Gonzales RM&S

Research & Communications, Inc.

 

 

 

 

Maryland Poll

Part 3

 

Baltimore City State’s Attorney  Race – Democratic Primary

Prince George’s County Executive Race – Democratic Primary

 

August 2002

 

 

 

 

 

Contact:     Carol Arscott      410-461-5744

 

 

Methodology

 

 

Patrick E. Gonzales and Carol A. Arscott formed Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. at the beginning of 1999. 

 

Gonzales is a 1981 graduate of the University of Baltimore with deep roots in Anne Arundel County politics.  Arscott is a 1977 graduate of the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service and a former chairman of the Howard County Republican Party. 

 

This survey was conducted by Gonzales Research & Marketing Strategies, Inc. from August 10th through August 18th, 2002.  A total of 344 registered Democratic voters in Baltimore City, Maryland and 328 registered Democratic voters in Prince George’s County, Maryland who indicated they were likely to vote in this year’s September 10th Democratic primary election were interviewed by telephone.  Cross-sections of calls were made into each jurisdiction to reflect Democratic primary election voting patterns.

 

The margin of error for each sample, according to customary statistical standards, is no more than plus or minus 5.5 percentage points.  This means that there is a 95 percent probability that the “true” figures would fall within this range if the entire survey universes were sampled. 

 

Baltimore City Democratic Primary Poll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

 

Male         154   (45%)

 

White                         113    (33%)

Female      190   (55%)

African-American     222    (65%)

 

Other/Ref                      9   

 

 

Prince George’s County Democratic Primary Poll Sample Demographics

 

Gender

Race

 

Male         145   (44%)

 

White                         105    (32%)

Female      183   (56%)

African-American     215    (66%)

 

Other/Ref                      8   

 

Analysis

 

 

Baltimore City State's Attorney Democratic Primary

 

Embattled incumbent State's Attorney Patricia Jessamy is locked in a virtual three-way tie with her two Democratic primary rivals three weeks from the September 10 primary election.  Twenty-nine percent favor Jessamy, 27% choose City Councilwoman Lisa Stancil, and 26% opt for former assistant State's Attorney Anton Keating in the primary contest.  Eighteen percent are undecided.

 

Jessamy (30%) and Stancil (33%), who are African-Americans, both get larger shares of the black vote than Keating (18%), who is white.  But Keating is winning 41% of the white vote, compared with 27% for Jessamy and 15% for Stancil.  Keating (33%) gets a larger share of the men's vote than Jessamy (25%) or Stancil (26%), while Jessamy (33%) and Stancil (28%) do better with women than Keating (20%).

 

Jessamy is the best-known candidate in the race, with 90% overall name ID, but her unfavorable rating, at 32%, is high compared to her 42% favorable ranking.  Similarly, her job approval/disapproval numbers are uncomfortably close, with 45% approving of the job Jessamy is doing as State's Attorney, and 36% saying they disapprove.  Stancil's name is recognized by 74% of City Democratic primary voters, and Keating's by 62%.

 

Jessamy is clearly in trouble three weeks from primary election day, and will need to recapture some momentum and hope neither of her opponents breaks away from the pack in the stretch.

 

Martin O'Malley

 

Mayor Martin O'Malley's name is recognized by nearly all (99%) of Democratic primary voters in the City, 61% favorably, 16% unfavorably, and 22% neutrally.  His job approval numbers are just as good:  Sixty-six percent approve of the job O'Malley is doing as mayor, 17% disapprove, and 17% gave no answer. 

 

 

Prince George's County Executive Democratic Primary

 

In a race with five high-profile combatants, County State's Attorney Jack Johnson leads the field with 24% of the Democratic primary vote, with former fire chief Jim Estepp at 19%, former Glendening chief of staff Major Riddick at 18%, former delegate and mega-church minister Anthony Muse at 13%, and Prince George's County Delegation chairman Rushern Baker at 9%.  Seventeen percent remain undecided.

 

Johnson is the best known of the five candidates, with 87% overall name ID, and 43% who recognize him favorably.  Estepp's name is recognized by 69%, and his unfavorables are the lowest of the quintet of candidates at 5%.  Riddick was recognized by 71% and Muse by 74%, but both had unfavorables in the teens (15% for Riddick, 19% for Muse).  Baker, the favorite of Annapolis insiders, was recognized by just 55% of Democratic primary voters.

