Gonzales RM&S

Research & Communications, Inc

Maryland Poll

February 2001

Contact: Carol Arscott 410-461-5744

Methodology

Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott, the former president and vice president of Mason-Dixon Campaign Polling & Strategy, Inc., formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999.

Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in the Anne Arundel County Democratic Party who served as a principal advisor to Janet Owens’ 1998 campaign for County Executive. Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party.

Gonzales and Arscott together have over 30 years of professional experience in politics. They have served as pollsters and consultants to dozens of political clients in Maryland since the mid-1980s, including County Executives Janet Owens, Doug Duncan, Jim Harkins, Chuck Ecker, Eileen Rehrmann, and Robert Neall; and State Senators Tom Bromwell, Marty Madden, John Astle, Chris McCabe, and Jean Roesser.

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from February 20^th through February 23^rd, 2001. A total of 511 registered voters in Maryland were interviewed by telephone. All stated they vote regularly in statewide general elections. A cross-section of calls was made into each jurisdiction within the state to reflect general election voting patterns.

The margin for error, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universe were sampled. The margin for error is higher for any demographic subgroup, such as gender, or race.

Ó This survey is provided free of charge. However, we ask that Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. of Annapolis be credited if the survey is cited in a news story or column.

Maryland Statewide Poll Sample Demographics

Gender Male 254 (50%) Female 257 (50%)	Party Democrat 297 (58%) Republican 164 (32%) Independent 50 (10%)
Race White 389 (76%) Black 118 (23%) Other 4	Region Eastern Shore/So. MD 62 (12%) Baltimore City 51 (10%) Baltimore Suburbs 183 (36%) Washington Suburbs 158 (31%) Western MD 57 (11%)

Regional Groupings

Eastern Shore/Southern Maryland - includes voters in these counties: Calvert, Caroline, Cecil, Charles, Dorchester, Kent, Queen Anne’s, St. Mary’s, Somerset, Talbot, Wicomico, and Worcester.

Baltimore City - includes voters in the City of Baltimore.

Baltimore Suburbs - includes voters in these counties: Anne Arundel, Baltimore, Harford, and Howard.

Washington Suburbs - includes voters in these counties: Montgomery, and Prince George’s.

Western Maryland - includes voters in these counties: Allegany, Carroll, Frederick, Garrett, and Washington.

General Summary & Analysis

George W. Bush

President George W. Bush lost Maryland by 17 percentage points in the 2000 general election. So, how’s he doing with Free State voters one month since his inauguration? The answer: Not bad, considering where he started. Forty-seven percent of Maryland voters surveyed said they approve of the job George W. Bush is doing as president while 34% said they disapprove. The remaining 19% gave no answer.

Whites approve of Bush’s on-the-job performance by a ratio of nearly two-to-one (54% to 29%), while African-Americans said they disapprove of his performance in office by the same ratio (51% to 24%).

Men said they approve of Bush’s job performance as President by a similar two-to-one ratio (53% to 28%), while women are nearly equally divided (41% to 40%). This, again, is an improvement for Bush, who was losing women 2-to-1 in our final survey before the November election.

Maryland’s Republicans are, not surprisingly, downright giddy about their new president, with 75% approving of his performance in office, compared with 12% who disapproved (our last poll had Gore getting 18% of the GOP vote in Maryland). Democrats disapprove, 33% to 46%. Independents were evenly split at 37% in that final poll, and remain closely divided, with 38% approving of Bush’s job performance and 34% disapproving.

Most Important Issue

Saving Social Security always topped the charts no matter what the candidates were discussing, and no matter what the media was covering, during the fall election campaign. It is no surprise, then, that saving Social Security remains the Number One concern of Maryland voters, 24% of whom named that issue as most important in response to an open-ended question asking for “the most important issue facing the President and Congress today.”

The number of voters citing education nearly doubled, from 12% in late October to 22% today, vaulting it to the Number Two position from fourth place in the fall. The economy came in at 17%, holding a steady percentage of the voters since the fall (18% in October). Tax cuts places fourth, cited by 10% of voters as the most important issue in Washington (9% in October). Health care and prescription drugs, cited by 16% in October – good enough for a third place finish during the campaign season – was cited by just 6% in the February survey.

Foreign policy and defense issues (5%), bipartisanship and civility (3%), energy policy and prices (3%), and election reform (1%) rounded out the survey. The remaining 9% offered no answer.

The Bush Tax Plan

Survey respondents were asked a series of questions about the tax cut proposal outlined by President Bush earlier this month, first taking the major components individually, and then putting them together in the package that the President has advanced, and identifying it as his.

In the first question, Maryland voters were told that “under current law, the wages of American workers are taxed at five different rates, ranging from 15% for lower incomes workers to 39.6% for higher income workers.” Respondents were then asked if they would “favor or oppose an across-the-board federal income tax rate cut for taxpayers at all levels.” Fifty-two percent of Maryland voters said they favored an across-the-board rate cut, while 25% said they would oppose it. The remaining 23% gave no answer.

