in response to this open-ended question, followed closely by
the economy (17%). These numbers differ
little from those in our February survey (education at 22%, economy at 17%),
but the former Number One issue – saving Social Security – has dropped to a
distant third, from 24% in February to 12% today.
Moral
and character issues make a surprising appearance in fourth place (11%), while
a brand new issue – rising gas prices – ranks fifth, named by 10% of
Marylanders surveyed. Health care (8%,
up from 6%), taxes (7%, down from 10%), foreign policy and defense issues (3%,
down from 5%), and campaign reform (2%, up from 1%) round out the list of
concerns. The remaining 10% offered no
answer.
Top
line job performance ratings for President George W. Bush remain virtually
unchanged from our February poll, with 48% saying they approve of Bush’s
performance in office, 34% saying they disapprove, and 18% offering no
answer. In February, 47% approved, 34%
disapproved, and 19% gave no answer.
There
are subtle differences, however, in the poll’s internal numbers. Men approve of Bush’s performance in office
57% to 29% (54% to 29% in February), while women are evenly split, 39% to 39%,
very close to the February figures (41% to 40%). Democrats (33% to 49%) are slightly more
likely to disapprove of Bush now than they were then (33% to 46% in
February). Republicans (78% to 8%), on
the other hand, are even giddier about Bush than they were before (75% to 12%). The biggest difference is among Independents
(50% to 34%), where there is some evidence that Bush is beginning to win them
over (38% to 34% in February).
During
the Presidential campaign, we asked Maryland voters for their opinion on “a
proposal being discussed that would allow younger wage earners direct a small
percentage of their Social Security tax payments into some type of private
investment account, while protecting the current system for retirees and older
wage earners.” Back in August, 49% of
Marylanders said they favored such a proposal, while 30% opposed it, and 21%
were unsure. The numbers among Democrats
were particularly striking – 37% backed the proposal while 34% opposed it.
In
our current survey, we repeated the essence of the question we first asked last
summer, but this time identified it as President Bush’s proposal, saying that
the he had recently “appointed a bi-partisan commission to make recommendations
on how to implement this plan.” The
result is quite stunning: The same plan,
this time tied to President Bush, is opposed by 48% and favored by just 42%,
with 10% offering no answer. Key to this
change in sentiment is desertion by Democrats and Independents who said they
favored the proposal in August.
Democrats now oppose the plan 65% to 27%, and Independents favor it 41%
to 37%, whereas they said they approved of the plan 61% to 26% last
summer. Republicans, on the other hand,
hung tough, supporting Bush’s initiative 68% to 22% (compared to 66% to 24% in August).
With
the recommendation of Vice President Cheney’s energy task force due this week,
Bush can take some comfort that Marylanders, most of whom live in relatively
close proximity to at least one nuclear power plant, are supportive of the
construction of additional nuclear power plants to generate electricity. Fifty-seven percent of Marylanders said they
would favor a policy that recommended the construction of nuclear power plants,
32% would oppose such a policy, and 11% offered no answer.
Nuclear
power plants were favored by at least a plurality in every demographic subgroup
in the survey, with Republicans (80%), men (67%), and independents (52%) the
most enthusiastic.
When it comes to drilling for oil and natural gas in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, however, the President has some explaining to do in order to sell his plan to the public. Overall, 43% of Maryland voters said they would favor “opening a portion of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge to oil and natural gas exploration,” while a majority – 51% -- said they were opposed. The remaining 6% offered no answer. A yawning gender gap opens up on this question, with 51% of men favoring exploration in ANWR and 58% of women opposed. Republicans and Democrats, similarly, give nearly opposite responses: Sixty percent of Democrats opposed drilling in ANWR, while 63% of Republicans favor it. A key constituency on environmental issues – Independents – are opposed, 55% to 38%.
QUESTION: In your opinion, what is the most important issue facing our country today?
Education 19%
Saving Social Security 12%
Moral/Character issues 11%
Rising gas prices 10%
Health care/ Medicare 8%
High taxes 7%
Foreign Policy/National defense 3%
Campaign reform 2%
No answer 10%
QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president?
|
|
Approve |
Disapprove |
No answer |
Statewide
|
48% |
34% |
18% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
57% |
29% |
14% |
|
|
Women |
39% |
39% |
22% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrat |
32% |
49% |
19% |
|
Republican |
78% |
8% |
14% |
|
Independent |
50% |
34% |
16% |
QUESTION: President George W. Bush proposed during the fall campaign that younger wage earners be allowed to direct a small percentage of their Social Security tax payments into some type of private investment account, while protecting the current system for retirees and older wage workers. Earlier this month, Bush appointed a bipartisan commission to make recommendations on how to implement this plan. Do you favor Bush’s proposal to partially privatize Social Security, or do you oppose it?
|
|
Favor |
Oppose |
No answer |
Statewide
|
42% |
48% |
10% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
49% |
44% |
7% |
|
|
Women |
35% |
52% |
13% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrat |
27% |
65% |
7% |
|
Republican |
68% |
22% |
10% |
|
Independent |
44% |
37% |
19% |
QUESTION: As you may know, Vice President Cheney is chairing a task force that will soon be making recommendation on a national energy policy. There is some speculation that Cheney’s task force may recommend the construction of nuclear power plants to generate electricity, as opposed to plants powered by coal or natural gas. Would you favor or oppose a policy that recommended the construction of nuclear power plants?
|
|
Favor |
Oppose |
No answer |
Statewide
|
57% |
32% |
11% |
|
67% |
26% |
7% |
|
|
Women |
47% |
38% |
15% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrat |
46% |
39% |
15% |
|
Republican |
80% |
16% |
4% |
|
Independent |
52% |
38% |
10% |
QUESTION: Cheney’s energy task force
is likely to recommend that oil and natural gas exploration be permitted in a
small portion of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in northern
|
|
Favor |
Oppose |
No answer |
Statewide
|
43% |
51% |
6% |
|
51% |
44% |
5% |
|
|
Women |
35% |
58% |
7% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Democrat |
33% |
60% |
7% |
|
Republican |
63% |
32% |
5% |
|
Independent |
38% |
55% |
7% |