Gonzales RM&S

Research & Communications, Inc.

 

 

 

 

 

Maryland Gubernatorial Poll

2002 Democratic Primary

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Contact:     Carol Arscott      410-461-5744

Methodology

 

 

 

 

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999. 

 

Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in Anne Arundel County politics.  Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party. 

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from May 9th through May 13th, 2001.  A total of 519 registered Democratic voters in Maryland who indicated they were likely to vote in next year’s Democratic gubernatorial primary were interviewed by telephone.  A cross-section of calls was made into each jurisdiction within the state to reflect Democratic primary election voting patterns.

 

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.  This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled.  The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender, or race.

 

 

 

 

 

Maryland Democratic PrimaryPoll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

Region

 

Male         240   (46%)

 

White        347   (67%)

 

EastShore/So MD       58   (11%)

Female      279   (54%)

Black        166   (32%)

Baltimore City            72   (14%)

 

Other            6

Baltimore Suburbs    180   (35%)

 

 

WashingtonSuburbs  167   (32%)

 

 

Western Maryland      42     (8%)

 

 

 

General Summary & Analysis

 

 

 

Townsend vs. O’Malley

 

The political observers who have been wondering if anyone was capable of stopping Kathleen Kennedy Townsend on her seemingly inexorable march toward the Democratic gubernatorial nomination may have found their candidate in Martin O’Malley, the charismatic young mayor of the City of Baltimore.

 

In a surge from nowhere reminiscent of his 1999 campaign for mayor, O’Malley, in his first appearance in a Gonzales RM&S statewide survey, captures 40% of the vote to Townsend’s 47%, getting as close as any opponent ever has to overtaking the Lieutenant Governor’s juggernaut.  This is particularly notable in light of the disparity in name recognition between the two Irish-American pols.  Townsend is known to nearly all of  the state’s Democratic primary voters (92%), while O’Malley is known to but two-thirds of his party’s decision-makers (67%).

 

O’Malley beats Townsend handily in Baltimore City (54% to 39%) and its suburbs (53% to 35%), and splits the vote nearly evenly with the LG in the Eastern Shore/Southern Maryland region (Townsend 41%, O’Malley 40%).  Townsend leads O’Malley by seven points in Western Maryland (45% to 38%), and crushes him in the DC suburbs, 65% to 19%.  Despite his Rockville roots, O’Malley is clearly an unknown in Prince George’s and Montgomery Counties, where he garnered just 2% of the vote in the five-way match-up.

 

Townsend edges O’Malley 45% to 42% among white voters in the Democratic primary, and holds a 12% lead (50% to 38%) among African-Americans, who have provided Townsend with a solid base in previous surveys.  And there is no gender gap whatsoever – both men and women give Townsend 47% of their vote in a contest with O’Malley.

 

 

 

Townsend vs. The DC Area Executives

 

There has been periodic speculation among the chattering classes about the power of an alliance between Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan and Prince George’s County Executive Wayne Curry in a Maryland gubernatorial primary.  But it seems that “The Beltway Boys” are no match for the Lieutenant Governor, in any arrangement.  A ticket with Curry on top loses to Townsend, 55% o 21%, while a Duncan/Curry combination falls to Townsend by a vote of 57% to 20%. 

 

 

 

The Five-Way

 

The obligatory cast-of-thousands match-up was posed before the head-to-heads outlined above, following the name ID section and the job performance questions.  This included Baltimore County Executive Dutch Ruppersberger as well as the aforementioned candidates.  Townsend stays on top with 40% of the Democratic primary vote, followed by O’Malley with 19%, Curry with 9%, Ruppersberger with 8%, and Duncan with 7%.  The remaining 17% are undecided.  In our August 2000 gubernatorial primary survey, without O’Malley, Townsend led with 49%.

 

Doug Duncan’s public musings about his candidacy seem to have taken a toll with the voters, as he has slipped in the standings, from 12% to 7%.  Curry held his own, drawing virtually all his support from the DC suburbs.  Ruppersberger, on the other hand, picks up nothing in the Washington area, but has more penetration in the further-flung regions of the state than the other two county executives.

 

 

Analysis

 

Whether Martin O’Malley actually enters the gubernatorial fray in Maryland is pure conjecture, but the force of his personality clearly has the potential to upset Townsend’s apple cart.  O’Malley cuts deeply into Townsend’s base in the African-American community, and snatches the Baltimore suburbs from right under her nose.  The only thing holding Townsend’s head above water in a hypothetical contest with O’Malley is the Washington suburban vote.   O’Malley remains largely unknown there, but a campaign could change that in a matter of weeks.

