Gonzales RM&S
Research &
Communications, Inc.
2002
Democratic Primary
Contact: Carol Arscott 410-461-5744
Methodology
Patrick E. Gonzales and
Carol A. Arscott formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at
the beginning of 1999.
Gonzales is a 1981 graduate
of the
This survey was conducted by
Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from May 9th
through
The margin for error,
according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 4.5
percentage points. This means that there
is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this
range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any
demographic subgroup, such as gender, or race.
|
Gender |
Race |
Region |
|
Male 240
(46%) |
White 347
(67%) |
EastShore/So MD 58
(11%) |
|
Female 279
(54%) |
Black 166
(32%) |
|
|
|
Other 6 |
|
|
|
|
WashingtonSuburbs 167
(32%) |
|
|
|
|
General
Summary & Analysis
The
political observers who have been wondering if anyone was capable of stopping
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend on her seemingly inexorable march toward the
Democratic gubernatorial nomination may have found their candidate in Martin
O’Malley, the charismatic young mayor of the City of
In
a surge from nowhere reminiscent of his 1999 campaign for mayor, O’Malley, in
his first appearance in a Gonzales RM&S statewide survey, captures 40% of
the vote to Townsend’s 47%, getting as close as any opponent ever has to
overtaking the Lieutenant Governor’s juggernaut. This is particularly notable in light of the
disparity in name recognition between the two Irish-American pols. Townsend is known to nearly all of the state’s
Democratic primary voters (92%), while O’Malley is known to but two-thirds of
his party’s decision-makers (67%).
O’Malley
beats Townsend handily in
Townsend
edges O’Malley 45% to 42% among white voters in the Democratic primary, and
holds a 12% lead (50% to 38%) among African-Americans, who have provided
Townsend with a solid base in previous surveys.
And there is no gender gap whatsoever – both men and women give Townsend
47% of their vote in a contest with O’Malley.
There
has been periodic speculation among the chattering classes about the power of
an alliance between Montgomery County Executive Doug Duncan and
The
obligatory cast-of-thousands match-up was posed before the head-to-heads
outlined above, following the name ID section and the job performance
questions. This included Baltimore
County Executive Dutch Ruppersberger as well as the aforementioned
candidates. Townsend stays on top with
40% of the Democratic primary vote, followed by O’Malley with 19%, Curry with
9%, Ruppersberger with 8%, and Duncan with 7%.
The remaining 17% are undecided.
In our August 2000 gubernatorial primary survey, without O’Malley,
Townsend led with 49%.
Doug
Duncan’s public musings about his candidacy seem to have taken a toll with the
voters, as he has slipped in the standings, from 12% to 7%. Curry held his own, drawing virtually all his
support from the DC suburbs.
Ruppersberger, on the other hand, picks up nothing in the
Whether
Martin O’Malley actually enters the gubernatorial fray in
Kathleen
Kennedy Townsend began this contest with a big head start, owing to her
near-universal name identification.
Martin O’Malley nearly erases her lead even without matching her
superior name ID numbers. If O’Malley
decides to make this race, political observers everywhere will be in for a
terrific show.
**** 519 Likely 2002 Democratic Primary
Voters ****
Name Recognition
I am going to read you the names of several individuals. After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person. If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.
|
|
Favorable |
Unfavorable |
Neutral |
Don’t Recognize |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
63% |
14% |
15% |
8% |
|
|
41% |
6% |
21% |
32% |
|
|
Dutch Ruppersberger |
25% |
13% |
16% |
46% |
|
Wayne Curry |
20% |
5% |
30% |
45% |
|
Doug Duncan |
18% |
3% |
29% |
50% |
Question: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Kathleen Kennedy
Townsend is doing as Lieutenant Governor?
Approve 69%
Disapprove 11%
No
opinion 20%
Question: Do you approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is
doing as Mayor of
Approve 53%
Disapprove 16%
No
opinion 31%
**** 519 Likely 2002 Democratic Primary
Voters ****
QUESTION: If the 2002 Democratic primary for Governor were
held today, and the candidates were Wayne Curry, Doug Duncan, Martin O’Malley,
Dutch Ruppersberger, and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, for whom would you vote?
|
|
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend |
Martin O’Malley |
Wayne Curry |
Dutch Ruppers-berger |
Doug |
Undecided |
Statewide
|
40% |
19% |
9% |
8% |
7% |
17% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
38% |
17% |
2% |
12% |
7% |
24% |
|
|
|
44% |
38% |
4% |
1% |
- |
13% |
|
|
34% |
30% |
1% |
17% |
- |
18% |
|
|
44% |
2% |
24% |
- |
19% |
11% |
|
|
38% |
17% |
- |
12% |
7% |
26% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
31% |
21% |
8% |
12% |
10% |
18% |
|
|
59% |
16% |
10% |
- |
- |
15% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
42% |
15% |
8% |
10% |
7% |
18% |
|
|
Women |
38% |
23% |
10% |
6% |
7% |
16% |
**** 519 Likely 2002 Democratic Primary
Voters ****
QUESTION: If the 2002 Democratic primary for Governor were held
today, and the candidates were Martin O’Malley and Kathleen Kennedy Townsend,
for whom would you vote?
|
|
Kathleen Kennedy Townsend |
Martin O’Malley |