Whites favored a tax rate cut 59% to 20%, while blacks opposed it 42% to 29%. Men (60%) were far more likely to support a rate cut than women (44%), though a plurality of women did support a tax rate cut as well (44% to 31%). Democrats were evenly split, 35% in favor, 35% opposed, and 30% giving no answer. Republicans clearly favor the tax rate cut (86% to 6%), and independents back it by close to a two-to-one ratio (44% to 26%).

The second tax question explained that “some time ago, the Congress established a federal estate tax designed to prevent the accumulation of wealth in families passed from one generation to the next,” and that “[e]states of deceased persons are currently taxed on a sliding scale starting at 37% on amounts about $675,000.” Just 28% of Maryland voters said they favor “the elimination of federal estate taxes” while a clear majority, 58%, are opposed. The remaining 14% offered no answer. Elimination of the federal estate tax is even a loser with Maryland Republicans, favored by only 39% and opposed by 45%.

In the third tax question, survey respondents were told that “the federal government taxes two-earner married couples at a higher rate than two single people earning identical wages,” and that “[t]his is sometimes called the marriage penalty.” An overwhelming majority of Marylanders, 65%, said they would favor “the elimination of the marriage penalty,” while just 14% are opposed. The remaining 21% gave no answer.

The major components of the plan were then pulled together in a single question which read as follows: “As you may know, President Bush has proposed a 10-year, 1.6 trillion dollar tax cut package that includes a rate cut for all taxpayers, with new tax rates ranging from a low of 10% to a high of 33%; a doubling of the per-child tax credit to $1000; a reduction of the marriage penalty; and elimination of the federal estate tax in 2009. It would also permit taxpayers who do not itemize to deduct charitable contributions.”

When asked whether they favored or opposed the tax cut package, 49% of Maryland voters said they backed Bush’s plan, 36% opposed it, and the remaining 15% gave no answer. The overall plan is backed strongly by Republicans (84% to 7%), and in majority fashion by whites (56% to 32%) and men (55% to 31%). Women (43% to 41%) and independents (36% to 34%) support the plan narrowly. Bush’s tax cut package is opposed by African-Americans (50% to 26%) and by Democrats (52% to 32%).

The Electoral College

The next series of questions probe voter sentiment about the much-maligned and suddenly relevant electoral college in the wake of the controversial 2000 presidential election.

The first of three questions featured a straight explanation of the current system and asked whether voters in Maryland favored or opposed it: “As you may know, presidential election are decided based on the electoral college, a system where each state has a number of votes equal to the number of congressional districts in that state, plus two ‘bonus’ votes for each state. All but two states operate under a ‘winner-take-all’ system, where all of a state’s electoral votes are awarded to the candidate who wins the popular vote in that state.” The current system wins the favor of 57% of Marylanders, while 18% said they oppose the electoral college, and the remaining 25% gave no answer. Republicans (67%) were more likely to support the status quo, but the differences among the remaining demographic subgroups were insignificant.

The electoral vote apportioning system employed by the states of Nebraska and Maine was described to respondents in the second question in this section, where “[t]he winner of the popular vote in each of congressional district wins one vote, and the overall winner of the state is awarded the state’s two ‘bonus’ votes.” When asked whether they would “favor or oppose this applying this system nationally,” 46% said they favored such a change while 16% opposed it, and the remaining 38% offered no answer. Among the survey’s demographic subgroups, the percentage opposed to an apportioning system was virtually unchanged, with just a three-point range, from 14% to 17%. The percentage favoring the modified system was identical for men and women at 46%, but varied according to party affiliation: 41% for Democrats, 54% for Republicans, and 48% for independents.

However, when told how the application of this modified system to Maryland would have affected the distribution of the electoral vote, sentiment changed considerably. When informed that Al Gore would have been awarded seven electoral votes and Bush would have been awarded three -- whereas Gore had won all ten votes under the current system -- just 33% favored the modified model while 55% opposed it. The remaining 12% gave no answer. Republicans were enthusiastic about the possibilities, favoring a Maine/Nebraska system 70% to 15%, but Democrats were even more adamantly opposed (76% to 13%).

2004 Democratic Primary

A Democratic primary contest between former Vice President Al Gore and New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton would result in a 2:1 victory for Gore if the election were held today. Forty-three percent of Democrats surveyed said they would back Gore, while 22% would choose Clinton, and 35% were undecided.

When the field was expanded to include “some other candidate,” Clinton’s numbers remained virtually static (21%) while Gore’s slipped to 38%. “Some other candidate” earned 11% of the votes of Maryland’s Democrats, while 30% were undecided – not an entirely unreasonable sentiment.

National Issues

QUESTION: Do you approve or disapprove of the job George W. Bush is doing as president?

	Approve	Disapprove	No answer
Statewide	47%	34%	19%
White	54%	29%	17%
African-American	24%	51%	25%
Men	53%	28%	19%
Women	41%	40%	19%
Democrat	33%	46%	21%
Republican	75%	12%	13%
Independent	38%	34%	28%

Most Important Issue

QUESTION: In your opinion, what is the most important issue facing the President and Congress today?