 

Kathleen Kennedy Townsend began this contest with a big head start, owing to her near-universal name identification.  Martin O’Malley nearly erases her lead even without matching her superior name ID numbers.  If O’Malley decides to make this race, political observers everywhere will be in for a terrific show.

 

 

****    519 Likely 2002 Democratic Primary Voters    ****

 

 

Name Recognition

 

I am going to read you the names of several individuals.  After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person.  If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

 

 

 

 

 

Favorable

 

 

Unfavorable

 

 

Neutral

 

Don’t Recognize

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kathleen Kennedy Townsend

 

63%

 

14%

 

15%

 

8%

 

Martin O’Malley

 

41%

 

6%

 

21%

 

32%

 

Dutch Ruppersberger

 

25%

 

13%

 

16%

 

46%

 

Wayne Curry

 

20%

 

5%

 

30%

 

45%

 

Doug Duncan

 

 

18%

 

3%

 

29%

 

50%

 

 

 

 

Question:        Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kathleen Kennedy Townsend is doing as Lieutenant Governor?

                                                            Approve          69%   

                                                            Disapprove     11%

                                                            No opinion      20%

 

 

Question:        Do you approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as Mayor of Baltimore?

                                                            Approve          53%

                                                            Disapprove     16%

                                                            No opinion      31%

 

****    519 Likely 2002 Democratic Primary Voters    ****

 

 

 

QUESTION:  If the 2002 Democratic primary for Governor were held today, and the candidates were Wayne Curry, Doug Duncan, Martin O’Malley, Dutch Ruppersberger, and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, for whom would you vote?

 

 

 

 

 

Kathleen

Kennedy

Townsend

 

Martin

O’Malley

 

Wayne Curry

Dutch

Ruppers-berger

 

Doug

Duncan

 

 

Undecided

 

Statewide

 

40%

 

19%

 

9%

 

8%

 

7%

 

17%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern MD

 

38%

 

17%

 

2%

 

12%

 

7%

 

24%

 

Baltimore City

 

44%

 

38%

 

4%

 

1%

 

-

 

13%

 

Baltimore Suburbs

 

34%

 

30%

 

1%

 

17%

 

-

 

18%

 

Washington Suburbs

 

44%

 

2%

 

24%

 

-

 

19%

 

11%

 

Western MD

 

38%

 

17%

 

-

 

12%

 

7%

 

26%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

White

 

31%

 

21%

 

8%

 

12%

 

10%

 

18%

 

African-American

 

59%

 

16%

 

10%

 

-

 

-

 

15%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

42%

 

15%

 

8%

 

10%

 

7%

 

18%

 

Women

 

38%

 

23%

 

10%

 

6%

 

7%

 

16%

 

 

****    519 Likely 2002 Democratic Primary Voters    ****

 

 

 

QUESTION:  If the 2002 Democratic primary for Governor were held today, and the candidates were Martin O’Malley and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, for whom would you vote?

 

 

 

 

 

Kathleen Kennedy

Townsend

 

 

Martin

O’Malley

 

 

Undecided

 

Statewide

 

47%

 

40%

 

13%

 

 

 

 

 

Eastern Shore/ Southern MD

 

41%

 

40%

 

19%

 

Baltimore City

 

39%

 

54%

 

7%

 

Baltimore Suburbs

 

35%

 

53%

 

12%

 

Washington Suburbs

 

65%

 

19%

 

16%

 

Western MD

 

45%

 

38%

 

17%

 

 

 

 

 

White

 

45%

 

42%

 

13%

 

African-American

 

50%

 

38%

 

12%

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

47%

 

41%

 

12%

 

Women

 

47%

 

39%

 

14%

 

 

 

****    519 Likely 2002 Democratic Primary Voters    ****

 

 

 

QUESTION:  If the 2002 Democratic primary for Governor were held today, and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend were running against a ticket comprised of Prince Georges County Executive Wayne Curry for Governor and  Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan for Lieutenant Governor, for whom would you vote:  Kathleen Kennedy Townsend or a Wayne Curry/Doug Duncan ticket?

 

                             Townsend                      55%

                             Curry/Duncan               21%

                             Undecided                     24%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

QUESTION:  If the 2002 Democratic primary for Governor were held today, and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend were running against a ticket comprised of Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan for Governor and Prince Georges County Executive Wayne Curry for Lieutenant Governor, for whom would you vote:  Kathleen Kennedy Townsend or a Doug Duncan/Wayne Curry ticket?

 

                             Townsend                      57%

                             Duncan/Curry               20%

                             Undecided                     23%