 

Estepp, the only white candidate in the race, is capturing 45% of the white vote, while Riddick gets 17%, and Baker gets 12%.  Johnson earns only 6% of the white vote, and Muse just 1%.  Nineteen percent of white voters are undecided.  The black vote – 66% of the electorate – is distributed differently.  Johnson leads with 33% of African-Americans, with Muse at 19%, Riddick at 18%, Baker at 8% and Estepp at 6%.  Sixteen percent remain undecided.  Riddick appears to be the candidate with the most cross-racial appeal.

 

Endorsements generate a lot of publicity but don't usually make a great deal of difference to the voters.  Congressman Al Wynn's endorsement of Jack Johnson causes 18% of Democratic primary voters to be more likely to vote for him, but 15% to be less likely.  Sixty-seven percent said that Wynn's endorsement made no difference to them.  Similarly, 14% of primary voters said that the Washington Post's endorsement of Rushern Baker would make them more likely to vote for the delegate, while 10% said they would be less likely to do so.  Seventy-six percent said the Post's nod made no difference to them.

 

 

Miller and Wynn

 

Congressman Al Wynn has supplanted State Senate President Thomas V. Mike Miller as the political godfather of Prince George's County.  Fifty-seven percent of Democratic primary voters in the county have a favorable impression of Wynn, with 13% holding a negative view.  Twenty-one percent are neutral on the Congressman, and just 9% don't recognize his name.

 

Miller, who no longer lives in the county but still plays power politics there, is recognized by just 62% of Democratic primary voters these days, 29% favorably, 16% unfavorably, and 17% neutrally, the remaining 38% didn't recognize Miller's name. 

 

 

 

 

**********   344 Likely Baltimore City Democratic Primary Voters   **********

 

Name Recognition

 

I am going to read you the names of several individuals.  After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person.  If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

 

 

 

Favorable

 

Unfavorable

 

Neutral

Don’t Recognize

 

 

 

 

 

Patricia Jessamy

42%

32%

16%

10%

Lisa Stancil

31%

19%

24%

26%

Anton Keating

27%

10%

25%

38%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Martin O’Malley

 

61%

 

16%

 

22%

 

1%

 

 

 

QUESTION:  If the Democratic primary election for Baltimore City State’s Attorney were held today, for whom would you vote:  Patricia Jessamy, Anton Keating, or Lisa Stancil?

 

 

 

Jessamy

 

Stancil

 

Keating

 

Undecided

 

Citywide

 

29%

 

27%

 

26%

 

18%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Men

 

25%

 

26%

 

33%

 

16%

 

Women

 

33%

 

28%

 

20%

 

19%

 

 

 

 

 

 

White

 

27%

 

15%

 

41%

 

17%

African-American

 

30%

 

33%

 

18%

 

19%

 

 

**********   344 Likely Baltimore City Democratic Primary Voters   **********

 

 

QUESTION:  Do you approve or disapprove of the job Patricia Jessamy is doing as Baltimore City State’s Attorney?

 

                                                Approve          45%

                                                Disapprove     36%

                                                No answer      19%

 

 

 

 

 

QUESTION:  Do you approve or disapprove of the job Martin O’Malley is doing as Baltimore City Mayor?

                                                Approve          66%

                                                Disapprove     17%

                                                No answer      17%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

**********   328 Likely Prince George’s County Democratic Primary Voters   **********

 

Name Recognition

 

I am going to read you the names of several individuals.  After I mention each name, I would like you to tell me if you recognize that person.  If you do, I would then like you to tell me whether you have a favorable, unfavorable, or neutral opinion of that individual.

 

 

 

 

Favorable

 

Unfavorable

 

Neutral

Don’t Recognize

 

 

 

 

 

 

Jack Johnson

 

43%

 

17%

 

27%

 

13%

 

Jim Estepp

 

33%

 

5%

 

31%

 

31%

 

Major Riddick

 

32%

 

15%

 

24%

 

29%

 

Anthony Muse

 

27%

 

19%

 

28%

 

26%

 

Rushern Baker

 

17%

 

6%

 

32%

 

45%

 

 

 

 

 

 

Al Wynn

 

57%

 

13%

 

21%

 

9%

 

Mike Miller

 

29%

 

16%

 

17%

 

38%

 

 

 

 

 

 

**********   328 Likely Prince George’s County Democratic Primary Voters   **********

 

 

QUESTION:  If the Democratic primary election for Pronce George’s County Executive were held today, for whom would you vote:  Rushern Baker, Jim Estepp, Jack Johnson, Anthony Muse, or Major Riddick?

 

 

 

Johnson

 

Estepp

 

Riddick

 

Muse

 

Baker

 

Undecided

 

Countywide

 

24%

 

19%

 

18%

 

13%

 

9%

 

17%