Social Security/Medicare 24%

Education 22%

The economy 17%

Tax cuts 10%

Health care/prescription drugs 6%

Foreign Policy/National defense 5%

Bipartisanship/Civility/New tone in DC 3%

Energy Prices/Policy 3%

Election reform 1%

No answer 9%

QUESTION: Under current law, the wages of American workers are taxed at five different rates ranging from 15% for lower income workers to 39.6% for higher income workers. Do you favor or oppose an across-the-board federal income tax rate cut for taxpayers at all levels?

	Favor	Oppose	No answer
Statewide	52%	25%	23%
White	59%	20%	21%
African-American	29%	42%	29%
Men	60%	19%	21%
Women	44%	31%	25%
Democrat	35%	35%	30%
Republican	86%	6%	8%
Independent	44%	26%	30%

QUESTION: Some time ago, the Congress established a federal estate tax designed to prevent the accumulation of wealth in families passed from one generation to the next. Estates of deceased persons are currently taxed on a sliding scale starting at 37% on amounts above $675,000. Do you favor or oppose the elimination of federal estate taxes?

	Favor	Oppose	No answer
Statewide	28%	58%	14%
White	32%	55%	13%
African-American	14%	69%	17%
Men	31%	56%	13%
Women	25%	60%	15%
Democrat	22%	65%	13%
Republican	39%	45%	16%
Independent	28%	60%	12%

QUESTION: As you may know, the federal government taxes two-earner married couples at a higher rate than two single people earning identical wages. This is sometimes called the marriage penalty. Do you favor or oppose the elimination of the marriage penalty?

	Favor	Oppose	No answer
Statewide	65%	14%	21%
White	67%	13%	20%
African-American	59%	17%	24%
Men	66%	15%	19%
Women	64%	13%	23%
Democrat	63%	16%	21%
Republican	71%	10%	19%
Independent	62%	14%	24%

QUESTION: As you may know, President Bush has proposed a 10-year, 1.6 trillion dollar tax cut package that includes a rate cut for all taxpayers, with new tax rates ranging from a low of 10% to a high of 33%; a doubling of the per-child tax credit to $1000; a reduction of the marriage penalty; and elimination of the federal estate tax in 2009. It would also permit taxpayers who do not itemize to deduct charitable contributions. Do you favor or oppose this tax cut package?

	Favor	Oppose	No answer
Statewide	49%	36%	15%
White	56%	32%	14%
African-American	26%	50%	16%
Men	55%	31%	12%
Women	43%	41%	24%
Democrat	32%	52%	16%
Republican	84%	7%	9%
Independent	36%	34%	30%

QUESTION: As you may know, presidential elections are decided based on the electoral college, a system where each state has a number of votes equal to the number of congressional districts in that state, plus two “bonus” votes for each state. All but two states operate under a “winner-take-all” system, where all of a state’s electoral votes are awarded to the candidate who wins the popular vote in that state. Do you favor or oppose the electoral college system?

	Favor	Oppose	No answer
Statewide	57%	18%	25%
Men	56%	20%	24%
Women	58%	16%	26%
Democrat	52%	21%	27%
Republican	67%	13%	20%
Independent	56%	16%	28%

QUESTION: As you may know, two states – Nebraska and Maine – apportion their states’ electoral votes by congressional district. The winner of the popular vote in each congressional district wins one vote, and the overall winner of the state is awarded the states’ two “bonus” votes. Would you favor or oppose applying this system nationally?

	Favor	Oppose	No answer
Statewide	46%	16%	38%
Men	46%	17%	37%
Women	46%	15%	39%
Democrat	41%	17%	42%
Republican	54%	15%	31%
Independent	48%	14%	38%

QUESTION: Under the current electoral college system, all ten of Maryland’s electoral votes were won by Al Gore. Under the modified electoral college system described above, Maryland’s 10 electoral votes would have been distributed differently. George W. Bush won the popular vote in three congressional districts, while Al Gore won the popular vote in five. Therefore, Bush would have been awarded three electoral votes, while Gore would have been awarded seven, the five from the congressional districts he won, and the two “bonus” votes. Would you favor or oppose applying a modified electoral college system in Maryland?

	Favor	Oppose	No answer
Statewide	33%	55%	12%
Men	38%	49%	13%
Women	28%	61%	11%
Democrat	13%	76%	11%
Republican	70%	15%	15%
Independent	32%	56%	12%

Asked of Democrats Only

QUESTION: If the 2004 Democratic primary for president were held today, for whom would you vote if the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton and Al Gore?

	Gore	Clinton	Undecided
Statewide	43%	22%	35%
Men	49%	16%	35%
Women	37%	27%	36%

QUESTION: If the 2004 Democratic primary for president were hold today, would you cast your vote for Hillary Rodham Clinton, for Al Gore, or for some other candidate?

	Gore	Clinton	Someone Else	Undecided
Statewide	38%	21%	11%	30%
Men	43%	15%	11%	31%
Women	33%	26%	11%	30%